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I don’t think there are currently any other companies out there that have the means and the will to purchase ABK, for a variety of reasons: 

1. He asking price would probably have to go up substantially to justify being stuck in another 18 months of regulatory limbo. Think instead of $70 billion more like $100-$110, which is basically the entire market cap of Sony. 

2. There are basically only 3 companies on earth that could make that purchase, Apple, Amazon, and Google. All 3 of these would face the same or more regulatory scrutiny that Microsoft did if they attempted this purchase. 

3. You would have to convince the thousands of shareholders all over again to keep the company in regulatory limbo for another 18 months

its simply not a realistic outcome 

The 3 companies that come to mind are Apple, Google and some Saudi interest.  The reason why either would consider getting ABK is simple.  They all are looking to expand more into gaming.  Its been rumored that Apple is seeking some type of console entry.  Google is also looking to get into gaming and we already seen Saudi interest in the market.

My prediction is that gaming will all come together very soon.  Meaning that all games on all platforms will be playable on all devices.  Subscription services will dominate this space and thus companies positioning now will be ahead of the game.  MS is going full steam ahead, Sony is taking their time and Nintendo I am not even sure cares as they may just carve out their own space.  That leave the other players trying to get into the market like Apple, Google, Netflix, Amazon, Tencent you name it.

The only players that will be able to truly compete have big money.  MS has shot the first couple of broadsides with Bethesda and ABK, I only expect to see more shots fired in the future.

As for regulator scrutiny, I doubt it.  MS is already in the market and this is a vertical merger so Apple or Google would have no problem as they do not have the same situation as MS.

As for the shareholders, that is another situation since all their shares has voting rights so in that respect is where the challenge would be.



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aTokenYeti said:

https://vxtwitter.com/lulumeservey/status/1681644640368304129?s=20


This discussion is all moot now, Microsoft and ABK have reached a deadline extension agreement

Man this sucks, I was hoping they would draw it out a few more days so I could post more possible outcomes where ABK leaves the deal.



Extended, I Am Shocked /s.

$3bn was nothing compared to the $20bn they would have lost in market valuation.

Termination fee is now $4.5bn (that's fine, Microsoft ain't paying that cause the deal is going through).

Deal price is now effectively $96 a share (up from $95 a share), a $1 dividend + $95 a share original price.

With that I think it's safe to say that Microsoft had the advantage in negotiations.

Obviously, no company was willing to outbid the already high offer.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 19 July 2023

aTokenYeti said:

Deadline has been extended to October 18th, but I highly doubt it takes that long. This also quashed any speculation that Bobby Kotick was trying to scuttle the deal to keep control of ABK. He very clearly wants his payday

October 18 the same 3 months ABK needed to bring shareholders to vote to allow the deal. Coincidence? 🤔

looks like I may have hit the mark and X was October 18

EpicRandy said:

Yes, I believe it's in the way they could propose the extension, ABK can say they will still abide by the deal up to X after that they would do another vote to either formally extend the deal or leave it while preparing and extended version in the mean time to submit to a vote in case they do have to go to that extent. 

This should be within Kottick's power because he also allows shareholders to voice displeasure by announcing their plans. This would not result in a material change to the deals though, only a set timeline to which they might or quit.

[...]

Yeah, that's right, I have to give myself a flower because you all here, ungrateful brats, don't do it. JK I like you all 😛



@Imaginedvl it ain't much but congrats on the $1 extra



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Each of Parent and Merger Sub hereby unconditionally and irrevocably waives the forbearance covenant set forth in Section 5.2(e)(B) of the Merger Agreement solely to permit the Company to declare and pay one regular cash dividend for fiscal year 2023 on Company Common Stock in an amount per share of Company Common Stock not in excess of $0.99, for the avoidance of doubt, prior to and not contingent on the Closing.

Activision Blizzard 8K Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement | ATVI 19 Jul 23 | 10.1 (capedge.com)

Basically a "sorry for the trouble" to shareholders, Lol.



The breakup fee not increasing until August 29th.

So Microsoft basically expects the deal to be done before then.



EpicRandy said:
aTokenYeti said:

Deadline has been extended to October 18th, but I highly doubt it takes that long. This also quashed any speculation that Bobby Kotick was trying to scuttle the deal to keep control of ABK. He very clearly wants his payday

October 18 the same 3 months ABK needed to bring shareholders to vote to allow the deal. Coincidence? 🤔

looks like I may have hit the mark and X was October 18

EpicRandy said:

Yes, I believe it's in the way they could propose the extension, ABK can say they will still abide by the deal up to X after that they would do another vote to either formally extend the deal or leave it while preparing and extended version in the mean time to submit to a vote in case they do have to go to that extent. 

This should be within Kottick's power because he also allows shareholders to voice displeasure by announcing their plans. This would not result in a material change to the deals though, only a set timeline to which they might or quit.

[...]

Yeah, that's right, I have to give myself a flower because you all here, ungrateful brats, don't do it. JK I like you all 😛

I don't think they'll do a shareholder vote, that $1 dividend is basically an apology for the extension.

October would be the worst case scenario, it looks like Microsoft is aiming to wrap it up before August 29th, any breakup fee date is a "delay"