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Forums - General - Will it get better ?

The bubble will pop, but probably not for a year or two.

From my understanding, a lot of the money riding in the grand AI circle of cash originates from OpenAI becoming 100s of billions of dollars profitable in ~1-2 years, which can only really happen if they create a general artificial intelligence, which, IMO just isn't going to happen. A bunch of companies have misestimated how long the GPUs will last, their final retail price, among a lot of other wacky things. Exactly when it will be is really anyone's guess, but I'd put money down on it being OpenAI.

Logic Learning Machines will still be around, it's just that they will get more specific. During my undergrad, I worked on a proposal for the Deep Underground Neutrino Expirement, and we were going to apply the fundamentals of Learning Models to act as a data filter out other particle detections rather than go through all the data ourselves (mind you the expirement itself is supposed to wind up with ~10^6 - 10^7 data lines, so it simply wouldn't be feesible to have us try to look at everything). Granted this is not a Large Language Model

My current job also is a mix of both, I work for a medical brain implant company to allow people to speak again. Same sort of thing, building it up on a general understanding of how someone thinks with a variety of test passages.

They also have the capacity to be useful in terms of making things more efficient. It's mostly a matter of test data. I think companies that have a specific use case for their AI and using specific information is actually a pretty good idea, and will be companies that last in the long run.

EDIT: The fall of truy Large Language Models trained on the entire interent will most likely bring down the cost of a lot of the things you mentioned, but the persistence of Logic Learning Machines and Medium Sized Language Models means there will still be an increase to pre-LLM prices. However, if other semiconductor companies can start to imitate TMSC's processes, or the foundries they setup in the states ever gets to the point where it can duplicate the process of 4? nm (can't remember the exact number) it would also bring down prices a decent bit.

Last edited by badskywalker - 7 hours ago

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Within a few years, a few larger companies will likely remain standing, but a lot of them are vying for the same (or similar enough the cause problems) markets and services right now. It's a race. But even if/when swaths of them disappear into history, deflating hardware prices will take time. If the race carries on another 2-3 years, it's likely that manufacture of hardware will take certain turns to better fit corporate customers, which makes them less suited for wider commercial and personal use, which would led to a process of re-saddling once more (with added costs and time-frames) if and when the tide turns.

If there isn't a larger crash with lots of casualties, we could be looking at a bleak future where companies drive prices and inventory out of the range and reach of private users and usage altogether and we're suddenly headed for a society in which hardware is fully centralized (which would be a disaster, for a multitude of reasons).

My rig is still kicking ass, so I don't need any upgrades, but I'm concerned about the media's handling of the issues. It's framed as a PC-nerd, or gamer issue, first and foremost, but if the above mentioned scenario plays out, it's a huge, global issue with deep and wide implications and impact.