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Ryuu96 on 15 May 2023



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Ryuu96 on 15 May 2023

Jesus Christ, Lol. Cloud Service Providers not even having to pay a fee is crazy good.

CMA thinks Activision-Blizzard will give them it for free as an independent entity? Lmao.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 15 May 2023

Ryuu96 on 15 May 2023

Waiittt a minute.

  • The acquisition would harm competition in the distribution of PC and console games via cloud game streaming services, an innovative market segment that could transform the way many gamers play video games. Despite its potential, cloud game streaming is very limited today. The Commission found that the popularity of Activision's games could promote its growth. Instead, if Microsoft made Activision's games exclusive to its own cloud game streaming service, Game Pass Ultimate, and withheld them from rival cloud game streaming providers, it would reduce competition in the distribution of games via cloud game streaming.

@EpicRandy Does that read to you like EC doesn't consider Cloud Gaming its own market?



EpicRandy on 15 May 2023
Ryuu96 said:
EpicRandy said:

True, but, IMO  it's another argument as to why MS should just pause their Xcloud Initiative globally and close the deal. The breakup fee alone already amount to several year worths of XCloud revenue after all. 

I'm thinking MS could just be waiting for the EU to approve and maybe some other market too, then they'll "pause" Xcloud globally and close over the FTC. Also, MS could just license their XCloud server to a third party and contract them to offer the same experience with GPU essentially making CMA conclusion a non-standing issue and still be feature complete on GPU and still be able to bring some revenue from Xcloud technologies.

Anyway Still think it's unlikely, something like 25%, but the more I think about this route and all the possibilities MS would have to mitigate any losses and the undeniable extreme benefits of closing the deals the more I think MS would be very dumb not to shelve Xcloud for 4-5 years.

There's no way around it now though, CMA has blocked the deal, Microsoft can't offer anymore concessions until it goes through CAT first and that will go way beyond the merger agreement date, negotiations with CMA are finished and can't be re-opened. As long as they don't have CMA's approval, they can't close the deal.

Idas estimated that the breakup fee would increase to $5bn-$8bn and looking at Activision-Blizzard's current market cap, Microsoft acquired them at a 45% premium back then for $69bn cash so if we use the same 45% premium, they'd now be acquiring Activision-Blizzard now for $96bn if I've got that right, Lol.

In addition, Microsoft's market share actually increased when the news broke of CMA blocking the deal so I wonder if MS shareholders even want ABK.

If that's true that's messed up, I mean why would ring-fencing even be a thing and just plain leaving the problematic market that has been identified not be adequate? IMO, that's not another remedy proposal that's just complying with the conclusion at face value.



Ryuu96 on 15 May 2023



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Ryuu96 on 15 May 2023

These crazy concessions apply globally.

...Wonder if there's a chance of remittal on the CMA's part in light of new evidence.



Ryuu96 on 15 May 2023

Under supervision of the Commission, an independent trustee will be in charge of monitoring their implementation.

The EU will also monitor it Globally, destroying another concern of CMA (we can't be bothered to monitor it).



EpicRandy on 15 May 2023
Ryuu96 said:

Waiittt a minute.

  • The acquisition would harm competition in the distribution of PC and console games via cloud game streaming services, an innovative market segment that could transform the way many gamers play video games. Despite its potential, cloud game streaming is very limited today. The Commission found that the popularity of Activision's games could promote its growth. Instead, if Microsoft made Activision's games exclusive to its own cloud game streaming service, Game Pass Ultimate, and withheld them from rival cloud game streaming providers, it would reduce competition in the distribution of games via cloud game streaming.

@EpicRandy Does that read to you like EC doesn't consider Cloud Gaming its own market?

Looks like it's only considered a segment of a larger market but they still identified it as problematic. If MS did not propose any remedies to those issues, the EU would have also blocked the deal on those findings. So on the 1 hand, it's not considered distinct enough to be its own standalone market, on the other hand, it's distinctive enough to warrant its own consideration. 

Don't know exactly what to make of this...



Ryuu96 on 15 May 2023

EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager on Monday described the deal as "pro-competitive" and that it would "kickstart" the cloud streaming market, which represents just 1% to 3% of the entire gaming market.

The EU's Vestager said the difference in conclusions between EU and UK regulators centered on how quickly the cloud gaming market would develop in the future.

"We agree that the cloud streaming market is a promising market. We may disagree about the speed at which it will develop," Vestager said, adding that the EU sees a longer development period for cloud gaming than the UK.

Chance of success in legal challenges to the FTC and CMA remain low according to Bloomberg.

While the EU decision offers a glimmer of hope, "it probably doesn't change much" for Microsoft's chances of success in legal challenges to the FTC and CMA, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jennifer Rie.

That's "because each jurisdiction has made its decision based on the market conditions in their own region," she said. "These conditions may differ, which can lead to a different conclusion on the antitrust impact of a deal."

The deal will unlock significant benefits for competition and consumers according to the EC.

The European Commission defended its findings, saying that the commitments will empower millions of European consumers "to stream Activision's games using any cloud gaming services" operating in the EU region.

"The commitments will unlock significant benefits for competition and consumers, by bringing Activision's games to new platforms, including smaller EU players, and to more devices than before," a statement from the commission said.

Microsoft’s (MSFT) $69 Billion Activision (ATVI) Deal Wins EU Approval - Bloomberg



Ryuu96 on 15 May 2023

Yeah, even if this is sent back to CMA, they aren't changing their minds, Lmao.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 15 May 2023