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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

globalisateur said:
The fact that Amazon don't sell PS4 consoles anymore could be a problem in your prediction methodology.

That gets balanced out by the other shops. Gamestop in particular seems Playstation heavy, which partially might be because Amazon doesn't sell PS4 anymore



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06/16/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 29 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 55 (-4) - 449.99$ (-35.00$)
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 61 (-7) - 199.00$ (-57.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 46 + 40 = 86 points (-11) ; NS : 150 + 94 = 244 points (+24)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 2 (-) - 349.00$ (-50.00)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 5 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (-) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 21 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
9 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 55 (-) - 199.00$ (-80.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 190 + 106 = 501 points (-) ; XBO : 135 + 110 + 102 + 46 = 393 points (-) ; NS : 175 + 145 = 320 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 21 (+8) - 349.00$ (-50.00$)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 24 (+7) - 299.99$
3 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 42 (+7) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 93 (-2) - 299.00$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 138 (+29) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 150 (-1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 162 (+33) - 249.99$ (-50.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 160 + 155 + 26 = 341 points (+40) ; XBO : 110 + 32 + 20 = 162 points (+40) ; NS : 58 points (-2)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 441.2 points (+40.0) ; Month Average : 519.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 317.2 points (+17.2) ; Month Average : 355.3 points/day ; 0.68 (-)
3 - XBO : 309.4 points (+31.2) ; Month Average : 231.2 points/day ; 0.44 (+0.01)



06/17/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 30 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 53 (+2) - 449.99$ (-35.00$)
4 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 68 (N) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 74 (-13) - 199.00$ (-57.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 33 points (+33) ; XBO : 48 + 27 = 75 points (-11) ; NS : 140 + 92 = 232 points (-12)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 2 (-) - 349.00$ (-50.00)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 5 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (-) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 21 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
9 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 55 (-) - 199.00$ (-80.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 190 + 106 = 501 points (-) ; XBO : 135 + 110 + 102 + 46 = 393 points (-) ; NS : 175 + 145 = 320 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 17 (+4) - 349.00$ (-50.00$)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 23 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 28 (+14) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 74 (+19) - 299.00$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 108 (+30) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (+1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 109 (+53) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 143 (+7) - 299.99$
8 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 196 (R) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 155 + 29 = 354 points (+13) ; XBO : 145 + 47 + 46 = 238 points (+76) ; NS : 78 + 3 = 81 points (+23)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 480.6 points (+39.4) ; Month Average : 517.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 330.6 points (+13.4) ; Month Average : 353.5 points/day ; 0.68 (-)
3 - XBO : 376.6 points (+67.2) ; Month Average : 241.5 points/day ; 0.47 (+0.03)



Symbios63 said:
06/17/18 :

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 480.6 points (+39.4) ; Month Average : 517.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 330.6 points (+13.4) ; Month Average : 353.5 points/day ; 0.68 (-)
3 - XBO : 376.6 points (+67.2) ; Month Average : 241.5 points/day ; 0.47 (+0.03)

With how useless Amazon has been the last many months, I really enjoy these updates.
There still by far the best way of getting any "idea" of how things are going.

The graphs are wonderfull too, makes it so easy to understand the data you collect.
The Xbox managed to go past the Switch, the last few days.
PS4 is slowly climbing again, after that huge nosedive it took.

The monthly's are still the expected PS4>Switch>XB though, theres still a few weeks left in the month :)
Could be a close month between Switch & XB1.



JRPGfan said:

With how useless Amazon has been the last many months, I really enjoy these updates.
There still by far the best way of getting any "idea" of how things are going.

The graphs are wonderfull too, makes it so easy to understand the data you collect.
The Xbox managed to go past the Switch, the last few days.
PS4 is slowly climbing again, after that huge nosedive it took.

The monthly's are still the expected PS4>Switch>XB though, theres still a few weeks left in the month :)
Could be a close month between Switch & XB1.

Totally agree with you.

And I really never understood the popularity of those Amazon threads.



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JRPGfan said:
Symbios63 said:
06/17/18 :

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 480.6 points (+39.4) ; Month Average : 517.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 330.6 points (+13.4) ; Month Average : 353.5 points/day ; 0.68 (-)
3 - XBO : 376.6 points (+67.2) ; Month Average : 241.5 points/day ; 0.47 (+0.03)

With how useless Amazon has been the last many months, I really enjoy these updates.
There still by far the best way of getting any "idea" of how things are going
.

