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Forums - Sales - Xbox Series sold 12m+ in 18 months according to former Xbox VP Global Expansion, Hardware.

Zippy6 said:
Panicradio said:

Really? Where do you take that from?

For many years now, it's been indicated by T2 themselves that they are using "Representing combined PS5 and Xbox Series X/S sales, the data was sourced from one of (or a combination of) research firms IDG Consulting and Newzoo, and the Entertainment Software Association."

All of them report shipment data, not sell-through. And even last February when T2 reported 94M+, we could easily figure out it were shipment numbers.

These firms estimate a multitude of things, MAU's, installbase, consumer spending habits, etc etc. Shipments are reported by Nintendo/Sony. The 138m is not shipments.

As you asked ChatGPT previously in this thread about Xbox sales, you can also ask it about what "138m consoles outstanding" means.

You'll get a response including this: "In finance and games publishing, “outstanding” ≈ “active or existing in the market”, not merely shipped." "When a publisher says “138m video game consoles outstanding”, they are almost always estimating the installed base."

How is that possible?

In February 2025, T2 had reported the same chart indicating 94M+as of November 2024:

https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/3ae54582-44bf-4163-9024-4da314c31541

We do know that Sony had reported 75M shipped as of December 2024:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463967/ps5-ships-750-million-units-as-of-december-2024/

What are you making out of these data now in terms of Series sales referring to T2's newest 138M+ figure?



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Panicradio said:
Zippy6 said:

These firms estimate a multitude of things, MAU's, installbase, consumer spending habits, etc etc. Shipments are reported by Nintendo/Sony. The 138m is not shipments.

As you asked ChatGPT previously in this thread about Xbox sales, you can also ask it about what "138m consoles outstanding" means.

You'll get a response including this: "In finance and games publishing, “outstanding” ≈ “active or existing in the market”, not merely shipped." "When a publisher says “138m video game consoles outstanding”, they are almost always estimating the installed base."

How is that possible?

In February 2025, T2 had reported the same chart indicating 94M+as of November 2024:

https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/3ae54582-44bf-4163-9024-4da314c31541

We do know that Sony had reported 75M shipped as of December 2024:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463967/ps5-ships-750-million-units-as-of-december-2024/

What are you making out of these data now in terms of Series sales referring to T2's newest 138M+ figure?

I'm not sure why you think the 94m+ figure being sell-through doesn't make sense?

This site has PS5+XBS sales at 93.7m combined sell-through as of November 1st 2024.

The 138m+ figure, if for the end of December (we don't know adding to the inaccuracy of this 138m+ estimate) would break down like:

PS5: 89.44m (VGC estimate)

SW2: 15.59m (VGC estimate)

XBS: 32.97m+ (138m+ minus the others)

Seems like the most plausible breakdown to me.

It also has to be remembered that this is just an analysis firm, this 138m is not gospel. We've all seen garbage from places like superdata and Alinea Analytics before. Not saying these firms aren't more reputable but they're also not hard data.



Panicradio said:
Zippy6 said:

These firms estimate a multitude of things, MAU's, installbase, consumer spending habits, etc etc. Shipments are reported by Nintendo/Sony. The 138m is not shipments.

As you asked ChatGPT previously in this thread about Xbox sales, you can also ask it about what "138m consoles outstanding" means.

You'll get a response including this: "In finance and games publishing, “outstanding” ≈ “active or existing in the market”, not merely shipped." "When a publisher says “138m video game consoles outstanding”, they are almost always estimating the installed base."

How is that possible?

In February 2025, T2 had reported the same chart indicating 94M+as of November 2024:

https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/3ae54582-44bf-4163-9024-4da314c31541

We do know that Sony had reported 75M shipped as of December 2024:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463967/ps5-ships-750-million-units-as-of-december-2024/

What are you making out of these data now in terms of Series sales referring to T2's newest 138M+ figure?

The level of deflecting trying to justify overinflated Series estimates is insane.

If VGChartz is having a hard time I can only guess Welfare is going into overdrive making shit up.



VGChartz estimates look pretty solid based on the Take-Two estimate.



Zippy6 said:
Panicradio said:

How is that possible?

In February 2025, T2 had reported the same chart indicating 94M+as of November 2024:

https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/3ae54582-44bf-4163-9024-4da314c31541

We do know that Sony had reported 75M shipped as of December 2024:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463967/ps5-ships-750-million-units-as-of-december-2024/

What are you making out of these data now in terms of Series sales referring to T2's newest 138M+ figure?

I'm not sure why you think the 94m+ figure being sell-through doesn't make sense?

This site has PS5+XBS sales at 93.7m combined sell-through as of November 1st 2024.

The 138m+ figure, if for the end of December (we don't know adding to the inaccuracy of this 138m+ estimate) would break down like:

PS5: 89.44m (VGC estimate)

SW2: 15.59m (VGC estimate)

XBS: 32.97m+ (138m+ minus the others)

Seems like the most plausible breakdown to me.

It also has to be remembered that this is just an analysis firm, this 138m is not gospel. We've all seen garbage from places like superdata and Alinea Analytics before. Not saying these firms aren't more reputable but they're also not hard data.

