If the rest of the game maintains the quality of the first three hours, I truly think it’s possible GoW can sell as much as 15 mill LT. It sounds crazy, but there are several reasons why I believe this:

1. Ps4 has proven to be a powerhouse for software, and that actually includes its exclusives as well. The great majority of ps4 exclusives find success.

2. There have been numerous times people have doubted that a ps4 exclusive could sell as much as it did. The best and most recent examples are Uncharted 4 and Horizon ZD. Nearly everyone thought 10 mill was impossible for U4, but it’ll probably end up with around 12 mill LT at this point (and this is compared to around 6 million sales for U2/3 on ps3). Same thing for Horizon:  a very select few agreed that HZD had the potential to sell 8 mill LT. Most thought it was asinine, and there were people laughing at and mocking the notion. Yet, it nearly did 8 mill in its first year. As a new IP.

3. Past Mainline GoW games sold well (GoW 3 likely between 5 and 6 mill), and this was against a lot of odds:

—A. A large audience of people was neglected due to the excessive—and to many, distasteful—violence, the nudity/sex scenes, and the frustratingly one-note nature of Kratos. These things significantly inhibited it’s ability to have mainstream appeal and success (yet it STILL sold really well). The new GoW, however, has seemed to address/improve these things (not sure about the nudity). I’ve seen numerous people say this will be their first GoW game. I’ve never bought a GoW game, but I actually have this one preordered.

—B. This might be controversial, but I feel as though GoW 3’s combat/playstyle was somewhat outdated (namely the camera) at the time when it released. The new GoW is fresh and current.

—C. God of War was only a truly strong seller in North America, and that was despite PS3 selling fairly weakly there. PS4, however, has turned things around significantly in North America. 

—D. In the same vein, God of War never sold gangbuster numbers in Europe (VGC has GoW 3 at 1.35 mill); however, I think the new GoW will     be much more attractive to Europeans (and the rest of the world, for that matter) due to the changes that have been made. I don’t have much to back this up, but there is just generally a much broader appeal for this game than past entries (see point A). Weak example, but I listened to two Brits talk about their experience with the 3 hr preview, and they seemed as—if not even more—excited than the other the people I heard talk about it. 

4. One of the most important factors:  The previews for the first 3 hours have been universally positive. I don’t think I heard a single negative or complaint mentioned from any of the previewers. I can’t think of another game that received that much praise from previews other than Zelda and possibly Mario.

5. This will be a moot point to some people, but it’s selling well on Amazon. I followed HZD on Amazon about a month before release. Seeing how well it was doing in the top 100, even weeks from release, made me believe it was gonna be big (and it was). Well, GoW is doing better than HZD did. Horizon was #31 in January 2017, and it did not show up in the Dec or Nov 2016 top 100s (tho, that was tougher competition). GoW is so far at #14 and #48 for March with a day left; was #33 in February; and was #42 and #48 in January. And currently GoW has moved down to #9 on the hourlies—3wks from release. (EDIT: it’s also #11, #33, #36, and #38 for Gamestop. Not sure which list is right for Best Buy) GoW does have a bit of an advantage in that it got a boost from the release date announcement a couple months ago.

EDIT/UPDATE:  

6. The reviews are phenomenally good, making it the best scoring non-remake/remaster of the entire PS4/XBO gen. 

Nah, I don't see it doing that much, God of War III made it to around 5 million, and I think this can do better, so I think it will be at 8 million. However, 11 million seems like the ceiling to me, and 13-15 million just seems too high.

I see no way it will do that much. I say more realistic approach is 7-9 million. I don't think HZD does the game any favors in comparison as its a new IP,so people see that as a fresh new idea. Wheras GOW is an established franchise with polarizing changes to its formula that seems to be getting long time fan backlash due to the changes.

either way its still going to be the best selling game in its series

Prediction: 7 million.

Expecting big numbers for this one judging by YouTube views.

I believe it will be between 8m~10m lifetime, so I put 7m~9m in the poll.

I think it will have an awesome start, like selling 5m on its first quarter, maybe even 6m, and while I see it having good legs, I don't think it will be Gran Turismo or Animal Crossing style. So I think anything more than 12m is just too much honestly.

7-9 will be nice. its possible tho so many titles coming out this year and next one. especially RDR. 10+ will be hard

if it hits 5m in vgchartz. its safe to assume its 9m + with digital+ and all the sales that the website doesn't catch.  a lot of Sony games get undertracked here usually because of digital sales 

I think the newest GoW is likely to be the best selling title in the franchise, but I think 13-15 mil seems a lil too optimistic to me, considering the sales of the previous titles. I think it'll likely land around 9-10 mil LT.

The chance is always there, but I'm a bit doubtful of sales that high.

I hope so because it's a really beautiful series despite all the violence and gore.

any one comparing GOW PS3 sales with.. PS4 is a moot point.. During PS3 days Sony's marketing machine was pathetic compared to PS4's.. almost every exclusive suffered on PS3 due that.. God of War PS4 is every where, even here in India I over heard my co-workers talk about the game and how they are planning to get it on PC for a better experience :D .. So GoW PS4 has a chance of reaching that number.