Tober said:
Putin wants a potential threat away from Moskou. All Russian leaders do. Moskou is very close to the Ukraine border. A potential NATO membership is seen as an existential risk by the Russians. Russia has been invaded twice from the west through the Ukraine plains. By Napoleon and Hitler. Russia wants a buffer zone they control. It's not important to them how they control it. Either by leadership in Ukraine that is loyal to them or control outright. This is the reason Russia through the Soviet Union kept control of Eastern Europe after WW2. Ukraine leadership was a partner for a long time, until the coup happened that disposed this leadership then pro-EU leadership came into place. This caused Russia first to take Crimea and later escalated to the invasion after the door to NATO was opened to Ukraine. It's not a movie or video game where the evil one is just evil because "I want to rule the world wra ha ha". Putin does not go about this because he has some dream of Russia taking over Europe just for glory or anything like that. It's 100 millions Russians against 400 million Europeans. That would be impossible. He's looking to restore that buffer zone in some way. Obviously the invasion is really bad and some other solution needs to be found. The only one I can think of is giving Putin some kind of assurances Ukraine will never join NATO for him to back down. Until then we are in perpetual war. |
None of this excuses the unlawful invasion of another country.
Again, the NATO excuse is Russian propaganda for a domestic audience to eat up and ignite their patriotic spirit to "defend" Russia, they have to sell that Ukraine is an actual threat to them, unfortunately some in the West so easily buy into this propaganda too even though a second of thought being put into it shows you how stupid it actually is.
"Putin wants a potential threat away from Moskou."
Irrelevant. Estonia, Latvia and now Finland all border Russia, are you forgetting how close Estonia and Latvia are in particular to St Petersburg? It may not be Moscow but it is still a vital city for Russia. Should Poland invade Kaliningrad because its too close to Warsaw and also housing nuclear weapons and the HQ of Russia's Baltic Fleet?
How do you also justify with this logic, why Russia has moved troops away from the Finnish border?
Explain how turning Ukraine into a lifelong enemy of Russia, who is now attacking deep inside of Russia, who will hate Russia for as long as I will live and want nothing more than to see their demise now, an almost permanent ally unless serious changes happen inside of Russia, right on their damn border, is preferable to Ukraine joining a defensive organisation that wouldn't attack Russia unless Russia attacked them first.
How is Russia, sending hundreds of thousands of troops to their deaths, tens of thousands of military equipment to the scrapyard whilst NATO only sends probably around 5% of their total military power, if even that, mostly consisting of their old stuff, whilst sanctioning Russia to hell and back making them more secure against this apparent "NATO threat"
Moskou is very close to the Ukraine border.
Irrelevant. The difference between Estonia/Latvia vs Ukraine to Moscow is a minor difference/complication for an invading force, if such a "fear" was a legit concern. Modern militaries don't fight their wars anymore by sending thousands of bodies to go march in a straight line, if NATO wanted to do harm to Russia, they could do so very easily even without Ukraine and Putin already knows this.
The West would focus on air superiority, blitzing Russia from the skies and only when they achieve that will they send troops into Russia, it may not even be necessary at all to capture Moscow with soldiers if it's a burning pile of rubble. This is the primary objective of modern militaries today, air superiority is a must and once it is achieved, it is pretty much game over.
A potential NATO membership is seen as an existential risk by the Russians.
Russia is seen as an existential risk by the Ukrainians, by the Polish, by the Finnish, by the Latvians, by the Estonians, etc.
Russia has been invaded twice from the west through the Ukraine plains.
So?
By Napoleon and Hitler.
Really, Napoleon? How far back do we have to go? Hitler? Hard to feel sorry for Russia there, they sided with the Nazis until Germany backstabbed them. You also know that other countries were invaded by Germany too, right? Should UK invade Germany today because they invaded us once? Why is it that Germany, Japan and others have managed to restore relations with countries they once fucked over but Russia hasn't?
Because Russia has barely tried, the Russian leadership is barely any different from the Soviet Union. Same assholes, different name. Chechnya, Georgia, Transnistria, Crimea/Donbas - Whole of Ukraine, Poisonings on UK Soil, etc.
Russia wants a buffer zone they control.
They have Belarus, or more accurately, they have Lukashenko.
