| Ryuu96 said: It has to be a plain white male moderate, Lol. But Shapiro, Cooper, Beshear and Kelly are all strong choices. Shapiro/Kelly are my favourites but they all offer something good. The thought of Kelly, a former Navy Captain and Astronaut is a strong image. |
Agree with this.
It's become exceedingly clear (e.g. record-breaking launch fundraising, 170,000 volunteers joining after just a few days, mass meme-ification rendering her in the cool zone where Democratic candidates for president belong, etc.) that the simple fact of being the nominee has instantly rendered Harris an Obama-level-plus star amongst the base of the Democratic Party and a few orbiting independents who might've otherwise considered supporting fringe candidates like Jill Stein of the Greens or Cornel West. One can definitely sense the youth and the energy they bring coming back home and the ticket springing back to life from its zombie status under her predecessor. In stark contrast to Biden, she's hosting roaring campaign rallies that are drawing thousands even on weekdays (and her first since emerging at the top of the ticket, from Wednesday, is an instructive example of how to stump the right way, incidentally). This is not fear of Trump we're seeing, it's love of candidate. Liberal Democrats clearly love Kamala Harris. That's great! It's also not good enough. As Bernie Sanders and the few intellectually honest Trump supporters who exist could attest to, hype doesn't mean election victory. So far Trump is still winning this election, folks. The race is closer now (i.e. Biden dropping out was the right move!), but he's still winning. What switching candidates has done in the practical essentially is just erase the effect of the June 27th debate. The Democratic ticket is now back to where it was before that, losing by an average of 2 percentage points instead of 3. So yes, the running mate choice matters! So does the convention. So do any future debates that may happen. Fortunately, things are looking up in that all those things realistically stand to benefit the Harris campaign.
When we look at the initial round of polls for Harris, we see just what we would expect: black voters, women, younger voters, and partisan Democrats are all rallying to the Harris campaign. Harris, however, continues to struggle with the blue collar working class vote that makes up the bulk of the country's population, having so far made zero inroads compared to Biden with the white working class in particular. This is the real dilemma of the modern Democratic Party and it's only growing more pronounced in each successive election anymore. To this end, I say the running mate choice should be someone of more appeal to the manual and menial laboring punch clock workers of this country than most Democrats are these days. Josh Shapiro and Andy Beshear are the strongest options available in that regard and I say that in large part because of the issue of gun politics. While Mark Kelly's actual stance on gun policy is not different from that of Shapiro and Beshear, he is known principally for his gun control advocacy. That makes him a strong option for winning over the suburbs, but gun control is a hot-button issue in rural areas (believe you me) where hunting and sport-shooting are both a way of life and Harris herself has already made banning assault weapons a top-priority issue of hers in her early speeches. I think someone who is known primarily for other things might help the ticket fare a tad better than it otherwise might in small town America and help out just fine in the suburbs too.
The bottom line here though is that Harris solidifies the unity of partisan Democrats in general and liberals in particular. Pretty much all available options for running mates are a bit more conservative than Harris herself is and that will help expand the ticket's appeal to more moderate and independent voters. All of that is as it should be. Experts sometimes debate over whether it's more important to maximize your party's base turnout or instead to persuade outsiders to support you. Winning campaigns don't pick and choose between those options, they do both. The party base is energized and mobilizing thanks to the change at the top of the ticket. The VP pick should be about persuasion; outreach beyond the party's own ranks. And I don't just mean "outreach" in terms of appealing to the broader electorate, but also a VP pick who can potentially persuade a few stray Republicans to support Democratic initiatives because realistically Harris will be inheriting a hostile Congress if she wins. Then comes the convention: a perfect opportunity to shape the narrative around the ticket.
