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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
Nu-13 on 11 January 2020
shikamaru317 said:
Nu-13 said:

You have a lot of explanning to do on why you think sales drop to 0 when a successor releases. I expect the switch to be over 110m by dec 31 2022 and it won't magically stop selling because it's successor just came out.

Never said it would stop selling, but sales usually go down by alot after a successor releases. PS2 was the main exception to that rule, it continued selling for 7 years after PS3 releases, and managed to sell an impressive 40m+ after PS3 released. DS by comparison only sold about 10m after 3DS released. PS3 sold about 6m after PS4 released. I would expect Switch sales after Switch 2 releases to fall somewhere between those two, so between 6 and 10m. 

Yes you did "it would have to pull of an average of 25m a year in 2020, 2021 and 2022 in order to hit 125m". The DS was already way oversaturated when the 3ds came out. The ps3 and 3ds are way less successful systems than the switch. Of course they didn't sell much after their successors when they were already selling little by the time those came out. Instead of looking at what other completely different systems did, why not look at the switch sales instead?



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Nu-13 on 11 January 2020
shikamaru317 said:
Nu-13 said:

Did it take like 4 years for us to see another system after the dreamcast?

Your second paragraph is priceless because even if the part about coming in the middle was true or the last part had any relevance to generations, it would mean the dreamcast was 5th gen. Both switch and dreamcast released 4 years after the start of previous gen. A little earlier than usual but not in the middle of anything. Since time of release is all that matters in this subject, that makes the dreamcast a 6th gen, switch a 9th gen, and ps5/xsx/switch 2 10th gen. How long existing consoles over/understay their welcome is completely irrelevant.

Switch is classified as an 8th gen console according to Wikipedia at least:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles

I agree with that personally, Switch released March 2017, about 3 years and 8 months before Xbox Series and PS5 will likely release in November 2020. I can't classify it in the same generation as PS5 and XS bearing that in mind, and we've never had a console generation where there was only a single console, so I disagree with putting Switch in it's own 9th generation and having PS5 and XS be 10th gen consoles. 

So what? Now we do. It just happened that for the first time ever a system started a new generation and no other console released until it was too late for them to be the same generation. Had ps5/xsx released in 2019, they would have been lateish 9th gen systems but 9th gen nonetheless.

Also, you're helping my case because if you agree the switch can't be the same gen as ps5 and xsx, you agree it's not part of the same gen as wiiu.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 11 January 2020

icykai on 11 January 2020

Technically, switch is a better Wii U, so i would consider it an 8th gen console that doesn't share sales with the Wii U. We could also act like Wii U never happened.



Slownenberg on 11 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
Slownenberg said:

That doesn't make sense to me. Why does Switch get its own gen? With that logic Switch 2 will need to be in gen 11 by itself. Did Dreamcast get a gen all to itself?

Switch is still part of gen 8. It came out in the middle of gen 8 and most of its lifetime before being replaced will be while only other gen 8 systems are on the market.

Switch 2 and PS5 and XS will be gen 9.

Did it take like 4 years for us to see another system after the dreamcast?

Your second paragraph is priceless because even if the part about coming in the middle was true or the last part had any relevance to generations, it would mean the dreamcast was 5th gen. Both switch and dreamcast released 4 years after the start of previous gen. A little earlier than usual but not in the middle of anything. Since time of release is all that matters in this subject, that makes the dreamcast a 6th gen, switch a 9th gen, and ps5/xsx/switch 2 10th gen. How long existing consoles over/understay their welcome is completely irrelevant.

You simply made up a gen for Switch to exist in all by itself. How does that make any sense? Switch is either part of XB1/PS4/WiiU gen or its a part of XbSeries/PS5 gen. Its not its own gen just because it launched in the middle of a generation. It came out pretty much exactly in the middle of gen 8, will likely spend the majority of its lifetime before being replaced with only gen 8 systems on the market. So it is more current gen than PS5/XBSeries gen. And its absurd to put it in its own gen just because it didn't come out at the same time as other systems.

