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Forums - Politics - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Farsala said:

It seems that encirclement a few days back is coming back to bite Ukraine. Now they are at risk of encirclement, so they will probably give it up. Also Chasiv Yar was taken, so now Russia can focus on Sloviansk or Kramatorsk. Ukraine seems to be getting more and more quality weapons, but the lack of men on the field is making things difficult.

Source? Couldn't find anything about that.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

It seems that encirclement a few days back is coming back to bite Ukraine. Now they are at risk of encirclement, so they will probably give it up. Also Chasiv Yar was taken, so now Russia can focus on Sloviansk or Kramatorsk. Ukraine seems to be getting more and more quality weapons, but the lack of men on the field is making things difficult.

Source? Couldn't find anything about that.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/09/30/chaotic-pocket/

The situation is changing every day though.



38% of russia's refinery capacity has been knocked out

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraines-drone-blitz-plunges-russia-into-worst-ever-fuel-crisis-knock-out-38-of-refining-capacity-12098



French military boards Russia-linked oil tanker suspected of launching drones
Tanker, named on list of ‘shadow fleet’ vessels, may have been launchpad for drones that closed Denmark airports

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/01/france-oil-tanker-russia-drone-denmark

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Russia gets slapped in the d!ck by France. The whole point of launching drones from planes and Ukraine into neighboring countries is to discourage them from sending anti-aircraft munitions/equipment to Ukraine in the first place. Russian diplomacy at its finest.

However, they may have a problem with that. So, France boarded the oil tanker, looked for drones as well as military personnel aboard the ship. They'll probably send the ship to harbor and send it to the graveyard for a few years. Putin's ghost Fleet = -1 today





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Two related articles......


1. Captain of oil tanker linked to Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ to face trial in France
Vladimir Putin denounces seizing of the vessel as an act of piracy and warned it could provoke confrontation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/03/captain-of-oil-tanker-linked-to-russia-shadow-fleet-to-face-trial-in-france

2. France's Macron says detention of 'shadow' tanker signals new plan to pressure Russia

https://www.reuters.com/world/two-crew-members-detained-russian-tanker-have-been-arrested-french-pm-says-2025-10-02/



BFR said:

To add some additional context:

Imported gazoline cost about 50% more than what the usual price is in Russia. This means that either the gas prices rise in Russia (which will stoke inflation again) or Russia needs to subvention the imports, which could take a significant portion of their budget, meaning less money for the military.

And if they were to import less than what they got before from their refineries or if the price rises too much for ordinary Russians, there's a high risk it could lead to a recession.

Either way, this puts the Kremlin into a bad spot.



In a Positive twist, Ukraine will start selling millions of Drones to the USA and use the profits for the war. 






Ukraine Strikes Russian Missile Corvette 1,000 km Inside Homeland in Bold Lake Assault


https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraine-strikes-russian-missile-corvette-1000-km-inside-homeland-in-bold-lake-assault-12194