firebush03 said:
Looking at the first line: It seems we are agree on the premise that state military is needed to overthrow U.S. government. That said…there is zero indicators that the military, who is (at the moment) the most fervently patriotic, will assist in overthrowing the government. However, anything is possible, so I won’t completely dismiss it (though it is highly unlikely).
Looking at everything else: I’m not sure how realistic it is that there will be a collapse in the economy. (Unless “political-economy” refers to something other than the economy? A cursory search on Google tells me that “political economy” refers to a branch of social science…and I’m assuming that wasn’t your intention lol.) Yeah, the economy won’t be doing too hot with the Iran conflict, for example, but it won’t be the end of times.
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"Political-economy" is not just used to refer to the broad subject, but also specific political-economic systems or conditions.
Anyway, what I think you're missing is that any political, economic, or political-economic system is a balancing act of many different forces. For example, what happens if the unemployment rate in your given country goes up to 20% from single digits over the course of a half-decade? Is the response of your government different if it has large deficits due to a bloated investment in defense for adventurist military endeavors than if the deficits were relatively smaller? What is the response if your country can't take a more proactive stimulus because of this burden and has already fraying social service institutions? How does that impact the morale of your military? Is this military an isolated force, or part of the general populous and reflective of the sentiments of that populous, with all of the diversity wherein?
And no I don't think the aggression in this hypothetical (although not entirely unlikely) situation is purely military violence. There are economic forces as well, such as concepts like general strike, sabotage, sit-in strikes, low consumer demand, tax evasion/tax strikes, fraying of public infrastructure, transition of tax burdens from federal to state governments, etc that would come to play. It doesn't manifest in a singular event of the government being overthrown immediately, but a series of fraying events until it is very simple for the populous to discard a severely shelled-out highly-delegitimized government, as was the case with the transition from Imperial Russia -> Soviet Union and Absolutist France -> First French Republic.
Furthermore, the military will only have high morale in so much as its standards are kept (including the perceived standards of care for the members), and those will (and have already) fray(ed) as the rest of the society's material conditions and trust in public institutions fray. The various forms of military work are a set of jobs after all, like all others. And again we are talking about a period after the military was sent to fight and die in another adventurist war, but this time with a country three times as large as the previous ones of this century.
It's not a coincidence that almost all of these major revolutionary events (if we want an American example, Civil Rights Era or American Revolutionary War) happen right after a war constrains the political and economic institutions: World War 1 for Soviet Union, Seven Years War/French-Indian War for American Revolutionary War, Seven Years War (and American Revolutionary War) for French Revolution, War in Vietnam for Civil Right Revolution, etc.
Last edited by sc94597 - on 17 June 2025
