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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

XtremeBG said:
Torpoleon said:

@PAOerfulone Good point. I'd definitely consider it a fair minimum to look for in the financial report. I've personally been hoping for them to have shipped about 5.70 million in Q4, so that would bring total Switch numbers to 151.74m at the end of 2024. Hopefully we're close! Seems at least likely that they shipped over 5m, with total cumulative being over 151m.

As often the shipment numbers are better than most expectations about the Switch, I won't be surprised if they announce at least 6M shipped and something like 152M or over that.

But then again, 146.04 (the last shipments announced) were sold according to VGChartz by end of November. December did 2.7M sales worldwide and as the shipments are usually around 2-2.5M more than the sales, then if we put 2 to 2.5M above those 2.7M we get to a range of 4.7M to 5.2M. So it will be most likely anything around 151-152M range. Will there be enough demand for 9-10M more shipped units after that so that Switch pass the PS2 and it's confirmed number of 160.6M ?

Is that 160.6M even confirmed? As far as I know, the only real and confirmed thing about PS2's sales is the vague information that it sold more than 160M units.



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CourageTCD said:
XtremeBG said:

As often the shipment numbers are better than most expectations about the Switch, I won't be surprised if they announce at least 6M shipped and something like 152M or over that.

But then again, 146.04 (the last shipments announced) were sold according to VGChartz by end of November. December did 2.7M sales worldwide and as the shipments are usually around 2-2.5M more than the sales, then if we put 2 to 2.5M above those 2.7M we get to a range of 4.7M to 5.2M. So it will be most likely anything around 151-152M range. Will there be enough demand for 9-10M more shipped units after that so that Switch pass the PS2 and it's confirmed number of 160.6M ?

Is that 160.6M even confirmed? As far as I know, the only real and confirmed thing about PS2's sales is the vague information that it sold more than 160M units.

According to Shawn Layden that PS2 picture is real with 160,636,885 units produced. Sold wise Sony has stated over 160 million, so the final total is somewhere between those two figures.

Shawn Layden confirmed this picture of what was "the last PS2 production unit" is legit

Now we know it produced 160.6M. Not all units in production will be shipped and Sony only confirmed 160.0M on their website. We know the PS3 had a production total of +88M yet only shipped 87.4M

[image or embed]

— John Welfare (@johnbp.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 12:35 PM


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
CourageTCD said:

Is that 160.6M even confirmed? As far as I know, the only real and confirmed thing about PS2's sales is the vague information that it sold more than 160M units.

According to Shawn Layden that PS2 picture is real with 160,636,885 units produced. Sold wise Sony has stated over 160 million, so the final total is somewhere between those two figures.

Shawn Layden confirmed this picture of what was "the last PS2 production unit" is legit

Now we know it produced 160.6M. Not all units in production will be shipped and Sony only confirmed 160.0M on their website. We know the PS3 had a production total of +88M yet only shipped 87.4M

[image or embed]

— John Welfare (@johnbp.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 12:35 PM

I missed this back in December 2024. Geez, no wonder people mock Sony for taking PS2 numbers out of theirs sleeves every now and then. If this image was  true after all, why did they take so long to confirm it, then? Well, in the end, Shawn Layden is not working at Sony anymore so this information is not actually official.


Edit: Well one can make a point that VGChartz' numbers are also not official and we use it to discussion anyway..

Last edited by CourageTCD - 1 day ago

JRPGfan said:
RolStoppable said:

4.3 Times have changed. During the early generations of consoles, new platforms had to be introduced to keep up with increasing gameplay possibilities. Nowadays it's basically just about adding more bells and whistles to the graphics of games, first and foremost games of developers and publishers who don't want to publish their games on a Nintendo platform to begin with. That's why there's no pressure on Nintendo to release a new console because a new PS and Xbox are out now; the disparities in graphical fidelity is essentially meaningless.

I think this is a good to mention.
Even more so for PS5,XSX2, Switch2 (or whatever future consoles are called).
Honestly price to entry is still a huge issue for many.
Maybe future consoles dont need as big improvements as prior gens (honestly PS5/XSX are monsters, most dont need more).

Looking back (now), I actually think Microsoft made a smart move with the Xbox Series S.
I hope Sony dont do a PS5 Pro, and instead focuses on makeing them cheaper (PS5 slims), and when its becomes time for a PS6,
they focus more on the end price of the unit.

Nintendo with the Switch are in a great position.
Even at start with the Switch, they sold it at more than decent profits, and can easily afford to lower prices on units.

If they want to reach 160m, they just need to lower the barrier to entry that is the price of units.
Get the Switch Light down to 149$ and the actual Switch down to 199$.

Time to break that old PS2 sales record.

Torpoleon said:

@Slownenberg If Nintendo holds off on releasing Switch 2 until Holiday 2025, I do agree that Switch outselling PS4 & Xbox One combined is definitely in the cards!

So around 175m or so? Its bold :) Thats like 70m+ units sold from now til Holidays 2025. (2years 8months or so?)


So...... its been like 3years.


1) The mentality of the Series S, kinda backfired, since theres been devs that claim the reason x,y,z games are not on xbox is the hassel of also getting stuff to work on the series s. So you heard xbox crowd being kinda mad about the series S. That said, it still makes up like half of the total xbox systems sold. So in a sense, I still think it was a good idea from xbox side to make a series S. Perphaps a better option would have been a middle ground between the S and X, and a cheaper price? I dont know.

2) Playstation did release a PS5pro.... how well that is doing? I'm not sure.

3) Nintendo barely touched the price point of the Switch.... and its still looking like it might break past 160m.

4) Nintendo actually did the logical thing, and called it "Switch 2" :)



trunkswd said:
CourageTCD said:

Is that 160.6M even confirmed? As far as I know, the only real and confirmed thing about PS2's sales is the vague information that it sold more than 160M units.

