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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Nate4Drake on 15 December 2018
MasonADC said:
Even with the next gen consoles, don't forget that the Switch will also be getting third party exclusives

Let's try to be realist; PS5 and Next XBox specs will be mindblowing, light years beyond Switch, simply on another planet.  3rd Party support will be very poor, sadly.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

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MasonADC on 15 December 2018
Nate4Drake said:
MasonADC said:
Even with the next gen consoles, don't forget that the Switch will also be getting third party exclusives

Let's try to be realist; PS5 and Next XBox specs will be mindblowing, light years beyond Switch, simply on another planet.  3rd Party support will be very poor, sadly.

It's a good thing I said exclusive...Switch will be by far the market leader in Japan by the time, Japanese third parties will have some exclusives for it



JSG87 on 15 December 2018
PhatChips said:
Awesome to see Xbox outselling switch in the US

 

The only way xbox is outselling Switch is in LTD sales in the US which is obviously what happens when you release a console 4 years after its competition has been on sale.



Intrinsic on 15 December 2018
flashfire926 said:

Doesnt matter. Still gonna reach 80 million without a doubt. I'll bet on it. Its tracking ahead of the 3DS by a good margin, and will never fall behind it, so it get to 80M off that alone.

Yes motion control is what sold the wii. However it was pushed by nintendo's games itself. Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mariokart, Smash Brawl, Galaxy, etc. Wii Sports and Fit in particular, the wii wouldnt have been such a success without them.

Wii U was horribly botched with bad marketing and a confusing name that made it seem like some tablet add-on. It didnt help the casual market migrated to mobile, either.

The difference with the Switch is that we're seeing a unified first party that when are combined, can absolutely do 80 million without a doubt. Keep in mind this is the first home console with mainline pokemon on it, something that will sell north of 15 million copies (we just saw a taste of whats to come with lets go). 

First I will like to thank you for speaking objectively. This is a very touchy subject to most people. 

With the Wii.... yes nintendo made games for it. As they d fr all their platforms. But it sold primarily for motion controls. And primarily to the casual crowd. And alt of companies not just nintendo tried to partake of that crowd.

A troubling thing however is if you look at the overall game output of nintendo platforms. This ca usually be tied directly to how successful they were. eg...

DS had 4000 games. 3DS had 1700.

Wii had  2800 games. WiiU had 367.

To put it into perspective every console that has old upwards of 80M has had more than 1000 games made for it. With the best consoles havin as much as 2500+ games made for it.

This is the basis of my argument as to why i say the NS cannot do this on the back of nintendo software alone. Right now the NS is at round 100 games.



JSG87 on 15 December 2018
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:
LTD 21 months
PS4-8.38
XBO-7.66
NSW-8.73
3DS-6.40

Wow, those numbers prove to me that PS4+XBO are more impressive than what Switch is doing, or that Switch is not that impressive as you could think. Let me explain:

1. PS4 and XBO launched at the same time at way higher prices, fighting for the same kind of cosumer (COD, NBA2K, FIFA, BF, .....)

2. XBO had to fight against its own annoucement disaster.

3. Both had to fight too against their own previous consoles because during 2014, a lot of games still had a lot of sales on X360 and PS3.

4. I can only think about one new game with huge sales and 90+ metacritic in that period of time in XBO and PS4, being The Witcher III. And probably GTA V and TLOU Remastered were the best games on PS4 prior to that, both games from the previous gen.

5. Meanwhile, Switch probably had the best 12, 18, 21 first months of a new console ever, launching with a GOTY game, a Mario Kart game, a Super Mario 3D game, a huge recent new IP in Splatoon 2, all in a period of less than 9 months, and in the next 12, Switch launched new Pokemon and Smash (being this one probably the most succesful Nintendo game ever at launch) games. Nintendo went all in, and did their best possible. Compare that to Microsoft and Sony 1st party exclusive during the same period....no contest.

