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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won April NPD ( PS4 > NSW > XBO)

CosmicSex on 18 May 2018
kirby007 said:
zorg1000 said:
Here are the North America estimates from this site

PS4-315k
NSW-270k
XBO-220k

Now thats North America while NPD is for United States so lets assume USA is ~85% of NA than we are looking at this

PS4-~270k
NSW-~230k
XBO-~185k

So ps4 50k lower on vgc and switch 60k higher on vgc xbox 50k higher on vgc aswell if we go ny theb85% estimate

I predicted 

PS4: 295k
Switch: 189k
Xbox: 155k

Whoever thought that the Switch and would be over 200k or within 50k of PS4 is insane.  Even I child I feel could have figured out that you just can't base everything off of your 'feelings'.  It doesn't work like that.   First of all, this is APRIL we are talking about.  Sony just had a huge release with a console bundle tie-in.  I knew 295k was being conservative. But I knew better than to put the Switch and Xbox above 200k.  I though Xbox might get a boost from some deal I thought but of course Switch is going to be down YoY.  I mean come on.  Nothing is releasing for it.  If it was like Pokemon month or something like that then its different, but in America, people don't just buy something because it is Nintendo, Sony or Microsoft.  



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CosmicSex on 18 May 2018

BTW. Does anyone have a quick tally of NPD 1st 2nd and 3rd finishers for 2018?



zorg1000 on 18 May 2018
CosmicSex said:
BTW. Does anyone have a quick tally of NPD 1st 2nd and 3rd finishers for 2018?

YTD
PS4: ~1.3M (+7%)
NSW: ~1.03M (-13%)
XB1: ~980K (+34%)



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic on 18 May 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

Sure, nothing wrong with doubting 20m but its silly to doubt it based solely on 1 month of sales.

Not really. imagine if switch did 300k this month, people out look on 20 million would be way more likely wouldn't you agree? each month is a indicator where the market is going. plus like another person pointed out this is the 4th month of the year and we are looking at a trend. honestly labo could have been a difference  maker, it could have been a huge hit nobody really knew till now with such a unique product from nintendo.

I don't think you get how these shipment estimate things work.

Nintendo says they are gonna ship 20M for the fiscal years starting apr 1st 2018 and ending march 31st 2019. That does not mean they plan on selling 20M consoles. They could even very well expect to sell 17.5M consoles and have around 2.5M in the channels then ship very little units in the first quater of the start of the next fiscal year. 

JRPGfan said:
Symbios63 said:
This is an amazing result for the first full month of my NPD predicting tool !

Tool result for april : 1) PS4 : 716.6 points/day (1.0) ; 2) NS : 359.3 points/day (0.50) ; 3) XBO : 242.8 points/day (0.34)
NPD Results : 1) PS4 : 326k (1.0) ; 2) NS : 171k (0.52) ; 3) XBO : 134k (0.41)

I was not expecting to be that close. Well, it may be pure luck well but this is an encouraging start.

Here is the thread for those who might be interested :

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=235297&page=1

Holy crap it works :) well done Symbios.

Now we just need it to work about 5 more times in say over 7 NPDs then we can really say it works. Good start though.



Farsala on 18 May 2018
zorg1000 said:
Miyamotoo said:

How much PS4 sold in its 2nd April?

~175k

Regardless if it's Switch or PS4, 175k is pretty dreadful. Especially if the console is expected to sell a ton.

Because the sales were so poor for PS4 in its 2nd April it even lost the month to XB1. While we didn't expect Switch to beat PS4 with GoW month, I personally expected 200k+.

All 3 consoles exceeded my expectations last month, but only PS4 did that this month. PS4 might be strongly up YoY in US, but its probably down YoY  for everywhere else leading to Sony's expectations of lower shipments.



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The_Liquid_Laser on 18 May 2018

Seems like Switch and XB1 are in steady decline. PS4 on the other hand got a huge boost from GoW. So I think most of the sales gap between the consoles is from GoW driving PS4 sales way up. Although that doesn't change the fact that Switch and XB1 are steadily declining and need some good games to turn things around for them.



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CosmicSex on 18 May 2018
zorg1000 said:
CosmicSex said:
BTW. Does anyone have a quick tally of NPD 1st 2nd and 3rd finishers for 2018?

YTD
PS4: ~1.3M (+7%)
NSW: ~1.03M (-13%)
XB1: ~980K (+34%)

Thanks.  I mean tally of placement but this is also very helpful.  Thanks!



CosmicSex on 18 May 2018
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Seems like Switch and XB1 are in steady decline. PS4 on the other hand got a huge boost from GoW. So I think most of the sales gap between the consoles is from GoW driving PS4 sales way up. Although that doesn't change the fact that Switch and XB1 are steadily declining and need some good games to turn things around for them.

Not really.  If you look at prior Aprils, it was obvious that Switch would have a decline do to last year being so close to launch, but even then, it didn't break 300K because April isn't that kind of month usually.  Xbox One has had worse Aprils as well so its all relative.  I think they both did average. 



Megiddo on 18 May 2018

So yeah, per the same thread. Labo missed retailer expectations by a wide margin. That's not good.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/april-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-may-15th.40837/page-11#post-8065382



PortisheadBiscuit on 18 May 2018
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Seems like Switch and XB1 are in steady decline. PS4 on the other hand got a huge boost from GoW. So I think most of the sales gap between the consoles is from GoW driving PS4 sales way up. Although that doesn't change the fact that Switch and XB1 are steadily declining and need some good games to turn things around for them.

One low month for Switch means steady decline? Ooooookay...