Yes

Logo doesn't mean much at the moment. People prefer to see games, no promises but games.

4th game at the showcase won't be Project Mara - I heard this was just a concept and not a game

No it doesn't because if anything MS has been giving you games so that cannot be the issue.  I would say since 2023 MS cadance for games output has been solid no matter if you enjoy the games or not. 10 games released in 2025 how many only the schedule for this year, I believe 6 that has been announced. How many games are going to make you happy.

Except for Oblivion Remastered (literally not made by a xbox game studio) most games felt like a dud. Avowed did not reach what we hoped for,  Perfect dark and Everwild got cancelled, more lay offs and projects cancelled like the MMO from Bethesda that people were excited for. Gears of war Reloaded was just another rerelease, COD BO7 was one of the of the worst COD's in years, Fallout online had another update with a ton of issues similar with Fallout 4 anniversary edition. Towerborne came and went...  All of it is not what I consider 'Solid'

I'm betting on it being Kiln by Double Fine. Announced in 2017 and quiet ever since.

VGC saying it's a smaller original game by a first party studio.

"we" hoped for; the "we" is the problem, there is media/YouTube/gaming community non-stop bashing at whatever Microsoft is doing.
I get that this is an opinion, but in my opinion, you are wrong:

Avowed,
Diablo 4 Exp.
DOOM: The Dark Ages
Fallout 76 exp.
The Elder Scroll Online Exp.
BO7,
The Outer World 2,
South of Midnight,
Gears of War Reloaded,
Indiana Jones Exp.,
etc...

And I am probably forgetting several... There is literally no other publisher coming out with that many games and calling all of those game "dud" is something... I mean at some point what do you want or expect lol.

Just because they cancelled a few games, does not make all the other games disappear... As Machiavellian said, the issue is somewhere else. Whatever Xbox does, it is never enough, and people are sticking to anything they can to bash them. For some reason some other publisher come out with "one" game per year it is like the new jesus but whatever Microsoft does is never good enough... 

When they don't have games, people bitch them because they have no games,

When they have games (and WAY more than any others), then the games are all bad (and strangely enough, those games were good when Microsoft did not own the studios)...

So what's next? come on...

Doom TDA was fun. Liked it more than Eternal. Really enjoyed Ninja Gaiden 4.

I am wrong even when media/gamers agree? bashing = Because MS deserves it.  

Just from your list people expected a ton more of Avowed at best you can call it fine,
Diablo community is on fire they are not liking it,
Doom TDA is not that received well by the community,
Fallout 76 exp literally comes with a ton of issues. 
ESO can't tell it is just their. 
Bo7 isn't really liked even sales are down a lot compared to BO6.
The Outer world 2 released and went, it was great for the ones who really enjoyed the first one but most just skipped the game  400.000 players on TA for Outer Worlds 1 compared to 88K for Outer Worlds 2.
South of midnight had barely any expectations and did like expected.
Gears of war reloaded was a rerelease
Indiana Jones exp is like a 5 hour experience that even people called in this thread 'something you should get on a sale it is not worth full price'

And yes Oblivion Remastered was the second best selling game from Xbox that isn't made by them and saw the most love from gamers even when it still had many issues.

The 30th anniversary of crash this year so I'm hopeful for a game announcement.

Crash and Fallout both rumoured to be getting Fortnite content soon.

I've seen rumours that Iron Galaxy are doing something Crash related. Doubt they'd be making a game by themselves, but hell I'd take a CTR port to PC and PS5/XBS/SW2.

I mean, all your point is about what "the community" or "people" are saying... Not about the game itself and why it is actually bad, and the same can be said about most games out there, but some exceptions. The gaming community is one of the most toxic out there, and you seem to be basically basing all your opinions on what YouTubers (or call it the community if you want) in a market dominated by Sony are saying; I can tell you that the only way for the "community" to be happy with Microsoft would be for Microsoft to announce the resurection of jesus or something like that.

Microsoft delivered the games; you may not like them, but they definitely did, and 2026 does not seem to be different.