Yeah, I'm assuming he was talking about 2nd party games, those published by Xbox Game Studio Publishing. Though if they have any besides the Kojima Cloud one coming, hard to say. We recently learned they have more than 12 (so at least 13) XGSP games in development, and details about like 8 or 9 of those 13 or more games have previously leaked out.

1. Contraband
2. Towerborne
3. Ara: History Untold
4. Flight Simulator 2024
5. Project Suerte (Certain Affinity Monster Hunter like game)
6. Project Shaolin (Brass Lion kung-fu Wu Tang Clan RPG)
7. Something with Tencent Subsidiary TiMi
8. Kojima Cloud game
9. Project Dragon (IO Interactive Fantasy RPG, though this may no longer be Xbox 2nd party, it may have since became the multiplatform Project Fantasy)
10. Unknown
11. Unknown
12. Unknown
13. Unknown

Hopefully there is at least one other JP game among the remaining 4+ unknown games.

Interesting. I have no idea what this game might be. On the revenue expectations that leaked out, they are expecting this unknown licensed game to make less money than Indiana Jones. Less revenue than Indiana Jones pretty much instantly rules out Star Wars or Marvel, unless the game is in a niche genre that won't sell as well, such as an RTS or Star Wars space combat simulator like the one that EA released, Star Wars Squadrons. 

$225m in the release year compared to $230m for Indiana Jones.

Even more baffling is trying to figure out which Bethesda studio could be developing this unknown licensed IP game. A few possibilities there:

• Secondary id team from the one making Doom Year Zero (id is big enough to have 2 teams, though they may need to co-develop with a 2nd studio on one of the games, like they did when they co-developed Rage 2 with Avalanche)
• Roundhouse, the small Wisconsin studio made up of former original Prey devs
• A smaller team at Tango that was planned to make it while Ghostwire 2 was in development, in much the same way that Ghostwire 1 and HiFi Rush were in development at the same time at Tango
• A 3rd team at Zenimax Online Studios (separate from the ESO DLC and Kestrel teams)
• Arkane Lyon (only if Arkane Austin is making Dishonored 3 instead of Arkane Lyon)

I think we can rule out BGS (between Starfield DLC and TES 6 they will just be too busy), MachineGames (they are busy with Indy and Project Platinum), and Arkane Austin (not a large enough time gap between Redfall and when they had planned to release the licensed IP game on the above timeline, just 3 years between them, modern AAA's take at least 4 years to make)

Don't understand why Project Dragon's name was changed to Project Fantasy and why Xbox wasn't announced when the hiring was announced, not only because it's an easy PR beat for Xbox but also it would help with hiring if you're going to start hiring now. So I think there's a good chance it is an independent project now.

Suerte is a weird one too, Certain Affinity is assisting on Halo Infinite, also working on Halo: Tatanka which sounds like a relatively large project and also pitching to publishers for another AAA original IP and on top of that, they're apparently working on Project Suerte, another AAA IP? Seems a bit much for their size.

Anyway I've no doubt they have some Japanese projects in development through XGSP, in the past couple years they've hired a Senior Producer in Tokyo for XGSP, an Executive Producer in Tokyo for XGSP, a Director/Partnerships in Japan for GEO. None of these people would work for Tango so unless the belief is that Xbox hired multiple people in Japan (EPs for the first time since the X360 era) just to work on a single game (Kojima's title) then it's fairly obvious they have things cooking.

They haven't had EPs in Japan specifically for years, I believe I heard since the 360 era, if they were just for Kojima then they would have use some American dude inside of XGSP. There is a clear effort happening to expand their Japanese team and I believe that is what Phil is talking about in his response, not just Tango or Kojima (already announced).

Not a lack of effort like some claim, it simply is a recent development.

I just realised he's specifically calling it "Xbox Game Studios Japan" too.

Like c'mon, these dudes at Xbox Game Studios Japan working on one game (Kojima's) then going to shut up shop? Lmao.

Nah it's clear things are coming and in development.

Yeah, they are definitely putting more effort into Japan recently. I'd be surprised if the only JP 2nd party they have cooking right now is the Kojima cloud one, especially since we know for a fact that there are JP devs out there who have gone on record to say that they'd be open to working on Xbox exclusives again, such as Tomonobu Itagaki and Platinum Games (on a revival of Scalebound).

I'd hate if ID Software, Tango or Arkane were working on licensed IPs, Lol.

Honestly though saying that Bethesda is working on a Disney IP is a weak "rumour" I wouldn't even need to be an insider to say that and have an 80% chance of being right with the current climate, Disney has all their IP along with LucasArts and Marvel, Lol. The vast majority of licensed IPs lately have been Disney IP and nobody is allowed to do Warner IP aside from WBIE.

More than likely is a Disney IP.

Yeah, would be a shame to see any of them on a licensed game, but it is definitely possible, it's pretty clear that Zenimax made both this unknown licensed deal and the Indiana Jones one at the same time around 2019, when they were struggling financially somewhat in those final years before Xbox acquired them. They'd be looking at ways to turn their less successful studios into more successful studios, so I could see them possibly making the licensed deal for Arkane, since their last few games leading up to 2019 had each performed under Zenimax expectations.

Yeah, it's probably a Disney game. Though there are a few other licensed IP options besides Disney, such as a LOTR game. Saul Zaentz company was licensing it out to companies randomly in the years leading up to their sale to Embracer group, which is where the random Gollum and Moria games came from. In fact, there was even an unaccounted for LOTR game in the GeForce Now leak, called Lord of the Rings: Fight for Middle Earth as I recall. Some people thought it would be a sequel to the RTS games Battle for Middle-Earth 1 and 2, but the GeForce Now leak was 2 years ago and that game still hasn't been announced.

If it is a Disney IP though, I'd love to know which, what could it be that Bethesda was expecting to make slightly less money than Indiana Jones? Pirates of the Carribean perhaps? 

There was some Linkedin Sleuths on ResetEra who believe that XGSP is working with Unseen Inc, founded by Ikumi Nakamura.

We'll see! But yeah they aren't hiring all these people just for Kojima, Lol.

That would make sense for her to work with Xbox since she already had that connection with them from being a Tango dev.