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EpicRandy on 27 May 2022
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drkohler said:
Ryuu96 said:

Bare in mind that Ukraine said their major counter attack won't start until mid-June at the earliest

Not going to happen. Some realism is needed here. The Ukraine is not in a position to start counterattacking on an organised scale.

Putin has basically made a fundamental military mistake, historically the same one General Santa Anna made when he wanted to squash the Texas revolution. Instead of bypassing the Alamo, leaving only a small occupying force there, he squandered valuable time assembling all his troops around an unimportant church for an unimportant victory. Which gave Housten all the time he needed to organise.

Same with that steel thing. Russians squandered valuable time at an unimportant steel factory for an unimportanrt victory instead of simply bypassing it. Unfortunately for the Ukranians, the time gained was not long enough to organise (and also because the right weapons were not delivered).

At this time, the Russians are at an advantage and may actually be able conquer the whole Dombass region, despite incompetence afloat in their ranks.

Ukraine has already proven that counter attack may be effective against Russia in Kyiv, Summy, Kharkiv and kherson.

In addition, there are many factors to consider that could indicate that Ukraine is indeed preparing a large counter offensive.

  1. Russia has committed only around 200k troops for this Conflict
    1. while this may seems a large number their special operation narrative, other conflicts and defense of their own territory pretty much prevent them from rapidly increasing this number.
  2. Ukraine have now mobilized more than 700k troops.
  3. Russia territorial gain are minimal for now and have cost them way more troops and assets than anticipated.
  4. Ukraine's troops are outgunned for now, but their training appears to put Russian troops to shame.
  5. Ukraine Morals remain High and their resolution are strong, intel shows Russian troops moral is terrible.
    1. This is while Ukrainian are the ones being heavily shelled daily (to which they have now grown somewhat accustomed).
  6. If Ukraine start shelling Russian position as heavily, even for a short period of time, this might completely destroy what remains of there moral and resolve and may break open the front line.
  7. Mid-June ain't a coincidence, mud season should be over allowing either party to move more swiftly leading to devastating result to whomever front line break first.
    1. This may well be a factor which deem a large scale counter attack not only possible but even a necessity.
  8. Nato is assisting with assets, intel, and logistic

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 27 May 2022