I love the thread! Good that all names and predictions are set in the 1st post. This thread will live for eons!  

Factors to consider:

* Current sales trends hard to interpret. In Q1 this year it seemed like the PS3 would really sustain a stable sales-lead world-wide by 50,000 consoles per week. But then MS dropped price in Europe which reduced the lead, and recent numbers show that post-GTA4 sales of particulary the PS3 have dipped quite a bit (only 20K lead now).

* What happened with Blu-ray? I see hardly anyone talk about "the Blue-ray effect" anymore. Instead there are fears that the HD format on discs will see slow adoption in homes, and people even compare it to Laser-disc.

* Game and console fans like us tend to over-estimate the effect of AAA titles effect on console sales. But time and time again we're shown that the immediate effects are marginal (including Halo 3 and GTA4). Long term effects are harder to track, but I can't see MGS4, GT5 and FF do miracles like Sony-fans still seem to believe.

* Price-drop potential. The 360 should have more potential than the PS3 to drop price, but MS' game division is not showing the big profit it should have if the X360 consoles today really are sold with profit.

So it's hard to predict right now, but for the moment I'm thinking these kind of long term numbers:

PS3 lead in EU/others: 25K per week
PS3 lead in NA: 5K per week
PS3 lead in Jap: 15K per week.
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= 45K per week that the PS3 is outselling the X360 in non-Holiday period. That translates to roughly 130k per week during the 9 Holiday weeks (Nov+Dec).

The total lead for X360 is right now 6.3 million consoles (19 weeks into 2008).

By end of 2008 that lead has shrunk to 6.3 million - (24 x 45K + 9 x 130K) = 6.3 - 2.25 mill = 4.05 million units.

By end of 2009 the lead has shrunk to 4.05 - (43 x 45K + 9 x 130K) = 4.05 - 3.1 mill = 0.95 million units.

The remaining 950K units takes 950K / 45K = 21 weeks to eat up, which is more than 1Q, why the PS3 will overtake the X360 WW in Q2 2010.

So my prediction is Q2 2010.

Ummmmm... Maybe around Q3 2009...

It all depends on how well MGS:4 does and im expecting good numbers from Japan due to DragonBallz and MGS:4. I expect Japan HW # for June to be 100,000 and above. If MGS:4 does very well it may be Q4 2008, but if not then probably after Q1-2 2009, because GOW3, and i think FFXIII will be out in Japan by that time.

probably q1 2010.

Q2 2009

3 months after FFXIII is released...

Intel is trying again to attack POWER6 with Itanium, but as now also Cell (that has one or more POWER general purpose cores) is present and trying to expand in the ws and server market, this attack could lead it too to improvements and subsequent more than expected price drops of existing models, giving Sony more room for price drops.
Good growth is also helping Sony that could achieve more economies of scale, while PS2 is still helping with very good profits.
Also, the relatively modest HW sales peak that XB 360 achieved despite Halo 3 incredible success seems to show that lots of 360 fans already have one and its market has little more room for growth, and this could be confirmed by the fact that despite GTA IV for 360 is now the WW best seller, at the same time of its huge sales, 360 HW ones are still 3rd weekly.
And, if true, trying to imitate Wii, instead of establishing its own style, could really kill XBox 360.

So I'd say Q2 2009

Nevah!

I've said it before but I'll say here on the record - The PS3 WILL eventually lose it's worldwide sales momentum and remain in 3rd place. As a Hi-Def game's machine it's completely overpowered by the 360, it's an overpriced and overpromised machine with only a small handful of really worthwhile exclusives and a poor multiplatform experience. I believe the 360 will continue to sell at it's current rates quite comfortably without challenge from the PS3. There's too much room for the PS3 to catch up while the 360 jogs ahead in good pace.

Never.

Whatever momentum they had has sputtered out and PS3 sales will remain vaguely above X360 sales for the rest of this decade.

This decade is Nintendo's. If they succeed at truly expanding the market, they will absorb the PS3/X360 market and sales for them will die before the PS3 catches up.

Put me down for Q1 2009, because Gears of war 2 my keep the ps3 from passing the Xbox 360 before christmas.