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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

 

Price, SKUs, specs ?

Only Base Model, $399, 9-10TF GPU, 16GB RAM 24 30.00%
 
Only Base Model, $449, 10-12TF GPU, 16GB RAM 13 16.25%
 
Only Base Model, $499, 12-14TF GPU, 24GB RAM 21 26.25%
 
Base Model $399 and PREMIUM $499 specs Ans3 10 12.50%
 
Base Mod $399 / PREM $549, >14TF 24GB RAM 5 6.25%
 
Base Mod $449 / PREM $599, the absolute Elite 7 8.75%
 
Total:80
CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

GDDR5 ram is pretty much impossible. That will ensure a bandwidth bottleneck right out the gate. 

16GB of GDDR6 with a 256bit bus is actually the easiest and most straight forward thing they could do with regards to RAM upgrades. And will cost about 30% more than it cost sony today for 8GB of GDDR5. But I think thats the minimum to expect. I expect the consoles will have 24GB of RAM. The ease to implement and overall benefits are just too great to ignore. Mind you this will be going with a set-up similar to what the XB1X had in 2017 but with GDDR6 as oppsed to GDDR5.

There is no way they are putting in a 4TB 2.5" HDD that would probably cost them around $50 at OEM pricing. If they are going to spend that much then they will  go with a 1TB SSD instead Again the benefits of having every console having an SSD and what that means for devs are to much too ignore. Especially when you consider they will be lading 16GB worth of assets this time around versus 5GB. Besides, having support for external drives on day one will be a given.

And this premium launch console thing...... I think people are going to be surprised.

In my own personal opinion, I don't think they can.... Only way MS makes a "premium" console is if sony makes a $400 console. What i think will happen is that sony will make a $550 to $600 that they will sell for $499. This doesn't give MS a lot of room to do much better so MS will match it the best way it can. Think of these as the 4k consoles.

Now the difference is that MS will also make a cheaper console. With the same CPU but much weaker GPU and about 25% less RAM. Call this the 1080p console and that console will be at least $100 cheaper. Funny thing is it could even do this while using the same APU designed for the $500 SKU. But the thing is...... so could sony.



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Intrinsic said:
CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

GDDR5 ram is pretty much impossible. That will ensure a bandwidth bottleneck right out the gate. 

16GB of GDDR6 with a 256bit bus is actually the easiest and most straight forward thing they could do with regards to RAM upgrades. And will cost about 30% more than it cost sony today for 8GB of GDDR5. But I think thats the minimum to expect. I expect the consoles will have 24GB of RAM. The ease to implement and overall benefits are just too great to ignore. Mind you this will be going with a set-up similar to what the XB1X had in 2017 but with GDDR6 as oppsed to GDDR5.

There is no way they are putting in a 4TB 2.5" HDD that would probably cost them around $50 at OEM pricing. If they are going to spend that much then they will  go with a 1TB SSD instead Again the benefits of having every console having an SSD and what that means for devs are to much too ignore. Especially when you consider they will be lading 16GB worth of assets this time around versus 5GB. Besides, having support for external drives on day one will be a given.

And this premium launch console thing...... I think people are going to be surprised.

In my own personal opinion, I don't think they can.... Only way MS makes a "premium" console is if sony makes a $400 console. What i think will happen is that sony will make a $550 to $600 that they will sell for $499. This doesn't give MS a lot of room to do much better so MS will match it the best way it can. Think of these as the 4k consoles.

Now the difference is that MS will also make a cheaper console. With the same CPU but much weaker GPU and about 25% less RAM. Call this the 1080p console and that console will be at least $100 cheaper. Funny thing is it could even do this while using the same APU designed for the $500 SKU. But the thing is...... so could sony.

Yep it's better to have an internal SSD of 512MB or 1GB and a very clever management of memory for your external HDD (so it can have what is needed to run the games you are using more recent) is a lot better than 4 or higher internal HDD.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CGI-Quality said:
I can't believe some of you think they'll just throw 1TB SSDs in these things, but then, some of you also expect 32GB consoles. :P Also, you can't call anything a 'bottleneck' without knowing the entirety of the technology that's going into the chassis.

Regardless, Pem and I have done our best, so there's not really much else to argue. We'll just wait for the first specs to start being revealed later this year.

SSD isn't really needed with consoles. They boot up fast enough from regular harddrives. A PC on the other hand can take forever to boot up. 



I hope RAM prices go back to normal until then. 16GB of DDR5 for gaming would be nice.



CGI-Quality said:
OttoniBastos said:
I hope RAM prices go back to normal until then. 16GB of DDR5 for gaming would be nice.

I'm assuming you meant this and are referring to System RAM.

 

Yes! I'm talking about normal RAM,not the GDDR type used on GPUs. Do you think Sony is more likely to go for GDDR6 since they used GDDR on PS4?

