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Forums - Gaming - "Expert" Predictions They Wish You Would Forget

Grampy on 09 May 2008

Depending on your point of view, it is either scary or hilarious how clueless some high paid industry “experts” can be. People and developers pay good money for these opinions; which probably explains all lot of what wrong in the industry.I’ve got a couple of great “My God, I wish everyone would forget I ever said this,” that I’m going to post for your entertainment and their embarrassment.Periodically I’ll post more howlers but I hope others will post ones they have found.

______________ BAD ANALYSIS THEATER___________

“The Nintendo Wii is almost a non-factor. It will only have 23.3 million units sold through 2012.”
by Kyle Orland Joystiq http://www.joystiq.com/2006/11/16/analyst-sony-to-win-big-in-long-run/


“I think the Wii bubble is about to burst”
-Steve Kent, Author of ‘Ultimate History of Video Games (early 2007)

 
“Nintendo Revolution to be console winner this generation”
–Gamespot’s 2005 April Fool’s Joke.
And remember this is how they make their livings

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Onyxmeth on 09 May 2008

Keep 'em coming. That first one was golden. 121 million PS3's sold by 2012? Good luck with that Sony. This does shed a new light on key developers pushing the Wii aside as a non-factor. Any developer that used this firm would have promptly planted themself in the 360 and PS3 multiplat court and figured the Wii would have been another Gamecube.



Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.



mesoteto on 09 May 2008

what is sad is some people still stand by these



 

Naum on 09 May 2008

I love that so called april's fools joke topic



If it isn't turnbased it isn't worth playing   (mostly)

And shepherds we shall be,

For Thee, my Lord, for Thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand, That our feet may swiftly carry out Thy command. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomine Patris, et Filii, et Spiritūs Sancti. -----The Boondock Saints

dib8rman on 09 May 2008

Ouch mesoteto, what was the bet again?

Anyway Patcher sais the PS3 will



I'm Unamerica and you can too.

The Official Huge Monster Hunter Thread: 



The Hunt Begins 4/20/2010 =D

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Grampy on 09 May 2008

Here are a couple howlers for the DS. You'll note that one is by one of the biggest names in the industry.

___________ BAD ANALYSIS THEATER for th DS_______

 

“I can’t understand why two screens are required rather than a split screen.” He went on to say, “Everyone will produce at least one game on the DS in order to learn the mechanics, but if it launches with 12 games, it will look a lot like the N-Gage.” (The DS would launch with six.) "I think that PSP will be a category killer with older gamers.
-Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan

 

 

 “Some industry insiders were less kind, comparing the DS to Nintendo's greatest hardware debacle, the Virtual Boy. "The DS sounds very gimmicky to me," a source at a major publisher told GameSpot. "It's like a 'Crazy Ivan' response to the PSP.”
 -Gamespot News covering the unveiling of the DS

Viper1 on 09 May 2008

Enjoy. IDC near the bottom is the only one to even come close to a decent prediction.

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=16280


Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

IDC (Worldwide Through 2008)
Nintendo Wii - 32.1 million (37%)
Xbox 360 - 30.4 million (35%)
Sony PS3 - 24.5 million (28%)
Total - 87 million

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million



The rEVOLution is not being televised

BrainBoxLtd on 09 May 2008
Naum said:
I love that so called april's fools joke topic

 Yes, it's hilarious that a huge joke article on Gamespot ended up being a more accurate analysis than most "professional" analysts. Here's probably my favorite part of it.

"Remember, today's gamers grew up playing Mario Bros. and Zelda, some of the best games of all time. They're out there now as the industry's main consumers. The ability to play thousands of games, all priced in the five-dollar range, without leaving the house is very attractive. Gamers don't want to buy a PS3. They prefer a good system with nostalgia over a system with prettier graphics. Games are meant to be one thing--fun." 

Games meaning to be fun apparently is a joke to Gamespot. =P 



Parokki on 09 May 2008

Grampy said:

“The Nintendo Wii is almost a non-factor. It will only have 23.3 million units sold through 2012.”
by Kyle Orland Joystiq http://www.joystiq.com/2006/11/16/analyst-sony-to-win-big-in-long-run/


Well GTA4 just killed the Wii, and I can't see any more than a couple of dozen console more ever getting sold, so they were only wrong by 2 million or so. Pretty good really.



Grampy on 09 May 2008

I love that list Viper1. What do these clowns use? Ouija boards?