Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Ryuu96

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Ryuu96 on 18 September 2024

To grasp how much munitions just went up in smoke about 18 days worth of munitions for Task Group North blown up overnight.

Using the math from @Mattl8241 in his Russian Logistics Thread this single depot if at full capacity with 22,080 tons of munitions could supply Task Group…
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) September 18, 2024

If I was at Toropets South Ammunition Depot at Oktyabrskii I would be shitting my pants knowing I'm next. This depot is located IVO
56.359093,31.649825

Toropets South Ammunition Depot has a total of 71 buildings
57 proteced
14 unprotected

This depot if fully stocked likely… pic.twitter.com/MENq91Ibw2
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) September 18, 2024

Slow flying long-range drones equipped with small high explosive/fragmentation warheads (likely
These weapon systems are by no means penetration-optimized. https://t.co/m2fpvAzLhr
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) September 18, 2024

"Footage of the massive fire, which was accompanied by heavy smoke and detonation, was posted online. According to the Russian media, the attacked warehouse contained, among other things, 122mm Grad rockets and 82mm artillery mines.

The head of the Ukrainian National Security…
— AvScanNZ 🇳🇿 (@NZ_Trav) September 18, 2024

8/ Russian blogger Roman Alekhin comments with dismay: "I wouldn't be surprised if only the sauna and cafe survived the explosion. But what kind of world-class storage facility is this if it was penetrated by a UAV, or rather even its debris?"
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) September 18, 2024

Ryuu96

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Ryuu96 on 18 September 2024

This is a pretty insane hit, the amount of munitions stored and the size of the explosion, it was meant to be heavily protected, thousands of ammunition used to kill Ukrainian civilians and soldiers now a pile of ash.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 18 September 2024

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Ryuu96 on 18 September 2024

It really sounds like a jet engine - maybe Palianytsia? https://t.co/mO6yjRmyoA
— Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) September 18, 2024

/7. Looks like Toropets ammunition depot was also targeted by something with a jet engine. https://t.co/op3AsuT4q7 pic.twitter.com/JnUsmXS2U6
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2024

/5. Flyby of one of the Ukrainian drones before the attack on Toropets. pic.twitter.com/Yhk9IhEXch
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2024

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Ryuu96 on 18 September 2024

This suggests that the attack on the Toropets ammo depot involved at least one experimental jet-propelled drone or the Palianytsia missile-drone. https://t.co/SUw1vhnK5Z
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 18, 2024

First outing for the Palianytsia, Ukraine’s domestically produced cruise missile? If so, it has already proved… effective! https://t.co/ATpGtQbrnj
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 18, 2024

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Ryuu96 on 18 September 2024

It's definitely a jet engine, it sounds exactly the same.

/7. Looks like Toropets ammunition depot was also targeted by something with a jet engine. https://t.co/op3AsuT4q7 pic.twitter.com/JnUsmXS2U6
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2024

Does seem like Palianytsia just had an incredible debut.

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crissindahouse on 18 September 2024

Comparing that with Germany's biggest ammunition depot and yes, that is a pretty big depot Ukraine hit there. Sure, we in Germany don't have much ammunition at all (lol) but that was definitely one of Ukraine's most important strikes ever even if some in the single bunkers may have survived this.

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shavenferret on 18 September 2024

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Russia is burning through it's artillery pieces:

Of note is that Russia pulled it's newest and biggest guns into service first, meaning most of what's still in reserve are D-1 and D-20, old designs from the 1940's that ain't very performant compared to more modern systems like the 2A36 and 2A65 from the 70's and 80's that Russia employed en masse but is running out of now. And due to their age, they are probably in much worse shape than the newer guns which had less time to rust.

Running out, or even running low on artillery is going to be very very bad since they emphasize artillery so much. The Russians haven't learned to fight any other way and they'll probably give up once their arty systems run low and losses accumulate even faster.

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shavenferret on 18 September 2024

Ryuu96 said:

Without exaggeration, this is a very significant achievement. Weâ€™re likely looking at the loss of thousands of tons of explosive materials, shells, and rockets. In events of this magnitude, replacement can't be quick. I rarely comment on similar events, but definitely not today https://t.co/dy0M6yLHyh
â€” Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2024

Part of this relates to analysts constantly emphasizing the need to integrate these types of deep strikes into a broader "campaign" effort.

But a destroyed ammunition depot is a destroyed ammunition depot, period. There will be direct benefits to it either way. https://t.co/kNXEBSEoQL
â€” Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) September 18, 2024

A weird aspect of debate about whether or not the US and EU states will allow Ukrainians to use Western weapons for deep strike operations is the assumption that Kyiv would just sit and wait for debate in Brussels or DC to play out rather than start developing its own options https://t.co/9Z1UulCVuT
â€” Alexander Clarkson î¨€ (@APHClarkson) September 18, 2024

It may not have made major headlines, but it has certainly rattled Russian troops. The commander of the assault unit of the 110th Brigade, known by his nickname "Beliy," was arrested. The terrorist is regarded as a highly competent and successful commander, with notableâ€¦ pic.twitter.com/OZAxjIUDG2
â€” WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) September 18, 2024

The Investigative Committee of Armenia stated that an "attempt to usurp power through a coup" had been prevented in the country

The security agency claims that members of the group of conspirators traveled to Rostov-on-Don, where they allegedly underwent training at the baseâ€¦ pic.twitter.com/XHAxhC9qYt
â€” NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 18, 2024

CSTO creates threats for Armeniaâ€™s existence and statehood, says PM Pashinyan - ARMENPRESS Armenian News Agency

It's quite possible that the U.S. military helped Ukraine develop its own missle, in order to teach it to fish. So that more important things such as Patriots could be given.

Bravo, Ukraine.

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shavenferret on 18 September 2024

The HQ of Wildberries, located in Moscow was raided by a group of armed thugs in an assasination attempt. Russia looks like it is fracturing in the economic downturn that the nation is experiencing.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/09/18/gunfire-breaks-out-in-moscow-as-wildberries-ceo-claims-husband-led-raid-attempt-on-company-s-central-office

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shavenferret on 18 September 2024

JD Vance says US could drop support for NATO if Europe tries to regulate Elon Musk’s platforms. Trump and Vance are very rational gentlemen. I don't see how anybody could trust them to make decisions on international relations.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-elon-musk-x-twitter-donald-trump-b2614525.html

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