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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

zorg1000 said:
Chrkeller said:

Getting people to understand the policies, eg messaging, still remains a problem IMO.  

Meaning Harris needs to focus on women's rights, low violent crime, high stock market, Jan 6th coup and trump's conviction.

Keep it simple and avoid controversial policies.  

Edit

And I will never understand why people thought running Biden was a good idea in the first place.  We all knew he had major issues for the last 12 months.

From my perspective liberals hate Trump with a boiling passion, so they need very little motivation to go out against Trump.  The middle aisle, independents and levelheaded republicans are the key target demographic.  Harris gets a reasonable amount of those folks, and the election is over, hence focus on the big talking points.  

Border-This is where Mark Kelly would be a good pick for VP, he’s from a border state and has been critical of some of Biden’s border policies, he can go out there and advocate for a middle ground between Biden’s open borders & Trump’s mass deportation plan. Really push the Senate border bill that has a mix of increased border security & streamlining the asylum process.

Gun Safety-another area where Kelly can potentially shine. He’s a gun owner and his wife survived an assassination attempt. Go out there and talk about how he’s a proud gun owner and doesn’t want to take guns away from his fellow Americans but we need stricter laws to prevent what happened to his wife & Trump.

National Security/Foreign Policy-Again emphasize that she’s a former prosecutor & Kelly is a former Navy Captain and how they are the type of people you want in office to make America safe and protect our allies abroad.

These are reasons why I'm quickly thinking Kelly should be VP, for me it's between him and Shapiro. Like you said, Kelly has more moderate border policies, a powerful story to encourage further gun safety laws but not wanting to take them away completely. He appeals to moderates/independents and he's both a navy captain and astronaut, the image alone is powerful.

Republicans wish they could have a VP as decorated as Kelly, they'll struggle to attack him with anything and Americans love both military veterans and astronauts but my understanding is that Pennsylvania is more important which is awkward...Shapiro may get them Pennsylvania but I think Kelly would appeal more to the entire country.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 24 July 2024

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Ryuu96 said:
zorg1000 said:

Border-This is where Mark Kelly would be a good pick for VP, he’s from a border state and has been critical of some of Biden’s border policies, he can go out there and advocate for a middle ground between Biden’s open borders & Trump’s mass deportation plan. Really push the Senate border bill that has a mix of increased border security & streamlining the asylum process.

Gun Safety-another area where Kelly can potentially shine. He’s a gun owner and his wife survived an assassination attempt. Go out there and talk about how he’s a proud gun owner and doesn’t want to take guns away from his fellow Americans but we need stricter laws to prevent what happened to his wife & Trump.

National Security/Foreign Policy-Again emphasize that she’s a former prosecutor & Kelly is a former Navy Captain and how they are the type of people you want in office to make America safe and protect our allies abroad.

These are reasons why I'm quickly thinking Kelly should be VP, for me it's between him and Shapiro. Like you said, Kelly has more moderate border policies, a powerful story to encourage further gun safety laws but not wanting to take them away completely. He appeals to moderates/independents and he's both a navy captain and astronaut, the image alone is powerful.

Republicans wish they could have a VP as decorated as Kelly, they'll struggle to attack him with anything and Americans love both military veterans and astronauts but my understanding is that Pennsylvania is more important which is awkward...Shapiro may get them Pennsylvania but I think Kelly would appeal more to the entire country.

I originally thought Shapiro too because of the Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin) but now I’m thinking you don’t actually have to be from there to appeal to those voters. Kamala/Kelly have enough strong qualities to appeal to them.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Ryuu96 said:

These are reasons why I'm quickly thinking Kelly should be VP, for me it's between him and Shapiro. Like you said, Kelly has more moderate border policies, a powerful story to encourage further gun safety laws but not wanting to take them away completely. He appeals to moderates/independents and he's both a navy captain and astronaut, the image alone is powerful.

Republicans wish they could have a VP as decorated as Kelly, they'll struggle to attack him with anything and Americans love both military veterans and astronauts but my understanding is that Pennsylvania is more important which is awkward...Shapiro may get them Pennsylvania but I think Kelly would appeal more to the entire country.

I originally thought Shapiro too because of the Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin) but now I’m thinking you don’t actually have to be from there to appeal to those voters. Kamala/Kelly have enough strong qualities to appeal to them.

Also, just out of pure pleasure, I want to see JD Vance TRY to debate Mark Kelly, Lmao.

I can't even think what angle they would try to attack him on (that would actually work).



Ryuu96 said:
zorg1000 said:

I originally thought Shapiro too because of the Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin) but now I’m thinking you don’t actually have to be from there to appeal to those voters. Kamala/Kelly have enough strong qualities to appeal to them.

Also, just out of pure pleasure, I want to see JD Vance TRY to debate Mark Kelly, Lmao.

I can't even think what angle they would try to attack him on (that would actually work).

I was just texting some friends about that, how the hell do you even try to attack this guy? And like we said, he helps counter some of the things that Republicans will inevitably try to attack Kamala on.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Chrkeller said:

Getting people to understand the policies, eg messaging, still remains a problem IMO.  

Meaning Harris needs to focus on women's rights, low violent crime, high stock market, Jan 6th coup and trump's conviction.

Keep it simple and avoid controversial policies.  

Edit

And I will never understand why people thought running Biden was a good idea in the first place.  We all knew he had major issues for the last 12 months.

From my perspective liberals hate Trump with a boiling passion, so they need very little motivation to go out against Trump.  The middle aisle, independents and levelheaded republicans are the key target demographic.  Harris gets a reasonable amount of those folks, and the election is over, hence focus on the big talking points.  

