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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Chrkeller on 23 April 2023
haxxiy said:
Chrkeller said:

Switch 2 will be max $350, in my opinion. I think people are already overestimating the power and chips set Nintendo will opt for.

Almost certain it'll be the Orin NX, though (a die of unsure dimensions but it looks to be at least 300 mm2). Even if shrinking it to TSMC's 5N makes it around the size of the Tegra X1 on the OG Switch, it'll still be much more expensive to manufacture.

Of course, Nintendo might opt to sell it for reduced profits or even an initial loss and make it back in software, which I think they will. Their cash cow is obviously software, after all.

I don't doubt the Switch 2 chipset will be more expensive than the current switch, but I would argue the current switch is no where near $300 of materials..   it just keeps selling hence no price cuts.  I would be stunned if Nintendo went over $300 on the Switch 2.  High end gaming isn't their market.



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Zippy6 on 23 April 2023
Chrkeller said:

Switch 2 will be max $350, in my opinion. I think people are already overestimating the power and chips set Nintendo will opt for.

Yes I would be stunned if they charged $399 and it wouldn't be a good move. It's pretty obvious that their audience isn't buying consoles for the specs. For $299 in 2024 they can sell a system a lot more powerful than the Switch and still make a profit on every unit sold. $399 would have to be a high powered device and as much as I personally would like Nintendo to go there it wouldn't be a good move for them.



Kakadu18 on 23 April 2023

People said $300 for the Switch is to expensive in 2017 and many said it would flop because of that alone.
Then people said $350 is to expensive in 2021 and the OLED Switch is a rip-off. And now it's the most popular model.

Why would in 2024 $400 for a much more powerful system be to expensive?
I heard many arguments in 2021 as to why the OLED model was supposedly overpriced and none of them mattered in the end. After all the inflation, with much more expensive chipsets and a battery that still needs to run for a similar time as the Switch's battery they won't be selling that thing for the same price as the OLED model (even if that one got a price cut).

Nintendo selling a console at a loss would be a first and there's really no reason for them to do that. There's way more reasons why they should never do that.



AJNShelton on 23 April 2023

@Kakadu18 exactly. I saw a lor of "Nintendo is doomed if they sell the Switch higher than $250" back in 2017. At the end they did just fine



Zippy6 on 23 April 2023
Kakadu18 said:

People said $300 for the Switch is to expensive in 2017 and many said it would flop because of that alone.
Then people said $350 is to expensive in 2021 and the OLED Switch is a rip-off. And now it's the most popular model.

Why would in 2024 $400 for a much more powerful system be to expensive?
I heard many arguments in 2021 as to why the OLED model was supposedly overpriced and none of them mattered in the end. After all the inflation, with much more expensive chipsets and a battery that still needs to run for a similar time as the Switch's battery they won't be selling that thing for the same price as the OLED model (even if that one got a price cut).

Nintendo selling a console at a loss would be a first and there's really no reason for them to do that. There's way more reasons why they should never do that.

The production cost of the Switch was estimated at $260 back at launch, it'll be much cheaper to produce now and the OLED changes were estimated to only add $10 onto the production cost. Nintendo's profit margins on Switch hardware, especially the OLED, is likely to be very very big. Even if the new model costs significantly more to make they can still price it the same as the OLED and still make a profit. The Steam Deck starts at $399 after all and while that may or may not be sold at a loss the next Switch doesn't need an expensive X86 APU or 16gb of ram.

Nintendo's wider audience don't care about having a "much more powerful system" so prioritising specs over price would be a mistake. People are still flocking to the Switch in 2023 with it's ancient technology and a price tag that hasn't been reduced. A weaker cheaper console will do better for Nintendo than a more expensive more powerful console. There is no need to risk putting off consumers with a higher price tag for everyone. It needs to be more powerful, it doesn't need to be $399 levels of more powerful.

Also, not that I think PlayStation/Xbox have a significant impact on Nintendo sales, but it's worth noting that $399 would put them firmly in that territory. I fully expect the new PS5 "slim" that is supposedly launching this fall will be the same $399 as the digital edition, all-be-it also without a disc drive. By the end of 2024 we could see a $399 tag for an Xbox Series X revision too.

For Nintendo price tag is far more important than specs. They should just make the best system they can for $299 or $349 that the technology available allows, which in 2024 should be a lot better than what they managed in 2017.



