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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

JRPGfan on 24 October 2018
Kerotan said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I start to think this is out of Sony's hands now. If sales don't recover soon in expectation of Spiderman and RDR2, then a pricecut probably wouldn't cut it either.

That is, if there ain't shortages having a hand in this, of course. But I haven't heard anything about any shortages yet, so pretty doubtful

Looks like no price drop was needed. At least not pre holiday season. 

What month did I write that about? was it for september? O_O
Cuz if it was... damn, and PS4 pulled out 425k.

I must have wrote that when things where looking grim for the PS4 so hopefully that wasnt september.



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PortisheadBiscuit on 24 October 2018
Slarvax said:
zorg1000 said:

What does that mean?

I think GTA IV released, but the Wii still outsold both the PS360

Edit: holy cannoli the Wii sold >700k

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=26849

2008 was otherworldly from Nintendo, total slayage from Wii and DS.  



globalisateur on 24 October 2018
Mar1217 said:
RDR2 is in 3 days, however the PS4 does not move, while the Switch (mostly bundles) has some lift.

Even if totally outclassed, the Xbone has a stronger progression in the charts. Fallout 76 marketing ? Is RDR2 effect more pronounced on that platform ?

No. Xb1 have huge deals currently. 100$ off on all consoles when you buy RDR2.



Kerotan on 24 October 2018
JRPGfan said:
Kerotan said:

Looks like no price drop was needed. At least not pre holiday season. 

What month did I write that about? was it for september? O_O
Cuz if it was... damn, and PS4 pulled out 425k.

I must have wrote that when things where looking grim for the PS4 so hopefully that wasnt september.

Probably best not to judge the ps4 off a few slow months. You need to look at the bigger picture. 



Megiddo on 24 October 2018

This month is interesting. We already know Gamestop isn't the most trusted/reliable when it comes to large value SKUs like the anniversary PS4 edition for some bizarre reason or another sticking around far longer than it should. Most of Nintendo's pre-order points for this month were gained on Gamestop, so we'll see if it can regain some measure of reliability when October NPD results come out. Personally, I'm not holding my breath.



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zorg1000 on 24 October 2018
Megiddo said:
This month is interesting. We already know Gamestop isn't the most trusted/reliable when it comes to large value SKUs like the anniversary PS4 edition for some bizarre reason or another sticking around far longer than it should. Most of Nintendo's pre-order points for this month were gained on Gamestop, so we'll see if it can regain some measure of reliability when October NPD results come out. Personally, I'm not holding my breath.

Ya I really dont expect this month to be the most accurate. I would be surprised if PS4 doesnt win October.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

thismeintiel on 24 October 2018
zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:
This month is interesting. We already know Gamestop isn't the most trusted/reliable when it comes to large value SKUs like the anniversary PS4 edition for some bizarre reason or another sticking around far longer than it should. Most of Nintendo's pre-order points for this month were gained on Gamestop, so we'll see if it can regain some measure of reliability when October NPD results come out. Personally, I'm not holding my breath.

Ya I really dont expect this month to be the most accurate. I would be surprised if PS4 doesnt win October.

I could see the Switch winning Oct, but definitely not by the amount that the tool is showing.  It's predicting a ~100K+ between the two.  At most, I think the gap would be ~25K.



 

Oneeee-Chan!!! on 25 October 2018

Can't wait to see October results !



Mbolibombo on 25 October 2018
thismeintiel said:
zorg1000 said:

Ya I really dont expect this month to be the most accurate. I would be surprised if PS4 doesnt win October.

I could see the Switch winning Oct, but definitely not by the amount that the tool is showing.  It's predicting a ~100K+ between the two.  At most, I think the gap would be ~25K.

We shall see when the RDR2 bundle wreck havoc the last week or so for October NPD. It's going to sell a metric ton I'm sure.

I cant see the Switch win by this much either, it could honestly go both ways..  The most interesting month of the year, NPD wise I'd say.



Symbios63 on 25 October 2018

10/25/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 24 (-4) - 299.00$
2 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 28 (R) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 43 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 60 (+5) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 96 point (+96) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 104 + 66 + 41 = 211 points (-10)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 25 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 31 (-2) - 499.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 35 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 38 (+2) - 399.99$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 40 (-5) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 45 (-2) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 51 (-1) - 499.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 56 (+1) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 69 (-6) - 359.99$
10 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 77 (+3) - 299.99$
11 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 79 (-3) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 102 + 90 + 76 = 268 points (-) ; XBO : 62 + 50 + 24 + 22 = 158 points (-6) ; NS : 82 + 72 + 45 + 32 = 231 points (-17)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 4 (-1)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 7 (+2)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 11 (-1) - November 16th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 17 (-)
5 (+6) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (P) - 27 (+114)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 54 (-7)
7 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 (D) - 66 (N)
8 (+7) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves + RDR2 (D) - 69 (+130)
9 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves + RDR2 (P) - 75 (N)
10 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (D) - 81 (N)
11 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (SE) - 83 (N)
12 (-5) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 85 (-8)
13 (-7) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 92 (-21)
14 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 (P) - 103 (N)
15 (-6) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 106 (-1)
16 (-8) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 109 (-6)
17 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 (SE) - 125 (N)
18 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (UE) - 130 (N)
19 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 - 172 (N)
20 (-8) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 179 (-12)
21 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb + RDR2 (D) - 182 (N)
22 (-12) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 185 (-67)
23 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb + RDR2 (P) - 197 (N)

Out of Top 100 :

13 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 183 (+12)
14 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 192 (R) - November 9th

PS4 : 205 + 98 + 66 = 369 points (-14) ; XBO : 145 + 86 + 82 + 76 + 70 + 68 + 49 + 48 + 38 + 36 + 15 + 10 + 8 + 2 = 733 points (+603) ; NS : 195 + 170 + 60 + 46 + 11 = 482 points (-24)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 893.1 points (-35.4) ; Month Average : 816.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 619.1 points (+62.8) ; Month Average : 577.2 points/day ; 0.71 (-)
3 - XBO : 1081.1 points (+782.4) ; Month Average : 305.0 points/day ; 0.37 (+0.05)


Small bump for XBO...