Ok so you get MGS4 then you wait for... ? The only other big name left is R1 all the others are new ips or weaker franchises.

Xbox360 gets ninja gaiden - a 2nd tier franchise behind GTA/Gears etc they also get a couple of weaker exclusives around this time.

But you're seriously forgetting how many exclusives and big games are coming towards the end of the year. Gears 2 is an AAA game could do up to 7 million copies. Left 4 dead is made by valve another AAA studio, if they score under 90 for it I will be shocked. Gears 2 and SC - Conviction will sell more than R1 and MGS4 I can almost certainly predict.

They have SC - Conviction; Could easily tap into the market of people that loved ACreed and series fans and sell 3million++ TOO Human looks very good, Velvett assassin probably one of the first unique shooters this generation in HD all coming probably q3.

They also have Sacred 2 coming, an action RPG for those people who are craving one like me. My last one was Dark kingdom that I played. Pretty good series too.

PS3 will dominate in Europe and Japan, 360 will probably keep a solid lead in the US because of its head start. PS3 will beat the 360 overall in the end, but it will never reach anything close to PS2 while 360 will do much better than the xbox. Most games not developed by Sony or Microsoft will be multiplatform.

So yes PS3 will beat 360 in sales, but it still feels like more of a win for Microsoft than for Sony since it improved over last generation.

The GTAIV DLC is not Microsofts last stand, you can believe that if you want though.

Personally, i think the only thing the ps3 has over the 360 this year is only MGS4.
Those guys at Sony are going to start worrying at Xmas time when their wishes of domination don't come true.

Banjo 3, Gears 2, Ninja Gaiden 2 alone is a brilliant line up.

Sony's line up is excellent too but i don't think you can say that it is far better.

Personally, i will be picking up a ps3 for MGS4 and the other titles i have missed so far, but remember what the 360 has, and it is damn good.

Consider the following timeline:

PS3 passes the Xbox 360 in LTD units sold late in 2009

PS3 has a similar lead over the 360 as the 360 has over the PS3 now (in terms of percentage) sometime in 2011.

Xbox 360 is replaced in late 2011.

This is not an unreasonable time line.  6 years for the Xbox 360 is as long a lifetime as anyone expects.  The PS3 surpassing the 360 in late 2009 is reasonable, perhaps even a little Sony-favored.  The PS3 mounting a lead, percentage wise, over the 360 that's bigger than the current 360 lead by 2011 is unlikely, but it *could* happen.

What does a lead that large mean?  Just about zero, apparently.  Unless games stop selling on the Xbox 360, it is likely to get at least as much third party support as the PS3 does for the rest of this generation. 

Don't forget to subtract the 1.9 million units "shipped" for 2007 that Sony redefined and "unshipped" after Q1 of their fiscal year.  If you recall, they said they "sold 3.6 million units" and "shipped 5.5 million" then they changed their methodology so that 1.9 million unit disparity was shipped again.   

I really cant compare GOW2 with Resistance 2 or Killzone 2.

Gears of War 2 is going to be huge and sell over 9 million lifespan...

Ok so who do we trust here...ioi who runs this site and his numbers or Diomedes1976 who has vg$ -406.70 because his great future sales predictions?

people keep talking dead this, dead that....

so the xbox 360 will have more market share for what? at least one more year (which is 3.5-4 years) before the ps3 overtakes its install base then the next 3-4 years the ps3 will have the bigger install base...so its like they share 50/50 this generation (noting am just saying 3-4 years cause by then we'll be moving on to the next generation of consoles).

so you fanboys can be excited all you want...I honestly find it childish its not like once it overtakes the 360 suddenly the ps3 will get all the exculsives and support will drop for the 360 rapidly....

anyways ya'll can keep looking forward to that day....

I'd trust official numbers. Sure the companys counts shiped and we count sold but thats the only accurate number we'll get.