For sure, it’s easier said than done but I think a general blueprint like this would be very effective at getting swing voters/centrists/independents: 

Economy-this one is tougher, you don’t want to sound out of touch by bragging about the stock market when people are still struggling from high prices & borrowing costs. It has to be a message about how things like the stock market, low unemployment & inflation cooling shows the worst is behind us but there is still a lot of work to be done.

And get back to focusing on eliminating student loan debt. That was a gamechanger for me and millions of others, and I kept saying that if Biden can eliminate mine, he can do whatever he wants after that, he has my vote. I talked to a friend last weekend who said his quality of life got better by magnitudes after his student loan debt was removed from his credit history. I wasn't even aware of that aspect of it.

In fact, if I'm Biden, I'm going scorched earth and eliminating it on my way out as a leg up for the Dems in terms of PR (I know he gave it a half-ass try already, but what does he have to lose at this point?), and while everyone is distracted, pardoning Hunter's crimes, lol



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Ryuu96 said:
zorg1000 said:

I originally thought Shapiro too because of the Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin) but now I’m thinking you don’t actually have to be from there to appeal to those voters. Kamala/Kelly have enough strong qualities to appeal to them.

Also, just out of pure pleasure, I want to see JD Vance TRY to debate Mark Kelly, Lmao.

I can't even think what angle they would try to attack him on (that would actually work).

Honestly, its seems very likely that Harris would have destroyed Vance in a VP debate.  I don't believe that they were ever going to agree to a VP debate.  Now the Democratic ticket can call them out and if they refuse its not gonna look good. 



ToolFan89 said:

Why is he nutty bc he has diff opinion

and half of these ppl arnt even from America why are they commenting I don't take anyone serious if u arnt from America or can't vote shouldn't be even in this thread 

"He" is you on your alt account. Which is now banned.

People not from a particular country who consistently engage in political discussion tend to be more well informed regarding the political matters of that country than the average native citizen, who typically don't do that.

Also:

Are country?
A women?
No punctuation, etc.

It's rich that you are claiming non-Americans can't be taken seriously and shouldn't comment, when all of them seem to have a much better grasp on your own language than you do.
I'd wager they are also more well informed on the election, since that tends to go hand in hand with reading/writing comprehension.

Last edited by Hiku - on 24 July 2024

LegitHyperbole said:

I swear to God I read an article where it was mentioned, something about Obama dumping 20 million votes. It seemed legitimate. But alas, I fail to find it. At any rate it looks like Harris is the one getting the nomination so the article must have been BS anyway. 

Those two sentences are incompatible.  Dumping 20 million votes seems legitimate?  




This has certainly been an interesting turn of events the past few weeks.  The mood has fluctuated quite drastically from hopeful (pre-debate), to dour (post debate) to enthusiastic (enter Kamala).  I've been following elections since the early 90s and there has never been such a substantial upward shift for any party in so short of a time.  If it holds, we will have our first female president. 



To the privileged, equality feels like oppression. 

I have a set of predictions* for the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Deep Color: Safe +15 & Up
Color: +6 to +14
Light Color: +2 to +5
Murky Color: 0 to +1.

1. Vice President Kamala Harris won't be the Democrat nominee. But if she somehow is, she will elect the Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. 

2. Looking at polls right now, the following states will flip red: AZ, GA, ME at large, MI, MN, NE 2, NJ, NH, NM, NV, PA, VA, WI

3. NM has large hispanic/latino population which has been moving to the right, overcoming the usual white community that votes to the left.

4. MI, PA, WI will flip red due to the appeal from the OH senator J. D. Vance.

5. PA will flip red due to the attempted shooting of President Donald J. Trump

6. GA will flip because Vice President Kamala Harris or whoever is chosen as the nominee at the DNC 8/19/24 might not be able to get on the ballot. The same goes for AZ, CA, MD, NC, OH, SD, WV (though the democratic party's presidential nominee and VP nominee will most likely be able to get on the ballots).
CA and SD will find a way. OH will push their date back, but that is only approved after the new proposed deadline. 

GA deadline was July 9th before President Joe R. Biden dropped out, VP Harris wasn't even a thought to the general public at the time.
AZ: 8/9/24
CA: 8/14/24
MD: 8/16/24
NC: 8/2/24
OH: 8/7/24
SD: 8/13/24
WV: 8/19/24
The DNC says they will have a pre-nomination by 8/1/24.

7. If Vice President Kamala Harris is the presidential nominee, she will be running at a 37.8% approval for a -13.6 (which is 4 points better than President Joe R. Biden) against President Donald J. Trump at 42.3% approval for -10.7 (it was a -12 before President Joe R. Biden dropped out). Approval ratings on average match what they will receive in the election.

8. Betting odds set Trump at around 65.36% - 66.67%, with Harris at 38.17% - 41.67%

9. Third-party candidates like RFK Jr., Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, and Cornel West all take voters away from VP Harris. Randall Terry takes voters away from Trump. I can see third parties getting nearly 10% of the total vote (RFK Jr. ~6%, Oliver ~2%, Stein ~>1%, West ~>1%, Terry ~>1%).

*All predictions may change given any new light of information.

If there are any questions, I'll be happy to answer though please forgive if it takes a while. Also, does anyone know what happened to the "Trump v Biden Political Campaign, Policies, etc" thread? I don't know if my answer to Pemalite was ever put up.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Looks like a worst case scenario or a Trump campaign wet dream.



To the privileged, equality feels like oppression.