"Expert" Predictions They Wish You Would Forget

[Parokki]

Grampy said:

totalwar23 said:
Pssh, we all know the huge Wii sales can't last. Sure the sales show no signs of stopping and sure it might even be increasing but it's so obvious that at some point in time, the sales rate will have a magical drop off. The slope of the drop will be so steep that it will be it becomes a mathematical impossibility and will be represent as a discontinuity across the graph line. We just have to keep on waiting for this point in time. It's coming. When? I don't know, but it's coming and all of these predictions will be ultimately be proven correct. That's my analysis.

 

There we go again. I can't tell if this is written as satire, or you are certifiably delusional. If serious there are a few problems with your analysis.First no one has identified anything that will abruptly reverse the Wii’s upward trend. GTA IV was supposed to but instead drove it to all time highs. The market saturation argument that suddenly demand will collapse is untenable. You see, the sign of collapsing demand is units sitting on the shelf, NOT people lined up in the parking lot waiting for the store to open.

Sales of anything don’t just suddenly and magically plummet, people are just not that organized.

And lastly, you are aware of the impossibility of sales predictions coming true if the predicted sales for 2012 have already been doubled in 2008. Even theoretically, the only possible scenario would be a massive buyback program by Nintendo. Yeah, that'll happen.

Welcome to VG Chartz. You might want to spend a few more days getting to know people before guessing if they're serious or not with the outrageous things they say. =P

A good way to know is a person's game collection and signature. If there are only PS3 games in both, then they might seriously think their console is suddenly going to turn things around, but more variety usually means more perspective. I suppose you could do it the other way too, but predictions of the Wii's victory tend to be less unrealistic for obvious reasons.