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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions - When Will PS3 overtake 360 WW?

John_Doe on 21 May 2008

take a look at this

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13772_3-9948454-52.html

lol



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makingmusic476 on 21 May 2008

Btw, Rock_On is listed under Q4 2008 twice.



makingmusic476 on 21 May 2008
Slimebeast said:

I love the thread! Good that all names and predictions are set in the 1st post. This thread will live for eons!  

Factors to consider:

* Current sales trends hard to interpret. In Q1 this year it seemed like the PS3 would really sustain a stable sales-lead world-wide by 50,000 consoles per week. But then MS dropped price in Europe which reduced the lead, and recent numbers show that post-GTA4 sales of particulary the PS3 have dipped quite a bit (only 20K lead now).

* What happened with Blu-ray? I see hardly anyone talk about "the Blue-ray effect" anymore. Instead there are fears that the HD format on discs will see slow adoption in homes, and people even compare it to Laser-disc.

* Game and console fans like us tend to over-estimate the effect of AAA titles effect on console sales. But time and time again we're shown that the immediate effects are marginal (including Halo 3 and GTA4). Long term effects are harder to track, but I can't see MGS4, GT5 and FF do miracles like Sony-fans still seem to believe.

* Price-drop potential. The 360 should have more potential than the PS3 to drop price, but MS' game division is not showing the big profit it should have if the X360 consoles today really are sold with profit.

So it's hard to predict right now, but for the moment I'm thinking these kind of long term numbers:

PS3 lead in EU/others: 25K per week
PS3 lead in NA: 5K per week
PS3 lead in Jap: 15K per week.
-------------
= 45K per week that the PS3 is outselling the X360 in non-Holiday period. That translates to roughly 130k per week during the 9 Holiday weeks (Nov+Dec).

The total lead for X360 is right now 6.3 million consoles (19 weeks into 2008).

By end of 2008 that lead has shrunk to 6.3 million - (24 x 45K + 9 x 130K) = 6.3 - 2.25 mill = 4.05 million units.

By end of 2009 the lead has shrunk to 4.05 - (43 x 45K + 9 x 130K) = 4.05 - 3.1 mill = 0.95 million units.

The remaining 950K units takes 950K / 45K = 21 weeks to eat up, which is more than 1Q, why the PS3 will overtake the X360 WW in Q2 2010.

So my prediction is Q2 2010.


You seem to be making up numbers.  For the week following GTAIV, the ps3 outsold the 360 by 50k WW, the same as at the beginning of the year.  Also, for the week prior to GTAIV, the ps3 outsold the 360 by ~36k WW.  The week of GTAIV, the ps3 outsold the 360 by ~100k WW.  The difference hasn't been as low as 20k a week in months. 

Hell, last week the ps3 outsold the 360 by 20k in the EU alone.

I expect to see another ~100k difference the week MGS4 hits as well.



sdfoxwwe on 21 May 2008

Some people really expect the PS3 to outsell 360 by the end of this year?! Wow. My guess is Q1 2010.



Wii Code: 3408 4607 2609 5588

PSN: Foxwwe

 

jerseyboy609 on 28 May 2008

mid 2009



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The_God_of_War on 28 May 2008

Interesting to note that the difference was 7.5 million back in November. Now, 6 months later, the difference is 5.85 million. So the PS3 has closed the gap by almost 2 million in 6 months, which is pretty impressive. I really think it will happen earlier than Q3 2009, probably Q2.



  

colonelstubbs on 28 May 2008

I would like to predict Q3 2009 please



I hope my 360 doesn't RRoD
         "Suck my balls!" - Tag courtesy of Fkusmot

jerseyboy609 on 28 May 2008
The_God_of_War said:
Interesting to note that the difference was 7.5 million back in November. Now, 6 months later, the difference is 5.85 million. So the PS3 has closed the gap by almost 2 million in 6 months, which is pretty impressive. I really think it will happen earlier than Q3 2009, probably Q2.

you right, change mine from mid, to q2...just think about, MGS4, Killzone 2, Mirrors Edge, PS Home, Little Big Planet, Resistance 2, Motorstorm 2, Socom Confrontation...plus many more will be out by 2009 vs Gears 2

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5aEjrKk3O8

comment and subscibe to my vid



PooperScooper on 28 May 2008

Change mine to Summer '09 (july/end Q2). I think if these adjustments are correct with Ps3 only 5.85 behind then 6 more months and strong holiday sales would put the Ps3 about 3.5 mil behind with it catching up after GoW3, GT5, and FF13



jerseyboy609 on 28 May 2008
PooperScooper said:
Change mine to Summer '09 (july/end Q2). I think if these adjustments are correct with Ps3 only 5.85 behind then 6 more months and strong holiday sales would put the Ps3 about 3.5 mil behind with it catching up after GoW3, GT5, and FF13

True...