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CGI-Quality said:
I can't believe some of you think they'll just throw 1TB SSDs in these things, but then, some of you also expect 32GB consoles. :P Also, you can't call anything a 'bottleneck' without knowing the entirety of the technology that's going into the chassis.

Regardless, Pem and I have done our best, so there's not really much else to argue. We'll just wait for the first specs to start being revealed later this year.

not saying I believe they will put a 1TB SSD. I said it would be more beneficial to have 512MB-1GB of SSD than 4 TB of HDD as internal storage.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Come on, guys. Mass market pricing will always be a priority. I'd be surprised if it costs more than $399.

The CPU, GPU and RAM will target two standards: 4K30 and 1080p60. This should be possible at that price point, end of next year.



e=mc^2

Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

BraLoD said:
DonFerrari said:

It is sweet spot based on anecdotes. X1 launched for 499 and after the first couple months it died out until the price cut and removal of peripheral. For a economy like USA 599 is little money, still the price to market that will have the sales starting high is 399 as proved through time. Would PS5 sell a lot at 499? Maybe, and only if Xbox is similar priced or much worse. And I doubt both. So if Sony put it at 499, they will have to cut price to fast, because only enthusiast will rush to buy it like that. They may enter another PS3 situation.

As much as we like to mock PS3 launching for 599, there was a 499 model as well, and it also had slow start.

XBO price point was bad because of what it packed.

It was pricer and less powerful than the direct competition because of a freaking pack in product nobody needed/wanted, plus all that DRM bullshit it pulled before launch. XBO had a damn lot of reasons to be ignored in favour of its direct competition.

As CGI doesn't want to, do you want to make a friendly bet over the price announcement then?

I say 499 you say 399, and we fix some small prank to the loser, like I making you use a LoD avatar for a month and you making me use one you want me to.

I'm very confident PS5 price will be higher than 399.

  With PS4, Sony really wanted to go as easy and safe as possible, after some issues they had with PS3.  At this point, I would just secure the Playstation ecosystem, make PS5 backwards compatible, and make a powerful and balanced system, at a price in the $399-449$ range.   I'm not sure a higher price would be a clever move, unless they release 2 SKUs, so the BASE would cost $399-$449, and a Premium $499-$549, in order to "battle" with Anaconda, or even beat it.

 Off topic, about the amount of RAM, which seems to be an hot topic, I feel that Sony are not gonna be so stingy, as going from gen to gen, the increase of RAM was always very generous.  From PS3 to PS4 the increase was 16X : can we expect a 2X only from PS4 to PS5 ?   I myself said 16GB for a base model, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sony opt for more RAM in the end.

 



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Leak from a member at Beyond3d; same happened when first specs of WiiU were leaked.

""PS5 dev kits in the wild and i've some good news for you
System will be revealed close to E3 2019 in Sony's Special event with some mind-blowing tech demos and a few megatons and a release date for Q1-Q2 2020! The Last of Us Part 2's motion matching in 4K 60fps is a joy to watch!
Specifications:
CPU: 8Core/16Threads at 3.2Ghz (boost) Zen2 (this is the biggest improvement we've ever seen CPU-wise, even bigger than PS2 to PS3)
GPU: Fully NAVI-Based GPU with some AMD's next generation arch features at 12.6tf to 14.2tf (GPU clock still undecided)
Memory: 24GB - 20GB GDDR6 at 880Gb/s - 4GB DDR4 reserved for OS
2tb HDD""

https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/next-generation-hardware-speculation-with-a-technical-spin-2019.61027/page-34#post-2058510

Holy crap this is exactly the "option3" I put in the Poll...guys I really can't wait for an official announcement !



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

DonFerrari said:
TranceformerFX said:

Yeah. I'm betting 8GB will be dedicated for video games, and the other 8GB will be dedicated to the Operating System/Console features. Which will be great news for developers and users alike.

I'm also hoping that the PS5 controllers support USB-C ports/quick charging, external hard drive support right out the gate, and consistent "true" HDR output to ALL compatible TV's. (none of that boosted contrast or washed out flat colors bullshit)

the bad colors is totally fault of the developers. The systems are totally compatible with HDR (at least I know PS4 even base is) with small extra cost on processing.

And I would really be displeased if they put half their RAM for OS. For me I would have 0 issue with they using the 16GB for gaming and no OS at all =p ... but since we need to have OS so either 16GB for games and a 4GB for RAM (different memories and prices for what each needs), or 12+4 on a single type of RAM total 16GB.

Not a chance in hell. The base PS4 uses 4GB for it's OS & functionality and still has issues with certain features loading quickly/efficiently.

The PS4 also uses the other 3 (1 in reserve) for it's video games, so the PS5 using 8GB this time around will give developers a little over double RAM  to work with compared to the PS4.

Your notion that they need 16GB for development is really silly...