It's not important to them how they control it. Either by leadership in Ukraine that is loyal to them or control outright.
Grats on describing a fascist state.
This is the reason Russia through the Soviet Union kept control of Eastern Europe after WW2.
How's that work out for them? Most of them hate Russia now.
Ukraine leadership was a partner for a long time, until the coup happened that disposed this leadership then pro-EU leadership came into place.
Ukraine was moving to pro-Europe views even before the leadership was disposed of, in fact the protests which led to his eventual removal were largely down to him being a Russian puppet and ignoring the public on wanting to be more closely aligned with Europe. Heck, even Zelenskyy has received protests and criticism from Ukrainians for being too soft on Russia in the past.
This caused Russia first to take Crimea and later escalated to the invasion after the door to NATO was opened to Ukraine.
Crimea was the invasion, Crimea is Ukraine. In addition, the door was barely ever open to Ukraine, the last time it was even discussed, Germany opposed it and all it takes is one country of all NATO members to oppose a member for it to fail. Ukraine will not be able to join NATO as long as it's in an active conflict and it was in an active conflict because of Russia, Ukraine never recognised Crimea as Russian.
All Russia needed to do is keep up the fighting in Donbas and refuse to give Ukraine Crimea back and Ukraine wouldn't be joining NATO anytime soon. Even now, countries in Western Europe are reluctant about Ukraine joining, notably Germany and USA, whilst Eastern Europe is unsurprisingly in favour of it.
It's not a movie or video game where the evil one is just evil because "I want to rule the world wra ha ha"
Except in the case of Putin, it is. In the case of Hitler, another fella you mentioned, it was.
Putin does not go about this because he has some dream of Russia taking over Europe just for glory or anything like that.
Yeah, he does, at least the former Soviet Union countries he wants back. Putin wants to make a legacy for himself in his old age, he wants to restore Russia to its former glory, they've pretty openly spoken about these things, they've straight up said that don't consider Ukraine an actual legitimate country and it's still part of Russia. They also want Ukraine for its resources and access to the Black Sea.
It's 100 millions Russians against 400 million Europeans. That would be impossible.
Irrelevant numbers to a psychopath who is overconfident in his abilities and underestimates his enemy, all Putin needs to believe is that the West wouldn't fight back or at least hold back in some fashion because they're too afraid of a nuclear war. It's a very dangerous game to give a madman like Putin more confidence than he already has.
Also, on paper Russia is massively ahead of Ukraine in every military way and yet are struggling so much in Ukraine, despite that, constantly singing praise about how everything is going perfect and Russia is the best army in the world and they're only having competition because they're fighting all of NATO, Lol. Ukraine's defeat to many in Russia would be seen as a Russian victory against NATO.
Obviously the invasion is really bad and some other solution needs to be found.
Solution is simple, Putin fucks off out of Ukraine, including Crimea and minds his own business, that or the West ramps up assistance to Ukraine until they push every last Russian soldier out of the country.
The only one I can think of is giving Putin some kind of assurances Ukraine will never join NATO for him to back down.
Firstly, Russia has absolutely no right to demand that of an independent country.
Secondly, how will it be enforced? I have the answer for that, it won't be, Russia will restore its military over the years and come back for Round 3 to take more of Ukraine, Russia has already broken promises to Ukraine before, notably the Budapest Memorandum and nobody can trust them at their word anymore, least of all, Ukraine.
- Russia takes Crimea
- People in the West: Lets just have peace, let em have it and make them promise to not take anymore!
- Russia takes Donbas
- People in the West: Lets just have peace, let em have it and make them promise to not take anymore!
- Russia takes Kharkhiv
- People in the West: Lets just have peace, let em have it and make them promise to not take anymore!
- Russia takes Kyiv
- People in the West: Lets just have peace, let em have it and make them promise to not take anymore!
Etc. Etc. I can't believe anyone would seriously suggest this as a legit solution anymore, it's utterly naïve.
Russia themselves have contradicted the NATO argument, Russia themselves have given 20,000 different reasons for the invasion. They poison the well with so much bullshit that it doesn't need to make sense, as long as they send a bunch of propaganda nonsense into the feeds and it causes confusion and doubt then it's doing its job.