No, it was not winnable. Xbox issues go back to the start of the Xbox One generation (if not further), which was the worst generation to lose as people started to build up their digital libraries and switching consoles would mean losing their games. Although, if you look at the most played games they are nearly identical between the PS5 and Xbox Series with live service games like Roblox, Fortnite, Call of Duty, and Minecraft. Microsoft owns Call of Duty and Minecraft, however, they would lose too much money if they made those Xbox exclusive.
Going back in time what Microsoft should have done is launch the Xbox One in 2012 without Kinect for $399 and Halo 4 as a cross-gen launch title. That would have given them a year head start on the PS4 like they did with the Xbox 360. Would that have been enough for the 8th generation to have been as close as the 7th generation? Probably not. But it would have made it closer. Now acquiring Bethesda a decade earlier could have meant Fallout 3 and 4, Skyrim, Doom reboots, Wolfenstein reboots, etc as Xbox console exclusives. Morrowind was an Xbox console exclusive and Oblivion launched first on Xbox 360 (Yes, because PS3 wasn't out yet).
Actually Xbox mistakes go back to the original Xbox. They passed on GTA3 back in the day as they didn't think Rockstar could make the jump to 3D and pull it off. Imagine if GTA3 / Vice City / San Andreas were timed exclusive on the OG Xbox.
VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.
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Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.