And I don't think you understand my sentence about the Dreamcast, even though I clearly stated it: DID THE DREAMCAST GET A GEN ALL TO ITSELF? Answer: no. Why would the Switch? Dreamcast came out in the late-middle part of a generation (3 years after launch of N64, 2 years before GC/Xbox, with PS/PS2 launching early both those gens) as the early successor for Sega's failed Saturn about 4 years after it (like the Switch launched about 4 years after Wii U). So Dreamcast was either gonna be in the Saturn/PS1/N64 generation or the Xbox/GC/PS2 generation, not a generation of its own, as my question points out. So yes, very relevant, truthful, and accurate. Thanks.

And you still don't explain why a Switch 2 won't be part of its own gen 11 coming out years after your gen 10 even though you gave Switch its own gen for coming out years after gen 8. You have no consistency with future declaration of gens (Switch 2) or past accepted definitions of gens (Dreamcast).

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 11 January 2020

Nu-13 on 11 January 2020
icykai said:

Technically, switch is a better Wii U, so i would consider it an 8th gen console that doesn't share sales with the Wii U. We could also act like Wii U never happened.

Then the ps4 is a 5th gen console. Because the ps2 is just a petter ps, ps3 is a better ps2 and ps4 is just a better ps3.



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Cobretti2 on 11 January 2020
thismeintiel said:
xl-klaudkil said:
I remembered people thought the wii could beat the ps2 because of its monster sales.

Lets just wait and see if the switch can keep selling as high as its doing now for another 3 years.

This.  People are constantly overestimating Nintendo's legs for their consoles, while underestimating Sony's.  I also remember the people who said the PS4 was never going to beat the Wii, even though 2 out of 3 of Sony's previous systems did.  And the one that didn't came in a pretty close 2nd in that same gen with the Wii, 101.6M vs 87.4M.  And that was the gen they utterly screwed up.  Then, we had it won't hit 110M, which it will by the end of this quarter.  And now, it's "it won't hit 120M," even though it is a mere 12M away from that number, now. 

Now, I can definitely see Switch hitting 100M, give or take 10M.  But, it's not going to hit 125M, like the PS4 will most likely do.  I mean, the PS4 looks to be on track to sell 120M even without a price cut.  Give it one or two more, I can definitely see it hitting 125M-130M. 

I would just like to know what is going to keep the Switch selling ~20M every year for the next 4 years to get it to that number.  By 2021, all of Nintendo's big hitters will be out.  It will be receiving fewer AA and AAA ports thanks to those teams focusing on the newer systems.  Speaking of which, the novelty of being the new toy on the block will have completely worn off, as well.  And it will have already had a $199 SKU for over a year, pushing sales for those not willing to pay $299, so a price cut will have less of an impact by then than it would for the PS4.

To be fair at the start of the gen (before the consoles launched and we knew much) it wasn't a crazy thing to think PS4 wouldn't reach Wii numbers. The reason being as XBOX made some great gains last gen, so people thought Microsoft were in with a chance to finally maybe win a gen. Microsoft messed up the launch of XBOX ONE so much that people jumped ship to PS4. Once that happen it was pretty much guaranteed PS4 would do better sales.



 

 

Slownenberg on 11 January 2020
thismeintiel said:
xl-klaudkil said:
I remembered people thought the wii could beat the ps2 because of its monster sales.

Lets just wait and see if the switch can keep selling as high as its doing now for another 3 years.

This.  People are constantly overestimating Nintendo's legs for their consoles, while underestimating Sony's.  I also remember the people who said the PS4 was never going to beat the Wii, even though 2 out of 3 of Sony's previous systems did.  And the one that didn't came in a pretty close 2nd in that same gen with the Wii, 101.6M vs 87.4M.  And that was the gen they utterly screwed up.  Then, we had it won't hit 110M, which it will by the end of this quarter.  And now, it's "it won't hit 120M," even though it is a mere 12M away from that number, now. 

Now, I can definitely see Switch hitting 100M, give or take 10M.  But, it's not going to hit 125M, like the PS4 will most likely do.  I mean, the PS4 looks to be on track to sell 120M even without a price cut.  Give it one or two more, I can definitely see it hitting 125M-130M. 

I would just like to know what is going to keep the Switch selling ~20M every year for the next 4 years to get it to that number.  By 2021, all of Nintendo's big hitters will be out.  It will be receiving fewer AA and AAA ports thanks to those teams focusing on the newer systems.  Speaking of which, the novelty of being the new toy on the block will have completely worn off, as well.  And it will have already had a $199 SKU for over a year, pushing sales for those not willing to pay $299, so a price cut will have less of an impact by then than it would for the PS4.

