October added

So needs 3.24m for Nov+Dec to draw level, an increase of about 38% from last year (Did 2.35m in 2017). It's certainly possible, but if Switch does win it won't be by much, will end the year with:

PS4: 5740k
Switch: 5400k - 5900k

I think the Switch is in for a 3,5-4M holiday season. All the signs points towards a huge holiday season for it.

Numbers from my behind:

Nov: ~1.3M 
Dec: ~ 2.5M

This ofc would be the best December this gen by a massive amount by any console and a good November to add. 
Is it optimistic? Maybe, but I think it's possible with the great WoM for Pokemon and the utter hype for Smash combined with Nintendos historically great December months.

Would be very surprising at this point if Switch didnt sell more than 5740k IMO.

Yeah, with insights how good Switch currently is selling in November (much better than last year in same time period), I would expect around 3.5m for Nov+Dec.

I like how you ignore smash bundle being counted for 1 day in october NPD. for all know that easily could have provided a 40k boost since it was sold it online way before it came out

I like how you ignore that I didnt include any of the PS4 bundles from 2015 either.

that makes sense since you did included a  nice list of why ps4 sold 275k in october but you failed to include switch biggest boost factor in October. it's only switches biggest game ever.  

What happened to Smash only selling 10-12 million units? That wouldn't make it the switch's biggest game 

im  thinking 12-15 million now, but it will diffidently have the biggest launch, it won't have the legs though.

My list is quite clear, games that rank in the NPD charts.

If you want to you can make a list of every PS4 bundle released in 2015 and I will gladly include them.