It should be noted that the PS5 and Switch 2 number used here are actually up to January 3rd. That would re-allocate another 200-300k towards the Xbox column I believe.



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Zippy6 said:
Panicradio said:

How is that possible?

In February 2025, T2 had reported the same chart indicating 94M+as of November 2024:

https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/3ae54582-44bf-4163-9024-4da314c31541

We do know that Sony had reported 75M shipped as of December 2024:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463967/ps5-ships-750-million-units-as-of-december-2024/

What are you making out of these data now in terms of Series sales referring to T2's newest 138M+ figure?

I'm not sure why you think the 94m+ figure being sell-through doesn't make sense?

This site has PS5+XBS sales at 93.7m combined sell-through as of November 1st 2024.

The 138m+ figure, if for the end of December (we don't know adding to the inaccuracy of this 138m+ estimate) would break down like:

PS5: 89.44m (VGC estimate)

SW2: 15.59m (VGC estimate)

XBS: 32.97m+ (138m+ minus the others)

Seems like the most plausible breakdown to me.

It also has to be remembered that this is just an analysis firm, this 138m is not gospel. We've all seen garbage from places like superdata and Alinea Analytics before. Not saying these firms aren't more reputable but they're also not hard data.

Let me put it another way:

• As of November 2024, T2 reported 94M units.

• As of December 2025, T2 reported 138M units.

That's a gap of 44M units.

We know that:

• PS5 and Series estimated sell-through of December 2024 is 4.39M units. Let's toggle that at 7M (possibly even 8M) units shipped in December 2024.

That would put combined shipments as of December 2024 at 101M (94+7), leaving a gap of 37M as of December 2024 to the now 138M reported by T2 as of December 2025.

Now:

We do know that:

• Nintendo shipped 17.37M units of Switch 2 in 2025

• Sony shipped 17.37M (funny) units of PS5 in 2025.

37 - 17.37 - 17.37 = 3.26M shipped left.

Considering we know that:

• Estimated sell-through of Series in 2025 is at 2.55M

... this would indicate that T2's figure 138M is indeed shipped, since it's not too far stretched that that 3.26M shipped in 2025 can only be Series.

Which would match.



Panicradio said:

... this would indicate that T2's figure 138M is indeed shipped, since it's not too far stretched that that 3.26M shipped in 2025 can only be Series.

Which would match.

You are trying really hard.... 

It is this simple:

Sony sell-in by end of December : 92M

Nintendo sell-in by end of December 17M

92+17 = 109. Subtract that from the 138M number and you get 29M for XBox.

Since we don't really know if this 138M number is end of December. ""By December" could mean anything. Most likely XBoxX/S is around 30-32M units sold.



drkohler said:
Panicradio said:

... this would indicate that T2's figure 138M is indeed shipped, since it's not too far stretched that that 3.26M shipped in 2025 can only be Series.

Which would match.

You are trying really hard.... 

It is this simple:

Sony sell-in by end of December : 92M

Nintendo sell-in by end of December 17M

92+17 = 109. Subtract that from the 138M number and you get 29M for XBox.

Since we don't really know if this 138M number is end of December. ""By December" could mean anything. Most likely XBoxX/S is around 30-32M units sold.

If I remember correctly, @trunkswd recently said that VGChartz is estimating Microsoft's shipment gap is expected to sit at ~1M units.

If T2's figures indicates 3.26M shipped left for the Series in 2025, because we do have official Nintendo and Playstation shipments each at 17.37M, and if Xbox' estimated sell-through in 2025 sits at 2.55M units, then I don't know why you think a deviation of 8% regarding trunkswd 1M aligned shipment gap is "trying hard".

8%. This as close as even VGChartz' are happy to meet with their estimates.

And of course:

When T2 reports "as of", that does include the full month they're reporting as of. Otherwise it wouldn't make sense, since all manufacturers, except Microsoft, do report "as of" data in the exact same pattern.



drkohler said:
Panicradio said:

... this would indicate that T2's figure 138M is indeed shipped, since it's not too far stretched that that 3.26M shipped in 2025 can only be Series.

Which would match.

You are trying really hard.... 

It is this simple:

Sony sell-in by end of December : 92M

Nintendo sell-in by end of December 17M

92+17 = 109. Subtract that from the 138M number and you get 29M for XBox.

Since we don't really know if this 138M number is end of December. ""By December" could mean anything. Most likely XBoxX/S is around 30-32M units sold.

Series didn't sell 1 million in December. It didn't sell 1 million in the whole quarter. I don't know why people are so fixated with dates, sell in or sell through when Series doesn't sell at all. That couple million up or down could be for the whole year.



I just want to further add to my claim:

138M reported by T2 as of December 2025 are total shipments of Switch 2, PS5 and X|S.

PS5 has shipped 92.2M and SW2 17.37M units life-to-date. Which leaves 28.43M units shipped for X|S as of December 2025.

As soon as you'd now start raising X|S shipments, you'd need to alter official shipment numbers from Sony and Nintendo down. Which just can't be true, mathematically.

Last edited by Panicradio - on 05 February 2026