5. Both consoles used its launch months during holiday season so they wasted that, selling everything they couldp've roduced during a period used to buy products and gifts. In my opinion, launching in March, like Nintendo did with Swith, is way better to have better sales during its first 12 months, because at launch, if you produce 2M, 3M consoles all of them are going to be sold quickly, and then you have the holiday season months after to have another huge amount of sales.

 

So, despite all of this, Switch with its best 1st party lineup ever, is barealy ahead of both PS4 and XBO in USA. It is accepted that the first 20 months of PS4 were poor, with the "PS4 has no games" tagline. At the end of the day, poor PS4 first two years equally the same than best 2 first years of any Nintendo console ever in relation to sales . That's why i think Switch won't come close to Wii in lifetime sales. Wii in the same period just had way more sales than Switch. I won't be surprised if the best years of Switch in the end are cosnidered its two or three first years..., like what happened to N64 and Wii. That's why i think Switch after 2019 wil start a decline in sales (if it doesn't happen already in 2019).

I want to add, that Switch numbers are very good, is just that Switch is considered like something historical in most gaming forums when at the moment still has not been that yet, just saying that.

 

At the end there you do say that Switch numbers are good but I'd classify them as great. It's beating xbox & ps4 which even if you don't find it impressive is still impressive considering where their consoles are now.

 

Switch doesn't even get half the 3Rd party support that those two consoled get so saying that the sales aren't that impressive when Nintendo is doing the majority of these sales off their own back, is just stupid.



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colafitte on 15 December 2018
zorg1000 said:

So you think Switch will only sell as much as 3DS despite handily outperforming it thus far?

I do believe Switch will end around 80-85M in its lifetime too, 10M+ more than 3DS is something on par at the perfomance of Switch compared to 3DS. To be precise, by my own calculations i expect Switch to be around 75M by the end of 2022, which i consider a success because Switch is not able to run most 3rd Party AAA and because this time will have a huge online service payment that will compensate by far any less sales compared to previous gens.



JSG87 on 15 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
colafitte said:

He has the right to not like what was said about him here, but he had no right to insult every member of this forum for something EVERY GAMING FORUM can be accused of. It was totally inapropiate, and if i dare to say, in a very coward manner, using a way more popular forum to put people against this forum. He probably doesn't like to fight their numbers against VGC because it goes against his interests for his twiter account popularity, and he knows his numbers are more close to the official numbers, so he is more reliable to get real numbers (most people here agree on that), but VGC never lied about its numbers. VGC numbers are not official, they're just the work of using current info to bring a closer aproximation of what the actual numbers of gaming sales are. VGC makes continually adjustments to get close to official data every time now and then. No one here says that you have to trust VGC numbers against any other media or info available for gaming selling numbers.

And VGC forums, and its members have way more and better discussions about sales that what i see in other sites. VGC doesn't deserve such behavior from NPD leakers or other gaming forum members. Mat Piscatella and Benji are very valuable posters in Resetera, but they not only give numbers, they give opinions too. So, the moment they start doing that, people will react always. Compared to ZhugeEX, he express his opinions in forums at a minimum giving mostly only facts and numbers, so almost nobody discuss anything he says. That's how gaming forum works. They're going to be always people that are against what you said or think, and if they're not...., well, it doesn't talk very well about diverstiy of opinions and free speech then.

Very well said. Agree completely.

Of all the number posters my all time favorite and still my favorite has been ZhugeEX. Thats how you do it. He says what he has to say and keeps it to the facts of it. No one has ever argued with him. These other numbers leakers are really just entitled brats if you ask me. And thrive in communities like Gaf and Era because those communities have a hive mentality. Its almost like talking to a forum of one. And I don't think thats healthy. And mind you.... I am a member of Era. Never posted n there though. 

Benji was never on my radar until now and for the wrong reasons..... if you don't want what you say to be challenged? Then keep your mouth shut.

And this is why I like VGC...... its a sesspool of very opinionated people and while we get extremes of it atimes thats pretty normal. The mods keep things civil but all opinions no matter how ridiculous are allowed to be expressed here. Anyone can be called out. No exceptions. 