While some people are overestimating what Switch's legs likely will be, and underestimating Playstations, you seem to be doing the opposite. You're saying PS4 will most likely hit 125 million, while that is still very up in the air. I mean for one, PS4 is just over 106 million and you are saying its gonna hit 110 by the end of this quarter...no it isn't. It'll probably hit 110 million late in the second quarter. So you're already inflating Playstation numbers right now. This is PS4's last year being being replaced, and its gonna be a much slower year than the 14 million it did last year since it'll be the old system on the market come the holiday season. PS4 might be 116 million by end of the year, at which point PS5 will be Sony's main seller. Its reasonable to expect Sony to sell up to another 10 million PS4's after the PS5 initial holiday launch. That'd put PS4 at 126 million tops likely, which in no way means it will most likely do 125 million or more.

Meanwhile You say Switch will hit 100 million, give or take 10 million, meaning 90-110. It should hit 90 mil by the end of 2021, well before any Switch 2 release, and should still be having monster sales by then. The 110 million is a better estimate, though likely Switch will pass that. I don't think Switch will pass PS4, but I think it will be within 10 million and maybe within 5 million. While you are overestimating PS4 (125+) and underestimating Switch leaving a 90-something million total as a possibility when it just soared over 50 million in less than 3 years with a lot more going for it longevity-wise than the Wii, whose mass popularity was basically a huge fad for non-gamers for a couple years then they stopped buying.



Nu-13 on 11 January 2020
Slownenberg said:
Nu-13 said:

Did it take like 4 years for us to see another system after the dreamcast?

Your second paragraph is priceless because even if the part about coming in the middle was true or the last part had any relevance to generations, it would mean the dreamcast was 5th gen. Both switch and dreamcast released 4 years after the start of previous gen. A little earlier than usual but not in the middle of anything. Since time of release is all that matters in this subject, that makes the dreamcast a 6th gen, switch a 9th gen, and ps5/xsx/switch 2 10th gen. How long existing consoles over/understay their welcome is completely irrelevant.

You simply made up a gen for Switch to exist in all by itself. How does that make any sense? Switch is either part of XB1/PS4/WiiU gen or its a part of XbSeries/PS5 gen. Its not its own gen just because it launched in the middle of a generation. It came out pretty much exactly in the middle of gen 8, will likely spend the majority of its lifetime before being replaced with only gen 8 systems on the market. So it is more current gen than PS5/XBSeries gen. And its absurd to put it in its own gen just because it didn't come out at the same time as other systems.

And I don't think you understand my sentence about the Dreamcast, even though I clearly stated it: DID THE DREAMCAST GET A GEN ALL TO ITSELF? Answer: no. Why would the Switch? Dreamcast came out in the late-middle part of a generation (3 years after launch of N64, 2 years before GC/Xbox, with PS/PS2 launching early both those gens) as the early successor for Sega's failed Saturn about 4 years after it (like the Switch launched about 4 years after Wii U). So Dreamcast was either gonna be in the Saturn/PS1/N64 generation or the Xbox/GC/PS2 generation, not a generation of its own, as my question points out. So yes, very relevant, truthful, and accurate. Thanks.

And you still don't explain why a Switch 2 won't be part of its own gen 11 coming out years after your gen 10 even though you gave Switch its own gen for coming out years after gen 8. You have no consistency with future declaration of gens (Switch 2) or past accepted definitions of gens (Dreamcast).

The arguments against what you say are already written in the post you quoted and I won't repeat it.



colafitte on 11 January 2020

Not in a million years.....Never, Jamais, Nunca, .....

Let's see first if the console can reach 100M.



Ljink96 on 11 January 2020

Yeah, the poll has spoken. Pretty much never. PS4 is more than likely going to hit 120M+ easy. Microsoft lost their edge and their loss was Sony's gain this generation. Switch, I have been saying for a while, I expect Switch to end up at around 85-100M. Really depends on when Nintendo plans to introduce a successor. I think they'll do so in late 2022 or early 2023.

Although aligned sales are promising at this time for Switch, I don't think the library will be able to push it past PS4. 

Last edited by Ljink96 - on 11 January 2020