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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

 

Will it reach 40 million?

Yes it will 92 55.09%
 
No, it will fall short 75 44.91%
 
Total:167
trunkswd said:

Yes, we likely have it overtracked. I'm going to wait on Machina's thoughts on what we should do. We had already discussed the gap for PS5 so knew where we wanted it to be (~3M below shipment).

Take-Two used IDG estimates, which for the end of 2023 adjusted their own estimates from an original 77M up to 81M. So it is possible they could adjust up the 94M figure.

Quote from AMD CEO: "This console generation has been very strong. Highlighted by cumulative unit shipments surpassing 100 Million in the fourth quarter."

That suggests the 100M shipment figure for PS5 and XS happened sometime during the 4th quarter and unlikely at the end. I am guessing if it hit 110M during the quarter AMD would have said so.

Edit: Adding one more thing. Historically US has accounted four around 50% of Xbox for each generation and we have Xbox Series X|S at 16.48M at the end of 2024, which should be within a few % of NPD/Circana data given we have Xbox One data and they provided how much behind the Xbox Series X|S is to the Xbox One by %.

This would be much easier if Microsoft have us shipment figures like Sony and Nintendo do.

Totally agree.  Its obvious that not providing the info like everyone else is a PR decision.  Although the biggest hint, to me, that sales are not good is the incredible bullishness to get their games on PS5.  I would say that in business the best way to get sales is to follow the consumers... don't expect them to follow you.   Keep up the good work and it will be interesting to see where your estimates land. 



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Why does AMD celebrate ''their consoles'' (PS, Xbox) selling 100 million units? Nvidia has a console with their tech in the Switch and they don't celebrate anything at all about Switch selling 150 million.



Even if IDG adjusted their estimates it would be with PS5 sales. I bet last year the modus operandi was the same "IDG updated their estimates and that increase must be Series in its entirety" Even if AMD settled for 100M instead of them being actually slightly higher it wouldn't matter because those would be PS5 sales. A quarter with Series down 29% (to put the cherry on top of 2 years of falls) and PS5 16% higher can't help your estimates in any way.

Let's say AMD's number was actually 110 million or it reached that amount in last quarter? How would that help Serie's case? Out of those last 10M, 8M would be PS5 units.

Same goes for IDG. Let's say they thought PS5 would fare far worse. If they were to adjust them it would be in favor of PS5. Or are you telling me they thought that Series would perform even worse? Even if that was the case the adjustment would be minimal because Series sales are crashing down the Cliffs of Insanity.



Sephiran said:

Why does AMD celebrate ''their consoles'' (PS, Xbox) selling 100 million units? Nvidia has a console with their tech in the Switch and they don't celebrate anything at all about Switch selling 150 million.

Probably because of the profit made on the chips sold... and how much each company values that profit/revenue.

AMD likely make much more selling the chips for PS5/XsX than the smaller nvidia ones for the Switch.
And because Nvidia makes BANK.... they give zero f***s for the small numbers nintendo gives them.
For them, its all about the AI boom, and super computers ect.
meanwhile AMD is a smaller company makeing much less.... so for them, the console  bussiness is actually important.



Esparadrapo said:

Even if IDG adjusted their estimates it would be with PS5 sales. I bet last year the modus operandi was the same "IDG updated their estimates and that increase must be Series in its entirety" Even if AMD settled for 100M instead of them being actually slightly higher it wouldn't matter because those would be PS5 sales. A quarter with Series down 29% (to put the cherry on top of 2 years of falls) and PS5 16% higher can't help your estimates in any way.

Let's say AMD's number was actually 110 million or it reached that amount in last quarter? How would that help Serie's case? Out of those last 10M, 8M would be PS5 units.

Same goes for IDG. Let's say they thought PS5 would fare far worse. If they were to adjust them it would be in favor of PS5. Or are you telling me they thought that Series would perform even worse? Even if that was the case the adjustment would be minimal because Series sales are crashing down the Cliffs of Insanity.

True, its pretty funny that even when Nintendo revealed Switch 2, Nvidia didn't give a crap about it and hasn't said or posted anything about it. Its like nothing to them.



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Well Nvidia is a $3 trillion company and the Switch, as popular as it is, probably doesn’t even register in their reality, a reality consumed almost entirely by AI Techbros.



Funniest thing about the AMD and IDG figures is that there are rabid fanboys in both ends of the possible Series estimates. Zubytech (or whatever he's called) in the low end and Welfare in the high end. I'll list what we are playing with in their credibility order:

  • Sony distributed 9.5 million PS5 this quarter for a grand total of 75 million. (certainty)
  • AMD stated that Gen 9 crossed the 100 million units last quarter. (by the start or end of the quarter. certainty)
  • IDG estimates 94 million Gen 9 consoles by November. (by the start or end of November. Estimation that might be updated)

Zubytech is assuming that crossing 100M units happened by the end of the quarter leaving no room for more than 25 million. It is "possible" but highly unlikely. It also aligns with IDC's estimates leaving 5 million units for the PS5 and 1 million for Series in December. Again, I think this is a malicious take and Series sales aren't that low.

Welfare is assuming that crossing 100M units happened right by the start of the quarter and Gen 9 sold 75 million PS5 + 36 million Series = 111 million Gen 9 units by the end of it. This doesn't align with IDC estimates and its 94 million Gen 9 units by November. Even if that was updated to 100 million by the start of November it wouldn't align because it would mean 11 million Gen 9 units sold in two months. Again, IDC's estimates should need to be adjusted with an additional six million units. IMHO, Welfare's figures are wildly overestimated.

A more rational take is agreeing with both AMD and IDC. 94 million Gen 9 units by the start of November leaves 6 million to reach AMD's milestone. Taking VGChartz's estimates for November and December would mean 10 million to add to IDC's 94 million for a grand 104 million Gen 9 units by the end of last quarter. 104 million Gen 9 units - 75 million PS5 units = 29 million Series units. Even if IDC were to update their estimations it wouldn't be a radical change over this.



Welfare has got it all wrong. He overestimated the Xbox Series X/S sales, but will never admit it.

Derek Strickland also made the same mistake.

That's what happens when you start inventing figures based on assumptions instead of sticking to the official datas as they are.

Last edited by Evilms - on 14 February 2025

Evilms said:

Welfare has got it all wrong. He overestimated the Xbox Series X/S sales, but will never admit it.

Derek Strickland also made the same mistake.

That's what happens when you start inventing figures based on assumptions instead of sticking to the official datas as they are.

He's got the promised video up. I can't believe the level of deflection to hide that his 36 million estimate is at the same level.



Esparadrapo said:
Evilms said:

Welfare has got it all wrong. He overestimated the Xbox Series X/S sales, but will never admit it.

Derek Strickland also made the same mistake.

That's what happens when you start inventing figures based on assumptions instead of sticking to the official datas as they are.

He's got the promised video up. I can't believe the level of deflection to hide that his 36 million estimate is at the same level.

I think he is right, in this video.
Xbox likely is above 30m.  (people saying xbox is only at 25m are wrong (like he claims))

Its probably not sitting at 36m though (as he mentioned before).
I think its closer to ~31m, if I had to guess (thats shipped chips, from AMD, to xbox, to make consoles out of).

If AMD had made more than 110m chips sold to consoles, they would have announced over 110m instead of over 100m (I personally think).
However if the number is like 105m-106m.... they might not want to seem petty with their announcements (and give exact numbers).

That way, it could make sense that sony got over 75m, and xbox had over 30m, and still make for a AMD announcement of 100m+.
If Xbox was at 36m, AMD would have announced over 110m.... that much I think is reasonable to assume.