By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

zorg1000 on 18 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
p0isonparadise said:

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

 

zorg1000 said:

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

I just told someone who had a 110m prediction their numbers are looking too high.

And I'm not lambasting/mocking him for predicting 3DS level sales, I'm debating with him. He agreed with me that Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years and I've been trying to explain to him that it would have to have one of, if not the worst decline in console history to fall behind after that point.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
Agente42 on 18 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
StarDoor said:

> Breath of the Wild becomes best-selling Zelda
> Odyssey becomes the best-selling 3D Mario
> Smash Ultimate becomes the best-selling Smash
> "Clearly, it's the third-party ports that are driving Switch's success."

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms.

 

and not determine success as well, as in Xbox One, Sega Saturn and Psvita. All consoles packed with third party games.



Agente42 on 18 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

I would incentive you to go on WiiU predictions thread and pick every single poster that predicted over 15M and list then for these 2 fine folks to evaluate.

Lol.... haven`t got that kinda energy. Don't have anything to prove t them anyways.

7 years of good support? All portable and stationary nintendo ips? I believe, if nintendo screw up the console, 75 millions. The best case scenariois 135-155 millions.



DonFerrari on 18 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

 

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

Naaa man thats not how this works. They wouldn't be saying anything if i predicted 140M for the switch. And all thse that predicted the switch would outsell the PS4 this year have also somehow gone silent. And the funny thing is that as early as feb this year I had already changed my initial "pre release" prediction.

I'm certainly on it.

Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

I would incentive you to go on WiiU predictions thread and pick every single poster that predicted over 15M and list then for these 2 fine folks to evaluate.

Lol.... haven`t got that kinda energy. Don't have anything to prove t them anyways.

You have to prove "you can be taken seriously".

p0isonparadise said:
DonFerrari said:

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

100 million? No. 250 million? Get a sense of humor, Don. 

What humor is in offending other members of the site?

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

I just told someone who had a 110m prediction their numbers are looking too high.

And I'm not lambasting/mocking him for predicting 3DS level sales, I'm debating with him. He agreed with me that Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years and I've been trying to explain to him that it would have to have one of, if not the worst decline in console history to fall behind after that point.

And did you made with the same kind of remarks and adjectives you took with Intrisic? Have gone to look other posts to make fun? Called them any names for making a prediction that doesn't seem likely? Or just said it "looked too high"?

Because I have seem more than just debating here.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

3sexty on 18 December 2018

Alright here's what I think. There is no way Switch is going to reach anything greater than 60 million on the basis that within a couple of years we will have far more powerful consoles on the market at competitive prices and fans will quickly learn that the Switch won't be the go to for everyday gaming. It will howwever be relegated to a hand held device but that will have its limitations as mobile gaming on smart phones will have achieved incredible advances by that stage. The decline will be sudden and unexpected.. Mark my word... The perceived power deficiency will become a factor sooner than later.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

Around the Network
zorg1000 on 18 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
Intrinsic said:

Naaa man thats not how this works. They wouldn't be saying anything if i predicted 140M for the switch. And all thse that predicted the switch would outsell the PS4 this year have also somehow gone silent. And the funny thing is that as early as feb this year I had already changed my initial "pre release" prediction.

I'm certainly on it.

Intrinsic said:

Lol.... haven`t got that kinda energy. Don't have anything to prove t them anyways.

You have to prove "you can be taken seriously".

p0isonparadise said:

100 million? No. 250 million? Get a sense of humor, Don. 

What humor is in offending other members of the site?

zorg1000 said:

I just told someone who had a 110m prediction their numbers are looking too high.

And I'm not lambasting/mocking him for predicting 3DS level sales, I'm debating with him. He agreed with me that Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years and I've been trying to explain to him that it would have to have one of, if not the worst decline in console history to fall behind after that point.

And did you made with the same kind of remarks and adjectives you took with Intrisic? Have gone to look other posts to make fun? Called them any names for making a prediction that doesn't seem likely? Or just said it "looked too high"?

Because I have seem more than just debating here.

You must be mistaking me with others, I didnt pull up anyone's older posts, someone else did that and I dont recall calling anyone names in this thread. On top of that the person never responded after I said their numbers looked high so the discussion ended then and there.

Next time get your facts straight before trying to call people out.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Agente42 on 18 December 2018
SpokenTruth said:
3sexty said:
Alright here's what I think. There is no way Switch is going to reach anything greater than 60 million on the basis that within a couple of years we will have far more powerful consoles on the market at competitive prices and fans will quickly learn that the Switch won't be the go to for everyday gaming. It will howwever be relegated to a hand held device but that will have its limitations as mobile gaming on smart phones will have achieved incredible advances by that stage. The decline will be sudden and unexpected.. Mark my word... The perceived power deficiency will become a factor sooner than later.

It was out powered the day it launched.  Do you not realize it is the software driving its sales?


I don't care how powerful a smartphone is, it's the games. 

 A game console is just a box people buy in order to play video games.



flashfire926 on 18 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
p0isonparadise said:

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

 

zorg1000 said:

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

Cause unlike the 35-40 million prediction, 100 million is actually somewhat likely and very well could happen.

And nobody said 250M outside of maybe jokes.

edit: though we're not lambasting anyone, just having a laugh. Before Switch's launch I predicted just 25 million too.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

PortisheadBiscuit on 18 December 2018
3sexty said:
Alright here's what I think. There is no way Switch is going to reach anything greater than 60 million on the basis that within a couple of years we will have far more powerful consoles on the market at competitive prices and fans will quickly learn that the Switch won't be the go to for everyday gaming. It will howwever be relegated to a hand held device but that will have its limitations as mobile gaming on smart phones will have achieved incredible advances by that stage. The decline will be sudden and unexpected.. Mark my word... The perceived power deficiency will become a factor sooner than 

PS4/Pro and Switch are easily dominating the much more powerful XB1X, clearly specs alone do not drive sales.



DonFerrari on 18 December 2018
flashfire926 said:
DonFerrari said:

 

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

Cause unlike the 35-40 million prediction, 100 million is actually somewhat likely and very well could happen.

And nobody said 250M outside of maybe jokes.

edit: though we're not lambasting anyone, just having a laugh. Before Switch's launch I predicted just 25 million too.

I put 100 and 250 but you know there are plenty of predictions in between.

And not everyone is making jokes when predicting very high numbers.

Also, there are people making fun to the point saying someone isn't credible because 3 years ago that person made a low prediction. You would probably be put together with then.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."