At this point I think the most interesting race would be aligned Switch vs PS4+XBO. Would love to see a chart tracking this.
Cuz right now PS4 + XBO is at 167.12 million, which means when it's all over they should finish at probably a little under 169 million.

169mil I think is around the upper range of what Switch can do (~102 mil end of 2021, 22mil 2022, 18mil 2023, 14mil 2024, 6 mil 2025 (replaced Spring 2025?), 7 mil more total up until production stops would put it at 169 million. 160mil feels pretty safe as long as they don't replace it before 2025, but 169 mil would be fantastic and is right where PS4+XBO is finishing at.

@Slownenberg If Nintendo holds off on releasing Switch 2 until Holiday 2025, I do agree that Switch outselling PS4 & Xbox One combined is definitely in the cards!

I can't imagine that the Switch would be able to sell another 20mil in Europe. Just look at how well the system have sold in the region so far

13,88mil (2017-2019)
20,70mil (2020) (+6,82mil)
26,98mil (2021) (+6,28mil)

Even if the system sells 5mil in both 2022 and 2023, it still needs to sell another 10mil after that. It doesn't seem very likely.

The systems is selling to both home console and portable consumers though which changes the dynamic of its potential sales and even with overlap the are people who only opt for one.

I think this is a good to mention.
Even more so for PS5,XSX2, Switch2 (or whatever future consoles are called).
Honestly price to entry is still a huge issue for many.
Maybe future consoles dont need as big improvements as prior gens (honestly PS5/XSX are monsters, most dont need more).

Looking back (now), I actually think Microsoft made a smart move with the Xbox Series S.
I hope Sony dont do a PS5 Pro, and instead focuses on makeing them cheaper (PS5 slims), and when its becomes time for a PS6,
they focus more on the end price of the unit.

Nintendo with the Switch are in a great position.
Even at start with the Switch, they sold it at more than decent profits, and can easily afford to lower prices on units.

If they want to reach 160m, they just need to lower the barrier to entry that is the price of units.
Get the Switch Light down to 149$ and the actual Switch down to 199$.

Time to break that old PS2 sales record.

So around 175m or so? Its bold :) Thats like 70m+ units sold from now til Holidays 2025. (2years 8months or so?)

Even so, it's unlikely that the system would be able to sell another 10mil from 2024 and beyond considering that we are most likely getting a Switch 2 in either 2024 or 2025.

3DS sold another 10m after Switch launched with much less momentum while selling only to people who buy portables so that's not really that much of a hurdle to further sales.

@JRPGfan Actually it is closer to 170 million, possibly even just below 170. Final sales for PS4 should be close to 118 or slightly over and Xbox One should be 50 or 51. W

@Wyrdness While it is true that the 3DS sold 10 million after the Switch launched, the Switch was not backwards compatible with it (whereas a Switch 2 will likely be backwards compatible with Switch). By the way, @deerox was referring to 10 million for Switch in Europe from 2024 onward.

It sold 10 million worldwide, but only 3.10mil in "Other" regions. Europe was mixed together with "Other" back then so we don't know exactly how much the 3ds sold after the Switch launched, but we do know that it was less then 3.10mil.

It's about 10mil every year.