I would put Forza in the 12,000-15,000 catagory. I'm just wondering how in the WORLD Test Drive Unlimited could have a shot at out-selling Forza for opening week. Yes, I know TDU was launched @ golden week, but dang it. It's like asking how Super Mario Galaxy could get outsold by Tomb Raider Anninversary. It should move 4k h/w units similar to what AC4 did. Obviously not where the 360 needs to go, but good enough. The real test will be how well it holds. Do games typically launch on Tuesdays in Japan? IMO, I'd see Forza as a game that hopefully has legs. With TB launching (as already said), I would think Forza could do 5k second week, then bounce upto 7.5k or so and have a good, slow, long run. Blue Dragon did it. It's got about 2.5x the sales since it launched, which is ultra-rare for a RPG in Japan.

dont diss Tomb Raider, that game rocks :p imo way more fun than any recent mario game... (the early ones still kick ass though)

I'm not dissing Tomb Raider. I'm buying TR:A on launch day. My girlfriend is a rabid fan of the series. But again, my whole point is that even if TR:A is a fun game, there's no way it'd sell the kind of units a numbered, full-fledged mario game would. Thats the same situation Forza is in. It's a fantastic game, should launch with 10x that sales, but isn't. However, it should easily do 1m+ in the US and Europe each.