According to Shawn Layden that PS2 picture is real with 160,636,885 units produced. Sold wise Sony has stated over 160 million, so the final total is somewhere between those two figures.

Shawn Layden confirmed this picture of what was "the last PS2 production unit" is legit

Now we know it produced 160.6M. Not all units in production will be shipped and Sony only confirmed 160.0M on their website. We know the PS3 had a production total of +88M yet only shipped 87.4M

[image or embed]

— John Welfare (@johnbp.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 12:35 PM

Can we see the confirmation by Shawn Layden himself instead of a random twitter post stated it? A twitter post of Shawn himself? A Link to a podcast? An interview? Anything?

I can make a twitterpost stating that Myamoto confirmed the Wii sold 180 million with no evidence every day.

edit: That PS2 picture still looks so shitty, it is impossible to believe the last one would have been kept in such shitty state.

Last edited by Tober - 1 day ago

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Tober said:
trunkswd said:

According to Shawn Layden that PS2 picture is real with 160,636,885 units produced. Sold wise Sony has stated over 160 million, so the final total is somewhere between those two figures.

Shawn Layden confirmed this picture of what was "the last PS2 production unit" is legit

Now we know it produced 160.6M. Not all units in production will be shipped and Sony only confirmed 160.0M on their website. We know the PS3 had a production total of +88M yet only shipped 87.4M

[image or embed]

— John Welfare (@johnbp.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 12:35 PM

Can we see the confirmation by Shawn Layden himself instead of a random twitter post stated it? A twitter post of Shawn himself? A Link to a podcast? An interview? Anything?

I can make a twitterpost stating that Myamoto confirmed the Wii sold 180 million with no evidence every day.

edit: That PS2 picture still looks so shitty, it is impossible to believe the last one would have been kept in such shitty state.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Tober said:
trunkswd said:

According to Shawn Layden that PS2 picture is real with 160,636,885 units produced. Sold wise Sony has stated over 160 million, so the final total is somewhere between those two figures.

Shawn Layden confirmed this picture of what was "the last PS2 production unit" is legit

Now we know it produced 160.6M. Not all units in production will be shipped and Sony only confirmed 160.0M on their website. We know the PS3 had a production total of +88M yet only shipped 87.4M

[image or embed]

— John Welfare (@johnbp.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 12:35 PM

Can we see the confirmation by Shawn Layden himself instead of a random twitter post stated it? A twitter post of Shawn himself? A Link to a podcast? An interview? Anything?

I can make a twitterpost stating that Myamoto confirmed the Wii sold 180 million with no evidence every day.

edit: That PS2 picture still looks so shitty, it is impossible to believe the last one would have been kept in such shitty state.

@bolded: Pretty sure it's just the premask film that you peel off of new electronics on the bottom portion of the console. e.g.:

And the film is peeling/slightly damaged:

Personally, I'm inclined to believe him.  For one thing, the theoretical maximum that PS2 sales could possibly be is something like 161.8m; A figure that most would agree is not realistic, seeing as how every single undeclared shipment unit that Sony lumped together would have to favor PS2.  So, 160.6m falls in the ballpark of what many who have done the math had speculated:  "Around" 160m

Kinda sad that a company doesn't just put up its numbers officially, but here we are.  So if the Switch makes it to 160.7m, it's the new champ in my mind (and Mr. Layden's too, apparently).  And if Switch makes it to 162m, then there's absolutely, positively no argument for denial whatsoever that Switch is #1.  The math just doesn't math for the PS2 at that point.



trunkswd said:
Tober said:

Can we see the confirmation by Shawn Layden himself instead of a random twitter post stated it? A twitter post of Shawn himself? A Link to a podcast? An interview? Anything?

I can make a twitterpost stating that Myamoto confirmed the Wii sold 180 million with no evidence every day.

edit: That PS2 picture still looks so shitty, it is impossible to believe the last one would have been kept in such shitty state.

I’m torn on this. On one hand, I believe Shawn Layden when he says the number is legitimate (what reason would he have to lie?). On the other hand, I find it hard to believe any figure above 160 million, as it would make the PS3 numbers for FY12 unrealistically low. You can’t have it both ways - inflating the PS2 numbers automatically means reducing the PS3 numbers to a point where they no longer make sense.



Rumors say that there will be a Switch 1 Direct in February. If that's true, I think Nintendo really intends to stick with the Switch 1 at least until the first half of the year, still making efforts to make people buy it. That's different from "save your money until the Switch 2 get released". Another thing is that the Switch 2 Direct will be on April. I think that releasing the Switch 2 less than 4 months after a Direct is rushing up things. So combining everything I said, I see Nintendo activelly promoting the Switch 1 until June/July and releasing the Switch 2 in August/September. I see games being released in both Switch 1 and Switch 2 for a while so the Switch 1 will still have a place during 2025 holidays



@XtremeBG I believe the Switch has just enough in the tank to sell the additional 9-10 million it will likely need after Holiday 2024. To make things easier on all of us, I would say the goal should be 161m for NS1. I think they could do it if they don't discontinue NS1 until at least September 2027 or so. I could see NS1 sell about 5.50m in 2025, about 2.75m in 2026 and about 1.00m in 2027.

@JRPGfan Back then, I had hopes that they'd hold off on releasing NS2 until Holiday 2025, but at this point I can definitely see it being a June release. (By the way, past me would be so happy that they just decided to call it Nintendo Switch 2). Still, not sure why I'd think that 175m was in the cards back then, even with a late 2025 release for the successor. I guess Switch was just so hot back then, but 161m would still be incredible. Maybe NS1 will outsell PS5 & XSX combined.