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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions - When Will PS3 overtake 360 WW?

bu77chen on 29 May 2008

Q4 2009



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Nintendo Zealot on 29 May 2008

Q1 2010



^Guy pissing on Microsoft Sign

UBISOFT BOYCOTT

Slimebeast on 29 May 2008
makingmusic476 said:
Slimebeast said:

I love the thread! Good that all names and predictions are set in the 1st post. This thread will live for eons!  

Factors to consider:

* Current sales trends hard to interpret. In Q1 this year it seemed like the PS3 would really sustain a stable sales-lead world-wide by 50,000 consoles per week. But then MS dropped price in Europe which reduced the lead, and recent numbers show that post-GTA4 sales of particulary the PS3 have dipped quite a bit (only 20K lead now).

* What happened with Blu-ray? I see hardly anyone talk about "the Blue-ray effect" anymore. Instead there are fears that the HD format on discs will see slow adoption in homes, and people even compare it to Laser-disc.

* Game and console fans like us tend to over-estimate the effect of AAA titles effect on console sales. But time and time again we're shown that the immediate effects are marginal (including Halo 3 and GTA4). Long term effects are harder to track, but I can't see MGS4, GT5 and FF do miracles like Sony-fans still seem to believe.

* Price-drop potential. The 360 should have more potential than the PS3 to drop price, but MS' game division is not showing the big profit it should have if the X360 consoles today really are sold with profit.

So it's hard to predict right now, but for the moment I'm thinking these kind of long term numbers:

PS3 lead in EU/others: 25K per week
PS3 lead in NA: 5K per week
PS3 lead in Jap: 15K per week.
-------------
= 45K per week that the PS3 is outselling the X360 in non-Holiday period. That translates to roughly 130k per week during the 9 Holiday weeks (Nov+Dec).

The total lead for X360 is right now 6.3 million consoles (19 weeks into 2008).

By end of 2008 that lead has shrunk to 6.3 million - (24 x 45K + 9 x 130K) = 6.3 - 2.25 mill = 4.05 million units.

By end of 2009 the lead has shrunk to 4.05 - (43 x 45K + 9 x 130K) = 4.05 - 3.1 mill = 0.95 million units.

The remaining 950K units takes 950K / 45K = 21 weeks to eat up, which is more than 1Q, why the PS3 will overtake the X360 WW in Q2 2010.

So my prediction is Q2 2010.


You seem to be making up numbers.  For the week following GTAIV, the ps3 outsold the 360 by 50k WW, the same as at the beginning of the year.  Also, for the week prior to GTAIV, the ps3 outsold the 360 by ~36k WW.  The week of GTAIV, the ps3 outsold the 360 by ~100k WW.  The difference hasn't been as low as 20k a week in months. 

Hell, last week the ps3 outsold the 360 by 20k in the EU alone.

I expect to see another ~100k difference the week MGS4 hits as well.


lol, "making up numbers". I didn't formulate the sentence properly. I meant that the EU/others numbers have dipped down to a 20K lead for the PS3.



KillerMan on 29 May 2008

Q3 2009



Griffin on 03 June 2008

With all the people on this site i think we need some predictions from the members.



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Imperial on 03 June 2008

Q4 2009 if i'm not too late.



|_emmiwinks on 06 June 2008

Sounds like fun, put me down for Q2 2009. Though depending on the strengths of the Exclusives in Q3 and Q4 of 08 I could see it happening Q1 2009.

 

Or I can go with Starcraft and ignor all reality and say Q2 2010... Nah, put me down for Q2 2009.



I own all three current consoles and a great gaming rig, now thats out of the way.

This space Reserved for the Nuggets of Wisdom dropped by Bladeforce:

"Why post something like this when all it will get is PS3 owners blinded to reality replying? BOTH THE PS3 AND BLUE-RAY WILL NOT LAST 3 YEARS! TECHNOLOGY CHANGED TOO FAST!"

"is it Wii FIt that has sold as many as PS3's sold? Thats a LOL Look at the total sales of software is it just me that sees Nintendo titles hitting 10m+ and you say they arent making a difference? Another LOL!"

"Hell, with all the negative hype Sony spin, people just aren't interested cost is too high and to get the true HD experience (1080p, 7.1 surround) you will need a $1000+ system. THAT IS GOING TO DO IT IN A RECESSION! PS4 will not happen"

Squilliam on 06 June 2008

I say not before the next generation.



Tease.

Snake612 on 06 June 2008

I believe the sales will go up with th releases of little big planet, playstation network cards, playstation home and more exclusives. However, due to the fact that won't all be released simutaneously, it will probably close the gap 2009 or 2010.



TO GOD BE THE GLORY

Ps3_GOW on 08 June 2008

I think it's what most people are saying Q2 2009



You can't help but root for the underdog, GO PS3!

End of 08' Sales

Wii:                      39.56

Xbox 360:           24.75

Playstation 3:     20.58