@ Esparadrapo
"Doesn't this leave the Series console units at ~30M?"

On ResetEra they talked about this. This should be data from November.
We know that "Sony announced that PlayStation had sold 65.5 as of September 31".

There could be some Shipping vs Sold-through stuff... but...

Unless the "94m" is off (here from T2)... and the + is bigger than say just 1m units... I would think they are implying Xbox is below 28m (back in November 2024).

Edit:

Welfare made a video about this topic (almost right after T2 made this stuff avaliable)....
He seems to think T2 are wrong, and Xbox could be as high as 36m shipped (maybe abit under) (by end of Jan 2025) (so like 34m sold through).
But others point out (on resetera), he leans abit towards xbox side, and might have a slight bias/high numbers.

I'd take a professional firm over Welfare's estimates any day of the week. He seems to build castles in the sky at every turn and use them as foundation for even more wild speculation. If you ask me his 36M estimate seems wishful thinking.

Even the estimates on this site seem overinflated for no reason when researching firm upon researching firm put the Series units far lower than any hobbyist cooking the numbers.

This site just estimated Xbox's worst year of sales ever (in a non-launch year), worse than even the original xbox was doing, they're not overinflated for no reason. If there was actual valid information that proved the numbers were too high then they would be adjusted. The Take Two numbers you posted aren't proof of this, AMD's numbers aren't proof of this. If you have more data then share this.

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Hobbyists making estimations build upon an already imaginary foundation and they cook upon cooked data because Microsoft doesn't share the units sold for nearly a decade now. They even have to make up the revenue split between content and services and hardware. Then you have a handful of SKUs wildly varying in prices for ratios that they seem to be trying to solve like a puzzle with missing pieces and imaginary ones. They they don't want to be far from each other so they aren't called fanboys or haters.

So posting the worst year of sales ever doesn't make the grand total any accurate if the data prior to that suffers from severe poisoning.

To me this amounts to wild speculation at best that's only valuable as fodder for bickering on forums.

Correct, Microsoft doesn't share the numbers, so everyone, including analyst firms and companies like Take Two are speculating. MS and to an extent AMD are the only two who know the true figure. As your last line says, I would suggest not wildly speculating and bickering that the estimated number is overly inflated lol.

Take 2 paid for those estimates. Banding hobbyists and professional firms together seems disingenuous at the very least.

Omdia estimate 33m Xbox Series consoles sold by the end of 2024, professional firms are all over the place and don't agree with each other also. Everyone is speculating on Xbox sales.

Who will reach it first? Switch 2 or XBone 2?

Given that Nintendo has the potential to sell well in all 3 major console markets (NA, EU, Japan) they are well placed to reach 40 million units sold before Xbox given that Xbox only has the ability to sell decently in 1 major console market (NA).

Personally think VGchartz is close to the real number.
Like if you see a spread of numbers, being somewhere in the middle of what people claim, is also the safest bet.
At least that way your off by the least amount, regardless.

Xbox should hit 40m sometime in 2027... right? Unless something goes really really wrong.
Switch 2, supposedly has 20m+ planned units ready for its first year.
If Nintendo can do 2 back to back, years of Switch 2, doing 20m.... it might hit 40m before the Xbox Series X/s.
It'll probably be a close call between the 2.

Lets see if the rumored next xbox is 2026 or not.