MSFT's quaterly result is out this Thursday night, isn't it?

Yes, should be around 17:30 EST.

Also confirmation that Sony's will be held on May 14 at 18:00 JST, related materials available at 15:00 JST.

Another interesting one to look out for is GAME Group's "Preliminary results announcement for the 53 weeks to 31 January 2009" on Wednesday 22nd. We may get some recent Chart-Track hardware sales from that.

A positive note from Sony's front is that there hasn't been a market warnings or further forecast revision warnings in the last couple of weeks. Strong possibility that the result may come in better than forecast and better than expected for FY08

The Dollar has gotten stronger against the Yen $1 = 100 Yen again and I think Sony and Nintendo have to calculate their year end totals based on yen to other currency rates at the end of the month.

So if Q1 they make $100 at 80 Yen, its 8000 Yen

But if in Q2 they make another $100 at 100 Yen I think it goes to 20,000 Yen for the six months because the currency rate changed.

I base it on this:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/090130/02.html

The Yen seems to have gone something like this by quarter (dunno about Euros or Pounds):

105 to a dollar

100 to a dollar

90 to a dollar

100 to a dollar

But the current forecasts for Nintendo and Sony seem to be based on a 90 Yen = $1 forecast, and it looks like the reality now is 100 Yen = $1

Iwata explains it here:

"Why don’t I explain by using the example of sales made in euro, which has shown an especially big change in its appreciation towards yen. In the 1st quarter of the current fiscal year, we made 1.1 billion Euro in sales, and at that time, the average exchange ratio was 163.43 yen per euro. Nintendo Co., Ltd. accounted for this sales in Euro and converting it to sales in yen by multiplying these numbers. At the end of the 2nd quarter, the 6-month sales were 2.2 billion euros. We came up with the mid-term euro sales result in yen by multiplying this euro sales by 162.68 yen, which was the average exchange ratio for the 6 months.

By subtracting the already-reported 1st quarter sales from this 6-month sales, we came up with the 2nd quarter 3-month sales, as the balance between the cumulative sales until June and the one until September. At this point, the Euro’s fluctuation was too small to give significant impact upon our accounting. At the end of the 3rd quarter, the 9-month euro sales was 4.2 billion euro, and the Euro’s appreciation against yen had significantly changed. The average exchange rate for the 9 months was 150.70 yen per euro. The euro sales were accounted in Japanese yen by multiplying these numbers in order for us to make the financial announcement yesterday. When we compare this average exchange ratio of 9 months with that of the 6 months, a difference of about 12 yen is found per euro. Following the applied accounting method mentioned before, the change in exchange rates had the effect of nominally decreasing the 3rd quarter three-month sales by 26.4 billion yen, based upon the calculation of 12 yen multiplied by 2.2 billion euro. And, in the current 4th quarter, as the yen is anticipated to appreciate even stronger against the euro, we estimate more than 32 billion yen negative effect on the 4.2 billion euro sales already reported as the 9-month result.

And this is just the case for the Euro. Of course, we also had to take into considerations the change in anticipated exchange rates of the other currencies such as U.S. dollars. As I have shown, the fluctuations in exchange rates affect even the sales in the past quarters where the financial reporting of which had already been made. When the yen appreciates as quickly as it does today, it also affects the 4th quarter three month result alone to look as if the sales are down sharply."

^I got a little confused in that, but are you saying that the forcasts were based on a poorer exchange rate than it turned out to be, which means the fiscal reports should show better profits [or loss] than they would have?

How do the companies actually get their money anyway? I mean obviously the revenue stream must be pretty constant, but in terms of how much it is worth, as you noted there per quarter it changes... but does that mean that the fiscal report isn't entirely accurate (ie if the rate is good at the end of the year, but poor for the first 3 quarters then surely they made less money than the report indicates)

OR is the money not really "counted" until the end of the FY... in which case the report is accurate, and it is essentially as if they held the overseas revenue until the end of the year and then sent it hypothetically "in bulk" at a single exchange rate. This would then mean a chunk of a companies profit could be wiped if the rate is poor at the end of the FY though.

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Edit.... ah... you second post clarfiies... I saw the words "average exchange rate" in there, which makes much more sense.

$/¥ FY09

€/¥ FY09

£/¥ FY09

Well, it does look like the exchange rates may help Sony and Nintendo out a bit since the dollar isn't worth 90 Yen like it was in the winter so if they miss their projections (in gaming) its going to be in software

The red figure is my estimate for what NES and Master System would have done in the March 1990 FY if Nintendo had a 12 month fiscal year instead of a seven month FY.

All 32 bit figures include production shipments, not unit sales to retailers from Sony. 128 Bit system shipments are the same - except that after FY9 Sony switched to unit sales to retail as well.

Pink figures are big three projections for the year ending March 2009.

Definitions:

8 Bit: FY1 = August 1983 FY, systems = NES & MS

16 Bit = SNES & Genesis

32 Bit = Saturn, N64, PS1

128 Bit = DC, PS2, Xbox, GC

Wii Gen = Wii, 360, PS3

GB = GB (includes GBC)

GBA = GBA

DS Gen = All DS & PSP iterations to date

Looking at the data, FY5 or FY 6 should be the peak of the current 'Wii gen' while the DS Gen may have peaked in FY March 2009.

The projected DS & PSP shipments, and the projected Wii gen shipments are the highest ever for a single year in the history of the industry. Gaming follows its cycles, not macroeconomic cycles :)