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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Ryuu96 on 21 September 2023


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RolStoppable on 21 September 2023
Cobretti2 said:

So where would the grain normally go if they could use the black sea? Assuming it would end up in Europe, what does it matter if by land or sea? They worried a black market will happen in those other countries?

The vast majority of Ukraine's grain goes to other continents. Ukraine is one of the biggest producers of grain on the planet and they can do it at very low costs. So a blockade in the Black Sea creates two huge issues:

1. It's immensely difficult to transport such high volumes of grain via land routes to their intended destinations.

2. Ukrainian grain is so cheap that it undercuts the prices of farmers in all EU countries, even the ones in the east who have the lowest costs for living. All the grain that gets stuck somewhere on the land routes poses a risk of being sold in the countries it is currently stuck in, therefore creating an existential threat for the local farmers.

This also means that Russia is weaponizing their Black Sea blockade in two ways:

1. They are harming the EU's unity, because the member states in the east and their peoples feel the pressure.

2. The widespread hunger due to insufficient food resources in many African countries gets amplified.

So in turn Russia demands that many sanctions get lifted, otherwise they won't stop their blockade. And since the West is so weak that it potentially allows itself to get blackmailed by a much smaller force than they are, it might just work.

Kasparow put it best: Escalation from the Russian side in this war tends to happen everytime the West takes their foot of the gas pedal. This observation goes against the conventional wisdom of the West, but it's the reality. The self-intimidation of the West keeps fueling this war; the constant fear to turn this into a World War III is what actually makes such a war more likely to happen, because the dictators of this world will feel encouraged by all the cowardice of the West.

Russia will take whatever the West allows, one piece at a time.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Ryuu96 on 21 September 2023

Weak. Cowardly. Pathetic.

No Taurus then either.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 21 September 2023

RolStoppable on 21 September 2023

The USA looks like Germany now. Nobody respects Germany.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Cobretti2 on 21 September 2023
RolStoppable said:
Cobretti2 said:

So where would the grain normally go if they could use the black sea? Assuming it would end up in Europe, what does it matter if by land or sea? They worried a black market will happen in those other countries?

The vast majority of Ukraine's grain goes to other continents. Ukraine is one of the biggest producers of grain on the planet and they can do it at very low costs. So a blockade in the Black Sea creates two huge issues:

1. It's immensely difficult to transport such high volumes of grain via land routes to their intended destinations.

2. Ukrainian grain is so cheap that it undercuts the prices of farmers in all EU countries, even the ones in the east who have the lowest costs for living. All the grain that gets stuck somewhere on the land routes poses a risk of being sold in the countries it is currently stuck in, therefore creating an existential threat for the local farmers.

This also means that Russia is weaponizing their Black Sea blockade in two ways:

1. They are harming the EU's unity, because the member states in the east and their peoples feel the pressure.

2. The widespread hunger due to insufficient food resources in many African countries gets amplified.

So in turn Russia demands that many sanctions get lifted, otherwise they won't stop their blockade. And since the West is so weak that it potentially allows itself to get blackmailed by a much smaller force than they are, it might just work.

Kasparow put it best: Escalation from the Russian side in this war tends to happen everytime the West takes their foot of the gas pedal. This observation goes against the conventional wisdom of the West, but it's the reality. The self-intimidation of the West keeps fueling this war; the constant fear to turn this into a World War III is what actually makes such a war more likely to happen, because the dictators of this world will feel encouraged by all the cowardice of the West.

Russia will take whatever the West allows, one piece at a time.

Ah so it's destined for Africa mainly, and concerned it will get stuck in Europe and sold locally cheap.

Agree about the west, I mean shit surely they could at minimum provide them some sort of internet technology at least that Musk cannot disconnect, or just arrest Musk so he can't do it to let Ukraine wipe out the fleet with their own water drones that they been using if they so worried about long range missiles getting the job done, or themselves doing it.



 

 

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Ryuu96 on 22 September 2023



Ryuu96 on 22 September 2023

Morawiecki's Statement About Arms Was a Surprise for Polish Foreign Ministry | Ukrainska Pravda

Looks like Poland's PM spoke out of turn.

The President is saying otherwise.



Ryuu96 on 22 September 2023



Ryuu96 on 22 September 2023



Ryuu96 on 22 September 2023

Whacking those air defences seems to be working because Crimea is getting hit on a regular basis lately.