I think if CMA phase 2 does approve it (I don't think Ryuu96 doesnt think it would?) If CMA Phase 2 does approve it then a domino effect of approvals start happening?

Australia and New Zealand are almost certainly waiting on UK to make a decision.

China is reportedly waiting on EU's decision as they want to align themselves politically with EU.

Once one of the top 4 approve it (UK, EU, China or US) it will almost certainly have a domino effect on smaller markets.

Which is why Microsoft is trying to get early approval in EU, in hope it will pressure UK (similar markets).

We're still only 4/17 (or 18) and UK/EU/US/China are the key ones.

Saudi Arabia/United Arab Emirates approved together (similar market).

hugs.

4 AAA hats (FF7R Part 2, FF16, Silent Hill 2 Remake, and Forspoken), 1 AA hat (Stellar Blade), and 1 AAA multiplat that Sony hatted exclusive content for (Hogwarts Legacy). This is what Xbox is up against. Meanwhile the regulators are more concerned about Xbox acquiring Activision-Blizzard and guaranteeing CoD on PS, Steam, and Nintendo for 10 years (more than 10 years in Playstation's case as those 10 are in addition to their current CoD contract which has one more game on it in 2024), than they are with preventing the market leader using deals like the above hats to weaken any potential growth by their closest competitor.

And before someone responds and says "Xbox has hat deals in 2023 as well", you are right, they do. But those deals are not all that comparable to what Sony has in 2023. Their biggest hat deal is STALKER 2 which they have a measly 3 months of exclusivity on, and they have a currently unknown length deal on Ark 2 (which I would call AA, not AAA, as they only have 85 developers at Studio Wildcard), all of their other hat deals for 2023 are indie/single A tier like Slime Rancher 2 and Replaced. Meanwhile Sony has 1 year on FF16 and Silent Hill 2 Remake, 2 years on Forspoken, and as far as I can tell, lifetime on FF7R2 (first game is still missing on Xbox after 2 and a half years when it was originally stated to be a 1 year deal, which suggests Sony paid to extend the deal into a lifetime exclusive) and lifetime on Stellar Blade. You just can't compare Xbox's hats to Sony's here. Besides, as the market leader, Sony's hat deals have more impact at reducing Xbox's ability to catch up to them than Xbox's hat deals would have at catching up to them, as people are more likely to stick with the market leader even if both of their hat deals were equivalent to one another. 

Well, you see, because Xbox is tied to Microsoft, that automatically means anything they do is worse than anything Sony does.

Do we know these companies aren't going to both Sony and Microsoft and telling them whoever gives us more will get the timed exclusive rights to our next game?  These companies are going to take the best deal, they aren't going to make a game exclusive for money if they haven't explored every opportunity available to them.

All we know is that Phil claimed he would stop going for the really big AAA timed hat deals like Sony goes for after he received intense backlash over his Rise of the Tomb Raider 1 year timed hat deal in 2015, and that since Phil made that promise to stop going for really big AAA hat deal, Xbox hasn't hatted a single game from a truly big AAA series. We can't say for certain if Xbox is still making offers on really big AAA hat deals behind the scenes, but are being outbid on them by Sony, or if Phil really is keeping his promise. Only Xbox executives and the game publishers know the truth there, and they will never talk about it if it is happening, due to non-disclosure agreements. 

Given the absence of evidence of Xbox going around making big timed hat offers behind the scenes, I think it is only fair to believe Phil's claim that he has stopped going for them. 

I would lean on Phil keeping his promise. Xbox could outbid anyone if they wanted to. Not to mention the consistency of PlayStation AAA third party hatted games ever since Xbox tried doing the same.

Nintendo gets Monster Hunter Rise on almost 2 years of console exclusivity for only $6 million with little backlash. Microsoft pays $100 million for Shadow of the Tomb Raider for a Tabasco drenched dick full of criticism. So there’s a definite double standard when it comes to Xbox, but Sony by a mile leads in that department. 

If the ActiBlizz deal falls through, I wouldn’t be surprised if Xbox starts hatting games with a fury lol. “We can play that game too Sony” 

Xbox exclusivity never has lasted that long in recent memory. Stalker 2, Tunic, Rise of the Tomb Raider. Still waiting on FF 7 on xbox

Oh and FF 16 exclusivity ends 12/31/2023 I believe. Then it can go to Epic.