Weird, the Switch 1 has been declining in sales year by year for a while. It has a few games but hardly any coming out. Traiffs may make the price go up, not down. It will almost certainly have a big drop in sales from last years 11 million with the release of the Switch 2 and it has probably 2 more years of 1st party game production. It probably needs 18 million more to sell 170m. It won't do that.

That's a selective and disingenuous example. The 3DS was 100 dollars more 5 weeks before that and Nintendo were dealing with the fallout of over pricing it. It had a bad start and no momentum and never reached it's potential sales. Also the Switch has had  along than average lifespan. Parents are already buying it for their childs first console. You don't believe they have planned and are waiting years for a price drop do you? They need it that Christmas or birthday not to wait a year or two.

A big drop in sales of the old console is a trend, it's evident on most past Nintendo consoles and it's evidenced by the trends in Playstation and Xbox. Likewise the Switch 1 simply isn't cheap in the current climate.

Switch should be 156 million by June
160-161 million by January easily

How it will get there easily by January when it's likely already selling less than 100k a week? Going by shipments it was a bit under 151m by the end of last year and will likely be a bit under 152.5m as of the end of March and it goes without saying that it's easily gonna ship less than half of 3.6-7m this quarter.

It should be 153.5 - 154 million right now

156 m end of June 

157 m in September 

159 in December 

160 in Jan 

Why do you think they shipped significantly more Switch consoles last quarter compared to Q4 last year when the last six quarters have all been down YoY? Nothing has happened so far this year to boost Switch sales by that much.

Nintendo's last shipment report had the Switch 1 with 150.86 M units shipped by December 2024. By the end of March 2025, VGChartz's sales numbers for the Switch won't have reached this 150.89M number. This is interesting because, as far as I remember, VGChartz's sales numbers have always passed Switch's shipment numbers for the previous quarter. That won't be the case for the current quarter, though. What does that mean?

If you notice some previous post of our friend znake, you'll notice he is highly optimistic when it comes to Switch's sales. I'm not surprised by this latest projections of his

Oh yeah I'm aware. I was just curious to see if he'd make any attempt at backing up what's he saying.

The shipments are getting less and less every quarter now, because the difference between sold units and shipments will shrink with each quarter. Therefore the shipped numbers should be less than the actually sold ones going ahead, because till the end of 2024, there were more than 2M shipped units than the sold ones. March will be probably the last month Switch will sell close to or around 500k units only because it's 5 weeks. Otherwise it would probably go around 400k. So with ~500k for March we get to 150.2M sold by end of March 2025 (it was 149.7M with February). And since the difference is shrinking between shipped and sold, this time the difference won't be 2M or more. So 152.5M as @Norion said is not likely. It will be at 152M shipped at best. Yes, that means 1.14M shipped for the quarter. Reasonable drop from 1.96M the same quarter last year, for a system entering it's 9th year, and successor announced. With 152M shipped, the difference between shipped and sold becomes around 1.8M from little over 2M before. It will of course continue to shrink over the next quarters as well. So to summarize, yes that means around 1.5M sold units for the quarter, and at the same time close to 1.2M shipped. This trend I expect to continue over the next few quarters.