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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Bofferbrauer2 said:
shavenferret said:

"Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.

1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%"

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1858300100117758121

Yeah, Russia's economy is overheating, and there's pretty little they can do against it short of ending the war:

Basically, real inflation is close to 30% already, and the full employment means that wages will continue to rise fast, especially in anything military-related. But this will fuel the inflation further and further.

However, while I agree with February 1917, I disagree with the country. Both Russia's economy and war effort are very comparable to Germanys during WW1. Germany also went through significant inflation during the war, but it's only afterwards where all the affter-effects started to bite and send the country onto the course of a hyperinflation. I see the Rouble soon being worth rubble at this rate.

The best thing for the Russians to do is curb inflation, but if that happens it won't be an easy choice, because the economy will have to slow drastically.  They will have a horrible case of stagflation in other words where both slowdowns and inflation occur.  

They are doing this to themselves.  It's not just the oil prices or inability to trade with the rest of the world.  

Also, the lack of labor and military economy are making this worse.  

I was going to put some $$$ into russian stocks last year, in the hope that they would recover after the war was over.  But i'm glad that i didn't do this, because the trade issues will be in place for a while.  



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shavenferret said:

"Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.

1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%"

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1858300100117758121

Unfortunately, unlike in 1917, Putin has a bunch of friends in Washington who will prop up his regime instead of letting it fail, which they should let it fail.



SanAndreasX said:
shavenferret said:

"Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.

1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%"

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1858300100117758121

Unfortunately, unlike in 1917, Putin has a bunch of friends in Washington who will prop up his regime instead of letting it fail, which they should let it fail.

Yeah.......

But if it fails, you know that anyone that grabs power will be just as ruthless and powerful, and ultimately evil as Putin.  It may be better to let the russians elect a new leader or at least follow a more orderly course of action.   



a mural in Eastern Europe.  This mural speaks of the mess that the good people of America have created, and it's our fault. 

Last edited by shavenferret - on 21 November 2024

Russia lobs missiles at Ukraine cities, hospitals, schools, etc.

Media = 😴

Ukraine lobs a missile at Russian military in Russia.

Media = Omg is this escalation?! Russia is threatening WW3! We're all going to die!

===

Love how the media plays into Russia's hand every single time.

Now we have Russia lobbing a dummy ICBM (without a warhead) at Ukraine, ICBM's are known for being very inaccurate and without a warhead, not much more powerful than a regular missile, so it was entirely just for show, it didn't cause significant damage, but it was Russia saying "We can fire a nuclear capable missile, we didn't this time, but we can, I promise" it was all for show, zero military value and a huge cost, but of course, that's enough for people to start pissing their pants and buy into Russia's empty threats.

This should simply cause Europe to double down in support, fuck Russia's pathetic display of a threat.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 21 November 2024

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Ryuu96 said:

Russia lobs missiles at Ukraine cities, hospitals, schools, etc.

Media = 😴

Ukraine lobs a missile at Russian military in Russia.

Media = Omg is this escalation?! Russia is threatening WW3! We're all going to die!

There's a Guardian columnist called Simon Jenkins who epitomises this sentiment.



SecondWar said:
Ryuu96 said:

Russia lobs missiles at Ukraine cities, hospitals, schools, etc.

Media = 😴

Ukraine lobs a missile at Russian military in Russia.

Media = Omg is this escalation?! Russia is threatening WW3! We're all going to die!

There's a Guardian columnist called Simon Jenkins who epitomises this sentiment.

It's an odd statement though.  It's just like when we were in grade school and the big kid picks on the little kid.  But there's a plot twist to the usual story, and the small kid has some moves and opens up a can of whupass on the bully.  

Usually nobody has any sympathy for the bully.  

But why is there sympathy for Russia?  I mean, everybody hates them right now?  



shavenferret said:
SecondWar said:

There's a Guardian columnist called Simon Jenkins who epitomises this sentiment.

It's an odd statement though.  It's just like when we were in grade school and the big kid picks on the little kid.  But there's a plot twist to the usual story, and the small kid has some moves and opens up a can of whupass on the bully.  

Usually nobody has any sympathy for the bully.  

But why is there sympathy for Russia?  I mean, everybody hates them right now?  

It's not sympathy for Russia, it's all about money in the end.

Yourself included... "I was going to put some $$$ into russian stocks last year, in the hope that they would recover after the war was over. But i'm glad that i didn't do this, because the trade issues will be in place for a while."

Plus I bet the West is more afraid of Russia collapsing rather than WW3. (Putin is stupid, but not that stupid) WW3 fearmongering is the excuse, yet unlikely to happen. Economic fallout of Russia collapsing is a lot more likely to happen. And the last thing Europe wants is Russian refugees...



I did a search on Putin's health earlier since he appears sickly, has tremors and cancer has been speculated as well as possible parkinson's.  There's an old saying about the chance that rumors are true, which says that where there is smoke there is fire.  But there is a hell of a lot of smoke here, folks.  

Anyway, i'm reading from different sources that he hasn't been seen in public for 13 days.  

This is most likely from a sickness or medical treatment or that kind of thing.  It could also be him hiding from Ukrainian missles but that is a remote possibility and he'd make a statement to that effect anyway.  

The Mint suggests that he is undergoing treatment

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/vladimir-putin-sick-russian-president-s-prolonged-absence-from-public-events-raises-question-about-health-11732185841480.html

Several sources mentioned an episode of intense scratching.  It could be botox, or it could possibly be parkinson's symptoms out of control

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13974327/Putin-suffers-mystery-ITCHING-Kremlin.html

Rumors about a potential cardiac arrest..... and when he dissapears on everybody, the rumors will fly.  If he was healthy though, he'd show his face on tv since the rumors can cause image problems

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/did-putin-suffer-a-cardiac-arrest-at-his-private-moscow-apartment-rumors-about-his-health-sweep-across-russia/articleshow/114354475.cms?from=mdr

Last edited by shavenferret - on 21 November 2024

shavenferret said:
SecondWar said:

There's a Guardian columnist called Simon Jenkins who epitomises this sentiment.

It's an odd statement though.  It's just like when we were in grade school and the big kid picks on the little kid.  But there's a plot twist to the usual story, and the small kid has some moves and opens up a can of whupass on the bully.  

Usually nobody has any sympathy for the bully.  

But why is there sympathy for Russia?  I mean, everybody hates them right now?  

It's actually the opposite, at least in the schools I went to. The bully gets away with being a bully. When the small kid decides to get some payback in, the same school administrators who looked the other way, freak out, and the victim is the one who gets punished.

So this checks out.