The graphs are wonderfull too, makes it so easy to understand the data you collect.
The Xbox managed to go past the Switch, the last few days.
PS4 is slowly climbing again, after that huge nosedive it took.

The monthly's are still the expected PS4>Switch>XB though, theres still a few weeks left in the month :)
Could be a close month between Switch & XB1.

@bold: before the Switch came, Amazon was very reliable at predicting the winner. Since then however, it's been more difficult. First because the Switch is constantly in front because it has much less versions as the others, thus being more concentrated at the front. And now from Sony being thrown out by Amazon for unknown reasons.

But I agree that having more shops as sources is always more reliable to track the sales - just look how wildly the ratio fluctuates between releases on COMG!

@italic: Only if the sale of both models continues throughout the month. If it ends earlier then the XBO will drop down again to about half the Switches' sales. And with how big the month ends for the Switch, it will still get very tough for the Xbox



06/18/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (+3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 29 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 48 (+5) - 449.99$ (-35.00$)
4 (+1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 59 (+15) - 199.00$ (-57.00)

Out of Top 100 :

4 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 68 (N) - 299.99$

PS4 : 0 points (-33) ; XBO : 56 + 42 = 98 points (+23) ; NS : 155 + 94 = 249 points (+17)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 2 (-) - 349.00$ (-50.00)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 5 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (-) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 21 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
9 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 55 (-) - 199.00$ (-80.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 190 + 106 = 501 points (-) ; XBO : 135 + 110 + 102 + 46 = 393 points (-) ; NS : 175 + 145 = 320 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 10 (+7) - 349.00$ (-50.00$)
2 (+1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 19 (+9) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 21 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 72 (+2) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 91 (+17) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 113 (-4) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
7 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 152 (+44) - 299.00$
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 157 (-14) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 160 + 22 = 372 points (+18) ; XBO : 165 + 60 + 44 = 269 points (+31) ; NS : 80 + 25 = 105 points (+24)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 472.2 points (-8.4) ; Month Average : 514.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 368.2 points (+37.6) ; Month Average : 354.5 points/day ; 0.69 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 426.0 points (+49.4) ; Month Average : 253.8 points/day ; 0.49 (+0.02)



Symbios63 said:
May Summary :

Amazon : 1) NS : 263.1 points/day (+13.4%) ; 2) XBO : 95.7 points/day (-17.0%) ; 3) PS4 : 45.7 points/day (-74.5%)
Amazon last month : 1) NS : 232.1 points/day ; 2) PS4 : 179.1 points/day ; 3) XBO : 115.3 points/day
Best Buy : 1) PS4 : 373.9 points/day (-19.0%) ; 2) NS : 289.8 points/day (-0.5%) ; 3) XBO : 288.5 points/day (+6.0%)
Best Buy last month : 1) PS4 : 461.4 points/day ; 2) NS : 291.3 points/day ; 3) XBO : 272.1 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 401.4 points/day (-16.6%) ; 2) NS : 119.7 points/day (+3.7%) ; 3) XBO : 82.8 points/day (-13.8%)
Gamestop last month : 1) PS4 : 481.1 points/day ; 2) NS : 115.4 points/day ; 3) XBO : 96.1 points/day

Overall : 1) PS4 : 512.7 points/day (-28.5% ; 1.00) ; 2) NS : 388.1 points/day (+8.0% ; 0.76) ; 3) XBO : 217.0 points/day (-10.6% ; 0.42)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 716.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 359.3 points/day (0.50) ; 3) XBO : 242.8 points/day (0.34)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 326k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 171k (0.52) ; 3) XBO : 134k (0.41)



Here is the summary for May. PS4 should win this one as well, but switch should be much closer. Ratio between PS4 and XBO should be similar to last month. Let's wait for reality check now...

PS4 Days of Play LE has accumulated 90 points at Best Buy and 910 points at Gamestop, we will have to do something with those but I am not sure how to do (maybe add them all on release date ?).

Don't worry about the little change for NS average since last update, it was just a small mistake that was corrected.

When will we get NPD results? Can't wait to see how the ratio holds up



Kind of crazy PS4 keeps it lead without any points from Amazon.

Did E3 delay NPD seems longer than normal for the wait.



So far, by the average, June will look like May. Little difference for more or less on platforms.
It remains to know how it was May.