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Forums - Sales Discussion - Official Big 3 Quarterly/Annual Results for shipments to date & projections

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5712

The PSP and PS2 targets look very weird to me.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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TheSource said:

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5712

The PSP and PS2 targets look very weird to me.

They sure do...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

PS3 software sales were higher then 360 for the first time ever. And now Sony will 100% ship over 13 million which many people belived was impossible.



Well...I think they'll get to 13m but its going to be close. Last quarter the PS3 had a new model and was within $50 of the price of the Wii. Those effects are gone now, which is why sales have settled around 200k per week. Sony is probably on pace for a 6-7m PS3 Christmas quarter (360 had a 6m quarter last year at the same time by aligned launch) but after that they still have to ship a couple million more in the next quarter.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said:

Well...I think they'll get to 13m but its going to be close. Last quarter the PS3 had a new model and was within $50 of the price of the Wii. Those effects are gone now, which is why sales have settled around 200k per week. Sony is probably on pace for a 6-7m PS3 Christmas quarter (360 had a 6m quarter last year at the same time by aligned launch) but after that they still have to ship a couple million more in the next quarter.

Yep but Q1 2010 looks like the strongest first quarter for software for the PS3 in ages.

Between the exclusives and the significant number of multiplat title that were delayed, this looks feasible...

Besides their average for the last 3 years in their last quarter is 1.8 million units and it shoudn't be that hard to beat it by a few hundreds k



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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shanbcn said:

PS3 software sales were higher then 360 for the first time ever. And now Sony will 100% ship over 13 million which many people belived was impossible.

People need to stop calculating Xbox 360 software shipments from the attach rate given in their financial report, this attach rate has always been "per U.S. NPD" ie sold to consumer attach rate in US only, it's not a Global shipment attach rate. They've stopped citing NPD in their most recent reports, but if you go back through their old reports this qualifier was always included, and the attach rate between when they used to cite NPD and stopped citing NPD increased at a similar rate to which the NPD attach rate was increasing before, despite the fact that Asia and Europe have lower attach rates than US due to piracy. They also continue to state that their attach rate "leads the industry", so obviously they must be using a source which includes figures for their competitors. It's similar to how they they stated Halo ODST was the number one seller in US last month without citing NPD as their source.

Unfortunately Microsoft do not give out software shipment numbers in their financial reports, and it's impossible to calculate them from the attach rate that they include. It's quite possible that Xbox 360 software shipments were actually higher than PS3 last quarter, it's also quite possible that PS3 software shipments were higher, but we really don't know.



bluthunder said:
shanbcn said:

PS3 software sales were higher then 360 for the first time ever. And now Sony will 100% ship over 13 million which many people belived was impossible.

People need to stop calculating Xbox 360 software shipments from the attach rate given in their financial report, this attach rate has always been "per U.S. NPD" ie sold to consumer attach rate in US only, it's not a Global shipment attach rate. They've stopped citing NPD in their most recent reports, but if you go back through their old reports this qualifier was always included, and the attach rate between when they used to cite NPD and stopped citing NPD increased at a similar rate to which the NPD attach rate was increasing before, despite the fact that Asia and Europe have lower attach rates than US due to piracy. They also continue to state that their attach rate "leads the industry", so obviously they must be using a source which includes figures for their competitors. It's similar to how they they stated Halo ODST was the number one seller in US last month without citing NPD as their source.

Unfortunately Microsoft do not give out software shipment numbers in their financial reports, and it's impossible to calculate them from the attach rate that they include. It's quite possible that Xbox 360 software shipments were actually higher than PS3 last quarter, it's also quite possible that PS3 software shipments were higher, but we really don't know.

nice find... i never knew that they cite NPD attach rate.

btw i find it hard to believe that they their worldwide attach rate is higher than the NPD attach rate for the reason you mentioned and also i dont think any company like to cite figures in the financial report in which they turn out to be lower than in reality... cuz that is not good for stock n also for shareholders and not in the interest of the company either..



That is certainly possible but I don't see why they would stop citing NPD if they were just providing USA data. A source told me the Xbox attach rate ended up around 9.5 games/system and the X360 has a more diverse lineup of titles so I wouldn't be surprised if the figures were about 8.7 worldwide. Sony's figures include PSN downloads anyway (not that its a huge figure) so its never going to be a completely clean comparison anyway.

By the way, Nintendo's half year presentation is amazing - you should all check out the highlights it has relevant data for all six systems in all three regional markets. I just wrote it up http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5719

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Wii SW Mar Q Jun Q Sept Q Dec Q
2006 Figures:
Shipped
Millions
17.51
2007 11.29 16.02 20.99 47.38
2008 35.25 40.41 41 82.3
2009 40.8 31.07 45.13

87.0



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

This and the previous post are my estimates for Wii & DS software (retail sw) shipped by quarter from launch. Red figures are estimates for the current quarter (Oct-Dec 2009). We'll have to wait for data from this week, but Nintendo may beat its current Wii/DS shipment forecasts by 5-10% or so.

DS SW Mar Q Jun Q Sept Q Dec Q
2004 Figures:
Millions
Shipped
5.01
2005 5.48 5.33 7.98 22.60
2006 14.04 18.35 24.81 50.63
2007 29.75 34.26 41.24 71.39
2008 38.74 36.58 48.44 78.75
2009 33.54 29.08 42.07 69

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu