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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch 2 2024 first party lineup

zorg1000 on 04 August 2023
HyrulianScrolls said:
Slownenberg said:

3D Mario has gotta be launch day. Full stop.

MK is the big party game and the long term sales beast, but for a big launch you want a critically acclaimed one player game. Every Nintendo console has launched with either cutting edge Mario or Zelda except GC and WiiU - the two sales flops. GC had Luigi's Mansion, WiiU only had 2D Mario. There is zero chance Switch 2 comes out without 3D Mario on launch day. And it's not like they haven't had as many years as they could ask for to get the next 3D Mario ready, so not being ready for the launch won't be a problem. Mario Kart could also be launch day but I think more likely it'll be like they did on the Switch where it comes out a few weeks later cuz may as well give consumers a second burst of excitement a few weeks later rather than just all in one day. So if it's a Nov 2024 launch, MK9 probably first week of December.

Agree on Prime 4 being a possible early Switch 2 title. I don't expect it to be cross gen, I think they either are finishing it up as a Switch game or I feel like at this point more likely they moved it to being a next gen game and that's why we haven't heard about it yet. I think next gen is more likely than them doing two totally different graphical builds for the game just to make it cross gen, or hampering the next gen version by just having it be a prettier version of the Switch build. But yeah could see a next gen Prime 4 come out in that launch period or a few months later like an early 2025 release. Kinda think with Mario and MK9 in the launch period they'd probably give Prime 4 some breathing space and not also put that during the launch and instead set it up as the start of a great 2025.

There’s 0% chance we get both 3D Mario and MK9 in the launch window. They’re not playing their two big cards right away, nor should they. So I say pick one. MK is far more likely for many reasons I think. Mostly since we are at a full decade between MK8s original release now, it has been ages. Surely they’ve been working on this game for the new system for years and years already. MK also has way more pull, as I mentioned. And finally, 3D Mario hasn’t launched with one of their systems since waayy back in the N64 days. So I don’t see that changing here. 

Also, I highly doubt they will nix the Switch version of MP4 entirely. They literally announced that game for Switch right after launch. They’d have a lot of angry fans likely, and honestly they’d have a right to be upset. Plus Metroid needs all the help it can get from the massive Switch install base, not like those games just sell. 

Maybe not both in the launch window but 3D Mario and MK have released within 6 months of each other on every console since Wii.

Mario Galaxy-Nov 2007, Mario Kart Wii-April 2008

Mario 3D Land-Nov 2011, Mario Kart 7-Dec 2011

Mario 3D World-Nov 2013, Mario Kart 8-May 2014

Mario Kart 8D-April 2017, Mario Odyssey-Oct 2017

If 3D Mario is a launch title in Fall 2024 than I expect Mario Kart the following Spring.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Torpoleon on 04 August 2023

I don't see an issue with them doing 3D Mario at launch in September 2024 and then Mario Kart a month later, kind of like the 3DS in Holiday 2011 or even the Switch's launch (Zelda-Mario Kart).



HyrulianScrolls on 08 August 2023

I think we are a long long way out from new Smash or new Zelda, so playing both Mario and Mario Kart at launch seems like they’re kind of setting themselves up to not have a heavy hitter for a long time after that. Unless they have a much quicker turnaround on Animal Crossing happening. Pokémon better take its time, GameFreak proved they don’t even know how to develop for Switch let alone way more advanced hardware.



Torpoleon on 08 August 2023

@HyrulianScrolls I think Animal Crossing in Spring 2025 would be reasonable. Splatoon & Animal Crossing have basically been alternating. Splatoon 3 was released 2 and a half years after ACNH (likely would've been shorter if not for covid), so having a new AC 2 and a half years later on new hardware seems reasonable. I agree that Pokemon should take their time, but I think we all know they won't. I'm expecting Gen 10 exclusively on the successor in Holiday 2025. We could also get Mario Party that holiday, assuming we don't get another entry on Switch.

I could actually see Smash launching in Holiday 2026. I do agree that it will be a while for a new open world Zelda though. Maybe Early 2029. Maybe we will get 2D Mario in 2026 and Splatoon 4 in 2027 or 2028.



Slownenberg on 09 August 2023
HyrulianScrolls said:
Slownenberg said:

3D Mario has gotta be launch day. Full stop.

MK is the big party game and the long term sales beast, but for a big launch you want a critically acclaimed one player game. Every Nintendo console has launched with either cutting edge Mario or Zelda except GC and WiiU - the two sales flops. GC had Luigi's Mansion, WiiU only had 2D Mario. There is zero chance Switch 2 comes out without 3D Mario on launch day. And it's not like they haven't had as many years as they could ask for to get the next 3D Mario ready, so not being ready for the launch won't be a problem. Mario Kart could also be launch day but I think more likely it'll be like they did on the Switch where it comes out a few weeks later cuz may as well give consumers a second burst of excitement a few weeks later rather than just all in one day. So if it's a Nov 2024 launch, MK9 probably first week of December.

Agree on Prime 4 being a possible early Switch 2 title. I don't expect it to be cross gen, I think they either are finishing it up as a Switch game or I feel like at this point more likely they moved it to being a next gen game and that's why we haven't heard about it yet. I think next gen is more likely than them doing two totally different graphical builds for the game just to make it cross gen, or hampering the next gen version by just having it be a prettier version of the Switch build. But yeah could see a next gen Prime 4 come out in that launch period or a few months later like an early 2025 release. Kinda think with Mario and MK9 in the launch period they'd probably give Prime 4 some breathing space and not also put that during the launch and instead set it up as the start of a great 2025.

There’s 0% chance we get both 3D Mario and MK9 in the launch window. They’re not playing their two big cards right away, nor should they. So I say pick one. MK is far more likely for many reasons I think. Mostly since we are at a full decade between MK8s original release now, it has been ages. Surely they’ve been working on this game for the new system for years and years already. MK also has way more pull, as I mentioned. And finally, 3D Mario hasn’t launched with one of their systems since waayy back in the N64 days. So I don’t see that changing here. 

Also, I highly doubt they will nix the Switch version of MP4 entirely. They literally announced that game for Switch right after launch. They’d have a lot of angry fans likely, and honestly they’d have a right to be upset. Plus Metroid needs all the help it can get from the massive Switch install base, not like those games just sell. 

Did you miss the Switch launch??

Botw launch day, MK like 8 weeks later.

Makes perfect sense for Nintendo to do same thing this time. 3D Mario launch day, MK9 a few weeks later. Nintendo knows they need to launch their systems with either a critically acclaimed 3D Zelda or a critically acclaimed 3D Mario. Obviously for next gen it's Mario's turn.

So no way they launch without 3D Mario on day 1. That's a given. And I'm sure MK9 will be ready when the system launches so while they probably don't want both of those day 1, MK9 would be perfect for a few weeks later. Companies WANT to have good launches. Wouldn't make any sense for them to hold back MK9 just to to make their launch weaker. There are plenty of other games they can get ready for year 1 post-launch period, but 3D Mario + casual party game day 1 and MK9 a month or so afterward (depending on when the system launch date is) makes the most sense.



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Slownenberg on 09 August 2023
Torpoleon said:

@HyrulianScrolls I think Animal Crossing in Spring 2025 would be reasonable. Splatoon & Animal Crossing have basically been alternating. Splatoon 3 was released 2 and a half years after ACNH (likely would've been shorter if not for covid), so having a new AC 2 and a half years later on new hardware seems reasonable. I agree that Pokemon should take their time, but I think we all know they won't. I'm expecting Gen 10 exclusively on the successor in Holiday 2025. We could also get Mario Party that holiday, assuming we don't get another entry on Switch.

I could actually see Smash launching in Holiday 2026. I do agree that it will be a while for a new open world Zelda though. Maybe Early 2029. Maybe we will get 2D Mario in 2026 and Splatoon 4 in 2027 or 2028.

2024:

Day 1: 3D Mario day, Casual party game

Few weeks later (still in launch window): Mario Kart 9

2025:

Metroid Prime 4 (if not current gen)

DK (if not current gen)

Arms 2 or Astral Chain 2 or some other more niche title like that

Something like Yoshi or Luigi's Mansion or something that wasn't on Switch like Star Fox or Kid Icarus

Mario Maker or Paper Mario or Mario Party

Maybe next gen Nintendo fitness game

I could see Animal Crossing in 2025

Next mainline Pokemon game for the holidays

2026:

Luigi's Mansion 4

Splatoon 4

Xenoblade 4

2D Zelda??? (I really hope they haven't abandoned making new 2D Zeldas)

Mario Maker or Paper Mario or Mario Party

Kirby

One or two of the leftover optional games from 2025 above (Yoshi, Luigi's Mansion, Star Fox, Kid Icarus, Astral Chain, Arms 2)

I see the first 2+ years going something like this. Smash, 2D Mario, and 3D Zelda are all gonna be in like year 4/5/6 since we can be pretty dang sure they haven't even started planning those.



HyrulianScrolls on 13 August 2023

3D Mario has launched on day 1 of a Nintendo console only once 30 years ago, so y’all are being very confident in a first. Historically, except for 64, Nintendo has launched all of its first 3D Mario’s on a system either 8 months or 1 year after launch (Sunshine/Odyssey 8 month; Galaxy/3D World 1 year). 

Last edited by HyrulianScrolls - on 13 August 2023