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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2024 Thread + Predictions

Geralt99 said:

Why doesn't the article include year on year Hardware percentages?

Mat piscatella has reported that PS5 is up by 15% year on year, Switch down 3% and xbox down 29%.

I've updated the article with that data. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Bluesky and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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I'm working on our US estimates right now, but it is looking like the PS5 is at ~1.21M and NS ~550K-600K to put it above PS2 but also so it still rounds down to 46.6M lifetime. XS has to remain below NS in terms of units and dollar sales and its average selling price should be above the NS. That is the trickiest console to figure out, but we are talking below 500K and likely around 450K.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Bluesky and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

I'm working on our US estimates right now, but it is looking like the PS5 is at ~1.21M and NS ~550K-600K to put it above PS2 but also so it still rounds down to 46.6M lifetime. XS has to remain below NS in terms of units and dollar sales and its average selling price should be above the NS. That is the trickiest console to figure out, but we are talking below 500K and likely around 450K.

Do you already have the data for "The Americas" or they are revealed alongside with the US'?



CourageTCD said:
trunkswd said:

I'm working on our US estimates right now, but it is looking like the PS5 is at ~1.21M and NS ~550K-600K to put it above PS2 but also so it still rounds down to 46.6M lifetime. XS has to remain below NS in terms of units and dollar sales and its average selling price should be above the NS. That is the trickiest console to figure out, but we are talking below 500K and likely around 450K.

Do you already have the data for "The Americas" or they are revealed alongside with the US'?

I figure out the US data first then work on the rest of the Americas. I then post it all at once.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Bluesky and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

I'm working on our US estimates right now, but it is looking like the PS5 is at ~1.21M and NS ~550K-600K to put it above PS2 but also so it still rounds down to 46.6M lifetime. XS has to remain below NS in terms of units and dollar sales and its average selling price should be above the NS. That is the trickiest console to figure out, but we are talking below 500K and likely around 450K.

Resetera are saying it is #1 PS5, #2 NSW, #3 XSX/s.

I'm very surprised PS5 is up, instead of down.
And that Switch drop is only 3%.... that's insane.

Also on resetera, there's also people claiming, the XSX/s is likely below 500k this november....

Also from that thread:
"Last November Xbox had their worst November for hardware in the USA since 2006. This is worse."  (29% worse).

My random guess of 420k for Xbox, might not be that far off... wow.

Last edited by JRPGfan - 6 days ago

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JRPGfan said:
trunkswd said:

I'm working on our US estimates right now, but it is looking like the PS5 is at ~1.21M and NS ~550K-600K to put it above PS2 but also so it still rounds down to 46.6M lifetime. XS has to remain below NS in terms of units and dollar sales and its average selling price should be above the NS. That is the trickiest console to figure out, but we are talking below 500K and likely around 450K.

Resetera are saying it is #1 PS5, #2 NSW, #3 XSX/s.

I'm very surprised PS5 is up, instead of down.
And that Switch drop is only 3%.... that's insane.

Also on resetera, there's also people claiming, the XSX/s is likely below 500k this november....

Also from that thread:
"Last November Xbox had their worst November for hardware in the USA since 2006. This is worse."  (29% worse).

My random guess of 420k for Xbox, might not be that far off... wow.

Xbox sales are bad. It had the worst discounts this year. We are gonna have PS5 at 1.21M, NS at 0.59M and XS 0.45M or a little lower. Xbox has the least amount of data available of the 3. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Bluesky and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

I just had a odd thought.... what if..... hear me out here.... PS5 outsold the Series X/s by a 3:1 ratio this month? in the US.
(its gotta be close to that right?)



JRPGfan said:

I just had a odd thought.... what if..... hear me out here.... PS5 outsold the Series X/s by a 3:1 ratio this month? in the US.
(its gotta be close to that right?)

That is the biggest failure of all, even if Xbox can't compete in Europe and Japan, they should be competitive in the US, the fact that they aren't shows that something is going very badly for them on a fundamental level. Xbox has been competitive with PS in the US since the Xbox 360, something has changed.



JRPGfan said:

I just had a odd thought.... what if..... hear me out here.... PS5 outsold the Series X/s by a 3:1 ratio this month? in the US.
(its gotta be close to that right?)

According to estimates, PS5 outsold the Series at a 2.9:1 ratio in the Americas markets.

And if I am not mistaken by the year-on-year numbers, PS5 could have achieved a 2.75:1 ratio in the US compared to Xbox.

So if one's not nitpicky, your guess was absolutely correct.



I gotta say I have been feeling for awhile that the gaming industry will look very different in the distant future but things are looking worse than I initially imagined. I do believe we are witnessing the end of Xbox as a platform like this but i thought it would take atleast another three generations for Xbox to completely collapse or make its final transition (PC gaming only). Microsoft should shift to being more like Steam as a gaming platform. Microsoft's strengthens are in PC gaming and PC gaming is really beginning to take away all of the advantages console gaming once had. This would allow MS to remain competive while still growing in the gaming industy. Drop Xbox and instead bring in pre-built gaming PCs and PC handhelds, pitch them like gaming consoles selling brand controllers and all. Windows store and game pass will still be open to the entire market but of course offer incentives for your own hardware like cheaper gamepass and Windows. Microsoft should remain as a third party for the entire industry. The gaming market seems to be headed towards mobile (50% of all the gaming market), PC (second largest gaming market now and taking consumers from the tradition console market), and the console market (PS and Nintendo). Funny enough PS might become the platform with the least users in the distant future, that's actually hilarious when you look back on the history of the gaming industry.