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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

eldanielfire on 05 April 2025
tak13 said:
Wman1996 said:

It could take until 2028 for Switch to sell 1 million units or less in a year, so I agree. 

While Switch has reached a far higher saturation point than PS2 had in 2006, there is a real chance if Switch 2 sales are below expectations that Nintendo could still make enough Switch units and finish in the high 160s to low 170s. 

Considering Switch 2 isn't likely to head to a PS3 level disaster in the early years, I think 180 million units is still off the table for Switch. 

Exactly that. 

Just in case of a ns2 rough start.

I can't imagine Nintendo pulling the plug, it's the only back up (and well all these profits they made on NS). 

I think the price of the games is by far bigger issue than the device price.

Europe, which s the only place where ns trailing behind Ds considerably except France(mostly owing to the added value tax) , can be a key to NS even exceeding 170m.

Also Nintendo switch lite, they can push it in developing markets 

Let's keep in mind that ps2 sold the most in such markets in its final years, notably Brazzzzzzil.

Let's see their 2025/2026 sales forecast, the most exciting ever imo... It will tell us everything. 

Weird, the Switch 1 has been declining in sales year by year for a while. It has a few games but hardly any coming out. Traiffs may make the price go up, not down. It will almost certainly have a big drop in sales from last years 11 million with the release of the Switch 2 and it has probably 2 more years of 1st party game production. It probably needs 18 million more to sell 170m. It won't do that.



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eldanielfire on 05 April 2025
RolStoppable said:
Sagemode87 said:

When accounting for inflation, it's pretty much the same. Switch also has way more market saturation than any console before it. I don't see people buying Switch 1 when(basically) for an extra hundred dollars, they can have the future proof console. If price was everything, Series S would've sold faster than PS5. Now if Nintendo drops the price of Switch 1, there's a case to be made. 

Accounting for inflation doesn't change anything here.

DS to 3DS price comparisons in August 2011 were DS Lite ($99), DSi ($149), DSi XL ($169), 3DS ($169). That's a setup that creates an immense disadvantage for the old generation, hence why DS sales dropped so steeply in 2011. It's a recurring event in this thread that eldanielfire doesn't want to acknowledge this.

Switch to Switch 2 price comparisons are Switch Lite ($199), Switch ($299 with a pack-in), OLED ($349), Switch 2 ($449). That's a setup that threatens the OLED model, but not the other two Switch SKUs which are significantly cheaper.

End of life sales see a higher concentration of sales that go to parents of kids who get their first console. $199 for the Switch Lite is a much better offering than $449 for a Switch 2, because there's also the consideration that kids break things. Talks about saturation are all fine and good, but at the same time there are a lot of new kids born every year, so we are looking at sales to people who weren't even alive when Switch launched in 2017. The only thing you address in your post are people who are looking to buy the best Switch possible, so of course your take falls flat on its face in no time.

That's a selective and disingenuous example. The 3DS was 100 dollars more 5 weeks before that and Nintendo were dealing with the fallout of over pricing it. It had a bad start and no momentum and never reached it's potential sales. Also the Switch has had  along than average lifespan. Parents are already buying it for their childs first console. You don't believe they have planned and are waiting years for a price drop do you? They need it that Christmas or birthday not to wait a year or two.


A big drop in sales of the old console is a trend, it's evident on most past Nintendo consoles and it's evidenced by the trends in Playstation and Xbox. Likewise the Switch 1 simply isn't cheap in the current climate.