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Forums - General - Yet Another Math One

nintendo_fanboy said:

read my post, Samuel. The box where you are not standing unites the third chance of itself and the third chance of the revealed box.

and jlauro, you haven't read the rules right I think...


Here are the all rules that were given:

The host now tells you if you pick the right box, you win the grand prize. If you pick one of the other two... you go home empty handed.

 

I didn't read the rules, except what was stated.Where does it say you get to pick again if you pick the wrong box? or that the box changes? Sorry, I am not familiar with this game, if the above isn't the rules, where are the full rules??? He didn't go home empty handed after picking the first time, so he must of already picked correctly.

 

 



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nintendo_fanboy said:

sorry, this one is too classic. you have to change, because you had a chance of 1/3 to pick the right box at the beginning. after he reveals one wrong box, the remaining box contains not only it's own third chance to be the right one, but also the third chance of the other box, which makes it 2/3.

Probably this is too complicated, so I'll show all possible situations:
(x=you, A/B/C boxes, assuming the price is behind A)

1. Situation:

A X
B
C

The moderator either opens B or C. Here you loose if you change, because you were standing on the right box.


Besides for that fact that repicking is in violation of the rules...

That is two different situations. First, he picks B, second he picks C. So there are 4 situations total. Two of them are good if you stay where you are, and two of them are good if you move.

Even if you ignore the rules, it is still 50 / 50.



jlauro said:
nintendo_fanboy said:

read my post, Samuel. The box where you are not standing unites the third chance of itself and the third chance of the revealed box.

and jlauro, you haven't read the rules right I think...


Here are the all rules that were given:

The host now tells you if you pick the right box, you win the grand prize. If you pick one of the other two... you go home empty handed.

 


This is the basic rule, but if you read on in the original post, you will see that after you have made your choice, the host reveals one box and then he gives you the chance to change. Clear?

As for your other post, the chance for situation 1a and 1b is 1/6 each, which makes it 1/3 together and therefore equal to the other two situations. You decide which situation you get, you either go on A, B or C. It's one third that you go on A, and then it's fifty-fifty if the moderator reveals B or C.



Currently Playing: Skies of Arcadia Legends (GC), Dragon Quest IV (DS)

Last Game beaten: The Rub Rabbits(DS)

DRJ said:
Yeah you switch cause the announcer has a limited choice, he can only pick one that doesnt have the item. Since his choice is constrained you get better odds. An easy way to look at it is if there were 100 boxes and you picked 1, then the announcer says I will open 98 that don't have the item, then do you want to switch. The choice would be very obvious.

 Yes.  It's obvious he can't show something with the prize to show you lost so you want to stay where you are.  :)



nintendo_fanboy said:
jlauro said:
nintendo_fanboy said:

read my post, Samuel. The box where you are not standing unites the third chance of itself and the third chance of the revealed box.

and jlauro, you haven't read the rules right I think...


Here are the all rules that were given:

The host now tells you if you pick the right box, you win the grand prize. If you pick one of the other two... you go home empty handed.

 


This is the basic rule, but if you read on in the original post, you will see that after you have made your choice, the host reveals one box and then he gives you the chance to change. Clear?

As for your other post, the chance for situation 1a and 1b is 1/6 each, which makes it 1/3 together and therefore equal to the other two situations. You decide which situation you get, you either go on A, B or C. It's one third that you go on A, and then it's fifty-fifty if the moderator reveals B or C.


Ok, so that's 2/6 chance you are right...

He eliminates 1/3 (or 2/6) chance of wrong... so it's out of 4 instead of out of 6...

 

That drops it to 2/4 chance right, and 2/4 chance wrong. It's 50/50.



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NO.
You're box stays at 1/3. This was your inital chance to get it right. The other two are together 2/3, and they remain 2/3 even if one of them is eliminated.

I'm tired of explaining it... can someone else go on for me?



Currently Playing: Skies of Arcadia Legends (GC), Dragon Quest IV (DS)

Last Game beaten: The Rub Rabbits(DS)

Another way to look at it... With your initial pick, there is a 1/3 chance you were right, and a 2/3 chance you were wrong. If you were right initially, the correct move is to stay where you are. If you were wrong initially, the right move is to switch to the correct box after the host removes one of the wrong ones. So 1 time out of 3, the right move is to pick a box and stay there. The other 2 times, the right move is to switch. So by the odds, you should always switch.



nintendo_fanboy said:

NO.
You're box stays at 1/3. This was your inital chance to get it right. The other two are together 2/3, and they remain 2/3 even if one of them is eliminated.

I'm tired of explaining it... can someone else go on for me?


 Don't be silly, one of the empty boxes was revealed.  It improves the odds you were right.  In fact it greatly improves it, because it was very likely you were on the right box.

 

You were right:

He picks other box a

He picks other box b

 

You were wrong

He only has one other box

 

Wow!  You have a 2/3 chance of being right if you stay with your first pick!  because the announcer only had one choice to pick if you guessed wrong.    ;) 



the question is who is silly here. I have to go now, but take another look at my first post. I described three different situations. The chance that one of this three situations comes true is one third, they are equal. In two of this three situations, you win if you change. This makes the chance to win 2/3 if you change, and 1/3 if you stay.



Currently Playing: Skies of Arcadia Legends (GC), Dragon Quest IV (DS)

Last Game beaten: The Rub Rabbits(DS)

If the host tells you to pick the right box, then why wouldn't you pick the right box?