Agreed, if Retro Studios is able to make a FUN, game with wonderful things that make it amazing. And local & Online multiplayer. It can sell a couple million very easily.

Nintendo will most likely not be releasing Mario Kart X (so rumors call it) as the launch title. It will most likely be a 3D Mario Adventure, with some other titles of course. Then within a couple of months they will release Mario Kart X. That way they can capitalize on each major game Nintendo has planned for the NG. If you put too many games togehter, a couple will get lost, and not receive the deserved attention and spending.

I highly doubt Switch will be almost as powerful as PS5, it may be able to run most current gen games (many of which still release on previous gen consoles) and not appear to be a massive difference to the average person but PS5 will be comfortably more powerful on a technical level.

PS5 costs $450-500, a portable that’s nearly as powerful would likely be $600 or more and Nintendo is not releasing a $600 device. The most likely scenario is that Switch 2 vs PS5 will be similar to Switch vs PS4 but thanks to diminishing returns, engines designed for scalability and techniques like DLSS, the gap might appear closer.

Remember Nintendo really put their marketing muscle (and money) behind Dread. It was THE fall 2021 game for them besides some Pokomon remakes. And it essentially being the launch game for the OLED model helped too. I love Dread, but it does not seem to have any legs.

Nintendo's forecast of 15m this year always felt too low to me but I guess they saw this holiday season coming. Japan is down 42% YoY for the month and USA is looking to be down possibly over 40%. IDK if December can improve but this holiday is looking rough to say the least. 160m+ is looking an increasingly difficult hurdle to reach.

Not really a comparison. Firstly Zelda has a lot more games released and always had ups and downs sales wise. There was no downwards spiral like with the Prime games that occurred after the first one.

Let's not forget the N64 had 4-player, which the competition did not have. I believe many FPS enthusiast have gone to Playstation, XBOX or PC over the years. Just look at how many FPS games there are on Switch and how they are selling.

If switch 2 releases in 2024 then it's impossible for switch to hit 160m. Nintendo must delay releasing the switch 2 to 2026/2027 for it to have any chance of beating the PS2 and become the best selling console ever. 8-10m next year, 5m in 2025 and another 5m before the switch 2 launches in early 2027

Looking at Nintendo's financial briefing released after the last investment meeting, there was a chart where it was shown in what countries Nintendo officially sells their products. If I read the chart correctly Nintendo does not sell officially in countries like India, Thailand or Indonesia. I get that the average income isn't very high in these countries, but these are highly populated. There should be a market of a few million Switches every year there. Perhaps there are reasons, but I don't know why Nintendo is not officially present there. I visited Thailand a couple of years ago and you can find Sony shops with PlayStation there.

Switch 2 will be much closer to PS4 than PS5

Cross gen titles will only not happen if Nintendo don't want them to happen to make people rushing buying the new console. It can happen with few IPs, but something more niche like Metroid? Hardly. Metroid development started many years ago anyway, and they promised the game to be released on Switch just like BOTW was promised to be released on Wii U

It's kinda like the same concept as China, except there aren't any law outlawing capitalistic ideas.

India, China, Thailand, Indonesia have a high black market ratio where "fake" consoles are sold at a ridiculously low rate that play the games that kids want. 
The economy over there is very poor, over 50% live in poverty but have enough to get by. Consoles are way too expensive $300 USD is very high compared to the Rupee. 
The demographic are not playing like the US is now, they aren't sitting down at a tv to play games. The children in India are active, running, working, watching football. If they are playing games they are most likely playing on the fake consoles or free games on their phones like China.

I totally agree, Nintendo should be selling consoles in those countries, but they should be selling them at a really dirt cheap price, but that could get messy with scammers, and people selling Indian-market consoles outside of India making bank. It's a rough decision.