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Forums - Gaming - Nintendo only has to get lucky once.......

AddRat said:

I feel like there's been an overcorrection on the unreasonable level of gloom over the S2 launch.

It's not over-correction. It's confirmation bias, coupled with the tribal nature of the internet. Nintendo fans thinks it's going to sell five billion units. Nintendo haters think it's going to sink the company. Meanwhile, the five people in the middle are drowned out, hated and buried by both sides.

It's all stupid, because it has no bearing on anything. The Switch 2 is going to do what it's going to do. Arguing about it is unwise. And making extreme predictions, even more so.



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JackHandy said:
AddRat said:

I feel like there's been an overcorrection on the unreasonable level of gloom over the S2 launch.

It's not over-correction. It's confirmation bias, coupled with the tribal nature of the internet. Nintendo fans thinks it's going to sell five billion units. Nintendo haters think it's going to sink the company. Meanwhile, the five people in the middle are drowned out, hated and buried by both sides.

It's all stupid, because it has no bearing on anything. The Switch 2 is going to do what it's going to do. Arguing about it is unwise. And making extreme predictions, even more so.

What gloom? A handheld + home console with AAA support is at minimum equal to any home only system. If it's Nintendo, odds are it's worth a PSX + handheld unless its an abomination of handheldxhome like WiiU.

If you get your opinions from Youtube you need to reevaluate your life.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
JackHandy said:

It's not over-correction. It's confirmation bias, coupled with the tribal nature of the internet. Nintendo fans thinks it's going to sell five billion units. Nintendo haters think it's going to sink the company. Meanwhile, the five people in the middle are drowned out, hated and buried by both sides.

It's all stupid, because it has no bearing on anything. The Switch 2 is going to do what it's going to do. Arguing about it is unwise. And making extreme predictions, even more so.

What gloom? A handheld + home console with AAA support is at minimum equal to any home only system. If it's Nintendo, odds are it's worth a PSX + handheld unless its an abomination of handheldxhome like WiiU.

If you get your opinions from Youtube you need to reevaluate your life.

I do not understand what any of that meant, or how it applies to what I said. I was speaking to the nature of letting one's emotions cloud their judgment, and how it's not the best way to go about interacting with others.



JackHandy said:
Pyro as Bill said:

What gloom? A handheld + home console with AAA support is at minimum equal to any home only system. If it's Nintendo, odds are it's worth a PSX + handheld unless its an abomination of handheldxhome like WiiU.

If you get your opinions from Youtube you need to reevaluate your life.

I do not understand what any of that meant, or how it applies to what I said. I was speaking to the nature of letting one's emotions cloud their judgment, and how it's not the best way to go about interacting with others.

Emotions clouding judgement = getting your opinions from youtube.

There's no gloom. No Nintendo fan thinks it's gonna sell 5 billion and even the haters concede it'll do well.

Arguing about Switch sales isn't unwise, it separates the prophets from the fools.

There's zero reason to believe NS2 will sell less than NS1 based on early data and every reason to believe there's a huge switchup coming.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
JackHandy said:

I do not understand what any of that meant, or how it applies to what I said. I was speaking to the nature of letting one's emotions cloud their judgment, and how it's not the best way to go about interacting with others.

Emotions clouding judgement = getting your opinions from youtube.

There's no gloom. No Nintendo fan thinks it's gonna sell 5 billion and even the haters concede it'll do well.

Arguing about Switch sales isn't unwise, it separates the prophets from the fools.

There's zero reason to believe NS2 will sell less than NS1 based on early data and every reason to believe there's a huge switchup coming.

It depends when Switch 2 gets a successor.

But keep in mind that the Switch 2 is targeting the same market audience as the Switch 1... With higher priced hardware, games, accessories and services on top.

And whilst we have seen some amazing numbers out of the gate, I have my reservations that Switch 2 sales will beat Switch 1 sales at the end of the generation, early sales are not always indicative of a consoles sales for an entire generation.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

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Pyro as Bill said:
JackHandy said:

I do not understand what any of that meant, or how it applies to what I said. I was speaking to the nature of letting one's emotions cloud their judgment, and how it's not the best way to go about interacting with others.

Arguing about Switch sales isn't unwise, it separates the prophets from the fools.

Considering the limited amount of un-guaranteed time you have on this earth, I could easily argue it's foolish to argue over the amount of units a piece of plastic is going to sell.

Easily.



If China would start adopting Switch or any other Games console on a similar level as e.g. Europe, the sky is the limit.

Simply due to the sheer size of the population there is a giant middle class that can afford it. In traditional markets like North America, Europe and Japan it's probably capped already. The growth will need to happen outside of these.

Think what happened with cars. Everybody thought there was a ceiling for worldwide sales, then China started to grow so substantially it's now easily the biggest car market and raised the ceiling for worldwide sales dramatically going from approx 60 million to 80 million within 20 years.



Tober said:

If China would start adopting Switch or any other Games console on a similar level as e.g. Europe, the sky is the limit.

Simply due to the sheer size of the population there is a giant middle class that can afford it. In traditional markets like North America, Europe and Japan it's probably capped already. The growth will need to happen outside of these.

Think what happened with cars. Everybody thought there was a ceiling for worldwide sales, then China started to grow so substantially it's now easily the biggest car market and raised the ceiling for worldwide sales dramatically going from approx 60 million to 80 million within 20 years.

India is huge as well... 4th largest economy, it passed Japan, it will pass Germany very soon and will sit under China and the USA.
It actually exceeds China in terms of population and has been exceeding China for some years now in terms of overall GDP growth.

India has the advantage of a younger population.. India's median: 28 vs China's 39 median age.
And younger populations tend to be more interested in things like gaming... The only hindrance is that the amount of people that are classed as "affluent" is about 4% of the population, but that will change over the next decade.

The USA is in decline on the world stage, so India is the logical counter balance to China in my eyes.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--