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Chrkeller on 23 April 2023
Kakadu18 said:

People said $300 for the Switch is to expensive in 2017 and many said it would flop because of that alone.
Then people said $350 is to expensive in 2021 and the OLED Switch is a rip-off. And now it's the most popular model.

Why would in 2024 $400 for a much more powerful system be to expensive?
I heard many arguments in 2021 as to why the OLED model was supposedly overpriced and none of them mattered in the end. After all the inflation, with much more expensive chipsets and a battery that still needs to run for a similar time as the Switch's battery they won't be selling that thing for the same price as the OLED model (even if that one got a price cut).

Nintendo selling a console at a loss would be a first and there's really no reason for them to do that. There's way more reasons why they should never do that.

Because a lot of parents buy a switch for their kids.  $400 I think it just pushing it, especially because of inflation.  Life is more expensive for everyone, especially the middle class.  Going too high on a switch 2 would not be a great idea.  I could see $350.  I just don't see $400.  Time will tell.

And Nintendo could see the switch, including the OLED, for a lot less than they currently are.  

For the record my household has 3 switch units, we love the switch.  I think their price point is why we bought more than one for the kids (and myself).



Kakadu18 on 23 April 2023
Zippy6 said:

The production cost of the Switch was estimated at $260 back at launch, it'll be much cheaper to produce now and the OLED changes were estimated to only add $10 onto the production cost. Nintendo's profit margins on Switch hardware, especially the OLED, is likely to be very very big. Even if the new model costs significantly more to make they can still price it the same as the OLED and still make a profit. The Steam Deck starts at $399 after all and while that may or may not be sold at a loss the next Switch doesn't need an expensive X86 APU or 16gb of ram.

Nintendo's wider audience don't care about having a "much more powerful system" so prioritising specs over price would be a mistake. People are still flocking to the Switch in 2023 with it's ancient technology and a price tag that hasn't been reduced. A weaker cheaper console will do better for Nintendo than a more expensive more powerful console. There is no need to risk putting off consumers with a higher price tag for everyone. It needs to be more powerful, it doesn't need to be $399 levels of more powerful.

Also, not that I think PlayStation/Xbox have a significant impact on Nintendo sales, but it's worth noting that $399 would put them firmly in that territory. I fully expect the new PS5 "slim" that is supposedly launching this fall will be the same $399 as the digital edition, all-be-it also without a disc drive. By the end of 2024 we could see a $399 tag for an Xbox Series X revision too.

For Nintendo price tag is far more important than specs. They should just make the best system they can for $299 or $349 that the technology available allows, which in 2024 should be a lot better than what they managed in 2017.

Nintendo themselves said that the OLED model has the lowest profit margin of all models.



Kyuu on 23 April 2023

Yeah I think Nintendo will be fine pricing the standard Switch 2 anywhere between $400-$500 as long as it packs the specs that justify the price. $500 at launch alongside a $400 Lite/Digital/Whatever version is the way to go imo.

Gamers are much less price sensitive these days, and Nintendo is stronger than ever.



Zippy6 on 23 April 2023
Kakadu18 said:

Nintendo themselves said that the OLED model has the lowest profit margin of all models.

Hmmm. Looking it up they did say that it didn't have a higher profit margin than the normal switch model, though they didn't say it had a lower one either. Regardless my thoughts on this are the same. Nintendo are better off making a lower spec cheaper machine than a higher spec more expensive machine. They have an audience that is still willing to buy a 0.4TF system in high numbers in 2023.

I'm not saying a $400 machine would fail, but I am saying a weaker $299-$349 would do better for them.



Chrkeller on 23 April 2023
Zippy6 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Nintendo themselves said that the OLED model has the lowest profit margin of all models.

Hmmm. Looking it up they did say that it didn't have a higher profit margin than the normal switch model, though they didn't say it had a lower one either. Regardless my thoughts on this are the same. Nintendo are better off making a lower spec cheaper machine than a higher spec more expensive machine. They have an audience that is still willing to buy a 0.4TF system in high numbers in 2023.

I'm not saying a $400 machine would fail, but I am saying a weaker $299-$349 would do better for them.

No doubt.  Anybody who knows Nintendo and knows their audience is likely to expect a $300-$350, max (absolute) is $400.  Those getting excited about a $500 powerhouse switch 2 are going to be disappointed.  Nintendo gave up the power game a long time ago.  The DS, 3DS, Wii, Wii U and Switch were never powerhouses.  Those who want power need to go Sony, MS or PC.