Sucks that Erdogan needs to be bribed but oh well. At least they are really coming through in Ukraine.

It looks like the fight over Mariupol steel plant is over as fighter are now surrendering to Russia.
This conclusion was inevitable, those fighter are true heroes and are probably one major reason why the Donbass region have not fallen to Russia and hopefully never will.
I hope Russia will get some decency/humanity for once and respect rules regarding prisoner of war.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8841178/mariupol-surrender-ukraine-russia-war/

EpicRandy said: It looks like the fight over Mariupol steel plant is over as fighter are now surrendering to Russia. This conclusion was inevitable, those fighter are true heroes and are probably one major reason why the Donbass region have not fallen to Russia and hopefully never will. I hope Russia will get some decency/humanity for once and respect rules regarding prisoner of war. https://globalnews.ca/news/8841178/mariupol-surrender-ukraine-russia-war/

What do you think?

To answer your question, there was news today that Russia is to declare the Azov Battalion a terrorist organisation and look into charging them with war crimes. I know Azov has some shady roots, but in the context of this war, that description is more benefitting of the Wagner Group.

Please, don't stop posting Ryu. This thread is my primary source of information regarding this conflict xD

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of May 23, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/V8NCfPorRJ

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 23, 2022

Compared to last week.
+1500 Troops
+4 Planes
+65 Tanks
+5 Helicopters
+192 Personnel carriers (APV)
+27 Artillery
+6 MLRS
+4 Anti-aircraft
+49 UAV
+1 Special equipment
+105 Vehicles/fuel tanks (now combined)
+13 Cruise missiles

Key takeaways:
This week numbers are mostly down from last week which was itself down compared to the previous one, this is sure to be a trend I don't like. However, this seems to be the result of Russia scaling down their push attempts.

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 24 May 2022

Ryuu96 said: Russia has said that it will end its blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports only if the West agrees to lift sanctions https://t.co/pgMFN9PDRl — The Times (@theTimes) May 25, 2022

Which basically translates as ‘allow us to subjugate Ukraine and we’ll start exporting their crops as out own’.

No Russia, you’re the aggressor here, not the victim. The sanctions are due to your unprovoked invasion. Withdraw from Ukraine and then we can talk about the gradually relaxation of sanctions.

Ryuu96 said: Some very good news if true. News: The Biden admin is preparing to send Ukraine advanced, long-range rocket systems—known as MLRS and HIMARS—that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say. Approval could be announced as soon as next week. https://t.co/wma6skIx8X — Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) May 26, 2022 Poland to acquire 500 M142 HIMARS is... wow! That's a 150% increase over Poland's current rocket artillery number... and more than the US fields now. I wonder if some of these systems are destined for another country in desperate need of HIMARS systems... https://t.co/dfE81k4Ohu — Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) May 26, 2022

My question with that is how effective will they ultimately prove to be. The Howitzers were touted as a potential game changer for Ukraine but a week or so on from them being delivered and news about them has been eerily silent. That suggests ones pf two things - that Russia did indeed take out a good number of them when they claimed to hit an arms depot outside Kyiv a few days back or they haven’t been able to have much impact in the field.

Others claims they may not yet have made it to the frontline, which seems odd given the prominence they had in the media.

Ryuu96 said: Bare in mind that Ukraine said their major counter attack won't start until mid-June at the earliest

Not going to happen. Some realism is needed here. The Ukraine is not in a position to start counterattacking on an organised scale.

Putin has basically made a fundamental military mistake, historically the same one General Santa Anna made when he wanted to squash the Texas revolution. Instead of bypassing the Alamo, leaving only a small occupying force there, he squandered valuable time assembling all his troops around an unimportant church for an unimportant victory. Which gave Housten all the time he needed to organise.

Same with that steel thing. Russians squandered valuable time at an unimportant steel factory for an unimportanrt victory instead of simply bypassing it. Unfortunately for the Ukranians, the time gained was not long enough to organise (and also because the right weapons were not delivered).

At this time, the Russians are at an advantage and may actually be able conquer the whole Dombass region, despite incompetence afloat in their ranks.