 

DonFerrari said:
I'm laughing with the gloom and doom for PS4 and X1, how much doom reaching 100M is?
Also 25M sales for Switch in 2019 is something very hard to achieve.
Plus December will be funny to see when we have predictions of Switch under 1.4 and over 2M... one of those can be very wrong.

This year the switch is going to do around 16M at best. Which is great but a far cry from then going on to do 25M in sales the next year. Its currently at 11M s its even generous saying it will sell 5M consoles in the last 5 weeks of 2018. I dont know how some in the ninty camp see these things or if they are mixing up shipped and sold numbers.. but whatever it is its just unrealistic.  

Can they do 18M or even 19M in sales next year? Absolutely and more in line with what I would expect... but 20M and up is very unrealistic to me. I am very very very curious to know what people feel the sales drivers are going to be to make it go from a 15M -16M year to a 20M - 25M year though. 

 

I think the poster before you might have been referring to FY sales;



zorg1000 on 15 December 2018
Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

I'm not sure how that's relevant to my post.

I clearly said ignoring AAA ports, and started a new conversation with the rest of your post...

So what determines the success/ failure of Nintendo platforms? Clearly it is games, and without AAA ports then we have original ip, Nintendo games and Nintendo support. If we are left with that then Nintendo has to keep on supporting.

Ok I get what you are saying now. I dont know if Nintendo will support Switch 4.5 years from now or not but here is the Nintendo lineup for 3DS in 2017 (7th year on market).

Tank Troopers (eShop)

Yoshi & Poochy's Woolly World

Mario Sports Superstars

Bye-Bye Boxboy (eShop)

Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valencia

Ever Oasis

Miitopia

Hey! Pikmin

Metroid: Samus Returns

Mario & Luigi Superstar Saga+Bowser's Minions

Fire Emblem Warriors

Mario Party: The Top 100

Style Savvy: Shining Star (eShop)

Pokemon Ultra Sun & Ultra Moon

 

I dont think we should be concerned about Nintendo support.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

JSG87 on 15 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

He is right thought, US was always strongest market for Nintendo same like Europe was for Sony, Switch has good chances beating PS4 in US at end, for now they are selling very similar in US for same time period.

But he`s not right. He actually couldn't be more wrong if he tried. And you will be very wrong too especially with a claim like that.

Since the PS1 nintendo has never won the US market. The only exception to this was with the PS3/Wii generation and even then it didn't win NA. The 360 did. So what claim exactly does anyone have to say NA is its strongest market? Absolutely none. Especially liken it t sonys dominance in EU? Ridiculous.

Sony has NEVER not won the EU market. From the PS1 all the way to the PS4. 

Sony has won the NA market 3 times out of 4 and when it lost it it lost it t the XB not nintendo. 

So really how or n what grounds is NA nintendos strongest market the same way EU is sonys strongest market when in 4 generations nintendo has never won in NA or EU? 

The simple truth of the matter is that Japan is nintendos best claim for a strongest market and even that is debatable because its obvious japan is home console resistant and prefer their handhelds. Case in point the wii only beating the PS3 by 2M in japan and japan only account for 12M f the Wiis 100M sales.

 

USA is clearly Nintendos strongest market because that specific Parker is where they sell the most Consoles regardless of what company sells more.



Intrinsic on 15 December 2018
zorg1000 said:

So you think Switch will only sell as much as 3DS despite handily outperforming it thus far?

Yes. I think it will sell really well for about 3 to 4 years. But then those sales will crash because at that point every major IP would already have an iteration on the switch and any sequel will not move as many consoles. As is the case with every IP ever.

My reasoning is that nintendo IP alone can't drive sales like that. Especially when you consider most of those IPs come in 2019 and 2020. 

And 70M to 80M is by no means a poor showing. 

I just do not see the NS as a 100M selling console. It takes a lot of special to hit hat mark.