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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

the-pi-guy said:

This seems like the kind of thing that should be ridiculously good for Democrats in Georgia.

Yes... and no. 

In terms of raw numbers, more black people are voting in early voting. However, white voters have increased their overall share of the early vote. Also, republicans are hugely up in terms of their share of the early vote. 

The question is really what will happen on election day. If the white people, and particularly the republican ones, that are voting in early voting are people that used to vote on election day (or at least did in 2020), and black voters on election day rise in the same way they did in early voting. Well, then Kamala Harris is our next president.

The reverse is also possible though. Maybe the black voters who are voting in GA are people who had previously voted on election day. And the Republicans voting early are voters who didn't vote in 2020. In that case, Trump will win the state (although losing GA doesn't ensure an electoral victory for him the same way it does for Harris). It's also possible that while more republicans are voting early, there will also be new voters on election day.

Unfortunately it's hard to say what will happen, because our best point of comparison is 2020 which was a really weird year. If I had to venture a guess, I would say this is positive news for Democrats. Ridiculously good may be overstating it. 

Damn I can't wait for this election to be over. 



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Ryuu96 said:

Oh look, PredictIt (one of those famous betting markets) is about to flip back to Harris 🫠

Not that I care, but how quickly they change, Lol.

What is interesting is that you can make essentially the same bet in several different ways. Betting Yes or No for Kamala Harris being the next president pays out even money either way.

However, when the question is asked whether she or Trump will win, Trump is favored to the tune of 4cents. 

Betting for republicans to win the electoral college yields a 6 point advantage for Trump.

If people were betting rationally upon good information, that discrepancy is hard, at least for me, to explain. 



Got confused by the Nate's for a second

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 3 days ago

JWeinCom said:
Ryuu96 said:

Oh look, PredictIt (one of those famous betting markets) is about to flip back to Harris 🫠

Not that I care, but how quickly they change, Lol.

What is interesting is that you can make essentially the same bet in several different ways. Betting Yes or No for Kamala Harris being the next president pays out even money either way.

However, when the question is asked whether she or Trump will win, Trump is favored to the tune of 4cents. 

Betting for republicans to win the electoral college yields a 6 point advantage for Trump.

If people were betting rationally upon good information, that discrepancy is hard, at least for me, to explain. 

That French dude better place another $30m bet on Trump in Polymarket, pump those numbers up.

Shame Polymarket is crypto shit, if Harris wins you could probably make good money there but u'know, it's crypto shit.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 3 days ago

RolStoppable said:
Ryuu96 said:

Nice but don't get too confident.

I remain humble, that's why I am not predicting 350+ electoral votes for Harris.

You're cursing us all.



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Own goal after own goal, how the fuck is this so close, Trump has ran one of the worst campaigns in presidential history.



Idk who the fuck this is but I'll take it, another reformed Republican



Ryuu96 said:

Idk who the fuck this is but I'll take it, another reformed Republican

She's been on some wrestling shows lately not as a wrestler but as a celebrity rapper. This is what the wrestling world calls a "face turn".



This is my "vibe-based" prediction for Tuesday.

Personally think Harris is going to take the "blue wall" and Georgia. 

Won't get the western swing states and North Carolina. 



sc94597 said:

This is my "vibe-based" prediction for Tuesday.

Personally think Harris is going to take the "blue wall" and Georgia. 

Won't get the western swing states and North Carolina. 

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 3 days ago