Ryuu96 said: SecondWar said: My question with that is how effective will they ultimately prove to be. The Howitzers were touted as a potential game changer for Ukraine but a week or so on from them being delivered and news about them has been eerily silent. That suggests ones pf two things - that Russia did indeed take out a good number of them when they claimed to hit an arms depot outside Kyiv a few days back or they haven’t been able to have much impact in the field. Others claims they may not yet have made it to the frontline, which seems odd given the prominence they had in the media. Bare in mind that Ukraine said their major counter attack won't start until mid-June at the earliest which implies that a lot of equipment still hasn't reached its target destination yet, I think the Howitzers have still been good to Ukraine but they're mostly slowly down Russia's advance rather than putting a stop to it, Russia has artillery too which can reach Ukraine's. However, HIMARS is vastly more capable than the artillery that Ukraine currently has, it's a lot more capable in both its range and its amazing accuracy, Ukraine's M777 Howitzers have a top range of about 18 miles, the M270 MLRS has a range of 20 - 40 miles, the more advanced rockets can travel 100+ miles, the M142 HIMARS has a range of 186 miles, the specialized ammo has a range of 310 miles. The Howitzers they have right now are nice but still put them in danger from Russia's counter artillery strikes, MLRS/HIMARS range vastly outperforms any artillery that Ukraine currently has, it will allow them to fire from relatively safe distances too, it will out-range most Russian artillery too, they could threaten not only Russian attackers but logistical buildings, supply routes, etc. MLRS is a lot easier to move too, it was designed partly for that purpose, to fire and then drive off before the Soviets could zero in on it, Ukraine can fire from a relatively safe location, quickly pack it up and drive off before Russia spots the location, whereas with Howitzers require a truck to tow them around, the Howitzers can only fire one shell at a time too compared to M270 MLRS which fires 12 rockets in less than a minute. There's zero chance that America will give Ukraine their best ammunition though but even the most basic one is far deadlier than these Howitzers, also, according to Lockheed themselves, the rockets have a 98% accuracy rating (due to it being GPS-guided). Of course no one thing will change the tide of war but a combination of everything, nevertheless, these MLRS will be very deadly and useful to Ukraine. Why the HIMARS could change the Battle of Donbas. 👇 https://t.co/TXdvnzlIvo — Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) May 26, 2022

Also to add, if you buying 500 of them, its basically implying you target us, we will just mass launch them all, so even if there is room for error, well with that many these explosions would be on top of each other and nothing be left standing, if they chose to target a region (i.e, an advancing army convoy). 

More so a deterrent tactic that will never get used. I guess instead of building a wall out of rocks like China did, this wall will be out of M142 HIMARS

drkohler said: Ryuu96 said: Bare in mind that Ukraine said their major counter attack won't start until mid-June at the earliest Not going to happen. Some realism is needed here. The Ukraine is not in a position to start counterattacking on an organised scale. Putin has basically made a fundamental military mistake, historically the same one General Santa Anna made when he wanted to squash the Texas revolution. Instead of bypassing the Alamo, leaving only a small occupying force there, he squandered valuable time assembling all his troops around an unimportant church for an unimportant victory. Which gave Housten all the time he needed to organise. Same with that steel thing. Russians squandered valuable time at an unimportant steel factory for an unimportanrt victory instead of simply bypassing it. Unfortunately for the Ukranians, the time gained was not long enough to organise (and also because the right weapons were not delivered). At this time, the Russians are at an advantage and may actually be able conquer the whole Dombass region, despite incompetence afloat in their ranks.

Ukraine has already proven that counter attack may be effective against Russia in Kyiv, Summy, Kharkiv and kherson.

In addition, there are many factors to consider that could indicate that Ukraine is indeed preparing a large counter offensive.

1. Russia has committed only around 200k troops for this Conflict
   1. while this may seems a large number their special operation narrative, other conflicts and defense of their own territory pretty much prevent them from rapidly increasing this number.
2. Ukraine have now mobilized more than 700k troops.
3. Russia territorial gain are minimal for now and have cost them way more troops and assets than anticipated.
4. Ukraine's troops are outgunned for now, but their training appears to put Russian troops to shame.
5. Ukraine Morals remain High and their resolution are strong, intel shows Russian troops moral is terrible.
   1. This is while Ukrainian are the ones being heavily shelled daily (to which they have now grown somewhat accustomed).
6. If Ukraine start shelling Russian position as heavily, even for a short period of time, this might completely destroy what remains of there moral and resolve and may break open the front line.
7. Mid-June ain't a coincidence, mud season should be over allowing either party to move more swiftly leading to devastating result to whomever front line break first.
   1. This may well be a factor which deem a large scale counter attack not only possible but even a necessity.
8. Nato is assisting with assets, intel, and logistic

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 27 May 2022