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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

quickrick said:
Mr.GameCrazy said:

What was your bet with CG? I forgot.

people taking shots at me will be easily banned, and if i lose, shots will be taking at me more freely which they already are, lol.

Can you give more details about the bet?



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Mr.GameCrazy said:
quickrick said:

people taking shots at me will be easily banned, and if i lose, shots will be taking at me more freely which they already are, lol.

Can you give more details about the bet?

quickrick said: CGI-Quality said: Willing to place a bet on it? You win - you're immune to any and all thrashing from the site. My call. You lose, no one is moderated for having a go at you (within reason - but with much more leniency)! Deal? the first 3 months of 2018 ps4 vs switch? or jan npd vs ps4 2014? Ill take both. Alright. Remember - be a sport if you...

 

keep in mind i thought it was a 4 week period, so switch had to do  270k, i already knew it  didn't have a chance in hell, but it was a 5 week period, so i told him let's make it interesting and raise to 295k for 5 weeks, and he agreed.

145 (3)



Shadow1980 said:
Lawlight said:

You cannot compare the Switch’s first year to the PS4’s 2014 because the Switch had 2 major selling periods - the launch and the holidays vs the PS4’s holidays only. On top of that, the PS4 was $100 more expensive.

And the only the PS3 and the Xbox360 peaked later so 1 generation doesn’t make it the norm.

@Bolded. Uh, yeah, I can, because that's the time frame that makes the most sense. The only other alternative would be to compare the Switch's 2017 to the PS4's 2013, and while those were both launch years for those systems, we'd be comparing the Switch's 10-month period with the PS4's launch holiday. Not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. That's why comparing the Switch's 2017 with the PS4's 2014 makes more sense. While the Switch did launch in March, it sold about as much that month as one might expect for the whole of Q1 for a system with its level of sales. The Switch sold 910k that month, whereas the PS4 has ranged from 874k to 1007k for Q1 sales. That effectively levels out. That leaves us with both system's first full Q2+Q3 period, and their first full post-launch Q4. It's as close to an apples-to-apples comparison we can get.

And if you want to bring up pricing, well, that pretty much invalidates most comparisons between any two systems, because we haven't had two systems in one generation launch at the exact same price since the PS2 & OXbox.

 

Hiku said:

Since you seem to be aware of these things, what did sales look like for 3DS? If I recall correctly, it sold the most in its first 12 months?

"First 12 months"? No. That still goes to the PS4 this gen. Even without a full post-launch holiday period (which would represent months 13 & 14), the PS4 still outpaced the 3DS launch-aligned. Even if we compare the 3DS's 2011 with the PS4's 2014, which is a more apt comparison for the same reasons I explained to Lawlight above re: the Switch vs. the PS4, the 3DS still loses. The 3DS had a lackluster launch month, and its baseline sales weren't all that great either until it got a price drop. I personally don't like doing straight launch-aligned comparisons of systems that were holiday launches with systems that launched in the first half of the year, but if you insist, then the PS4 still wins regardless.

Also, the Switch sold better last year than the 3DS did in 2011, as well, at least for the year as a whole. Here's a comparison of the Switch's 2017 with the 3DS's 2011, with the PS4's 2014 thrown in for good measure:

B

Nopes. You say it makes the most sense because that’s the best we have. It still doesn’t mean that they’re comparable. If the PS4 launched in March 2014, 2014 sales would have been much higher than it actually was. Even your graph shows that the Switch had 2 peaks last year.



Lawlight said:
Shadow1980 said:

@Bolded. Uh, yeah, I can, because that's the time frame that makes the most sense. The only other alternative would be to compare the Switch's 2017 to the PS4's 2013, and while those were both launch years for those systems, we'd be comparing the Switch's 10-month period with the PS4's launch holiday. Not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. That's why comparing the Switch's 2017 with the PS4's 2014 makes more sense. While the Switch did launch in March, it sold about as much that month as one might expect for the whole of Q1 for a system with its level of sales. The Switch sold 910k that month, whereas the PS4 has ranged from 874k to 1007k for Q1 sales. That effectively levels out. That leaves us with both system's first full Q2+Q3 period, and their first full post-launch Q4. It's as close to an apples-to-apples comparison we can get.

And if you want to bring up pricing, well, that pretty much invalidates most comparisons between any two systems, because we haven't had two systems in one generation launch at the exact same price since the PS2 & OXbox.

 

"First 12 months"? No. That still goes to the PS4 this gen. Even without a full post-launch holiday period (which would represent months 13 & 14), the PS4 still outpaced the 3DS launch-aligned. Even if we compare the 3DS's 2011 with the PS4's 2014, which is a more apt comparison for the same reasons I explained to Lawlight above re: the Switch vs. the PS4, the 3DS still loses. The 3DS had a lackluster launch month, and its baseline sales weren't all that great either until it got a price drop. I personally don't like doing straight launch-aligned comparisons of systems that were holiday launches with systems that launched in the first half of the year, but if you insist, then the PS4 still wins regardless.

Also, the Switch sold better last year than the 3DS did in 2011, as well, at least for the year as a whole. Here's a comparison of the Switch's 2017 with the 3DS's 2011, with the PS4's 2014 thrown in for good measure:

B

Nopes. You say it makes the most sense because that’s the best we have. It still doesn’t mean that they’re comparable. If the PS4 launched in March 2014, 2014 sales would have been much higher than it actually was. Even your graph shows that the Switch had 2 peaks last year.

I agree with you 100%. ps4 would have did 1.8 million easy for march and april if they had stock of course, jan and feb, doesn't compare to a system launch with a huge demand. 



Alkibiádēs said:
Lawlight said:

You cannot compare the Switch’s first year to the PS4’s 2014 because the Switch had 2 major selling periods - the launch and the holidays vs the PS4’s holidays only. On top of that, the PS4 was $100 more expensive.

And the only the PS3 and the Xbox360 peaked later so 1 generation doesn’t make it the norm.

That doesn't matter in the slightest. That's a normal price for a home console. $300 for a handheld however is very expensive and the Switch is currently competing against a cheaper PS4 and Xbox One. And it's still kicking ass despite all this. 

PS4 had it very easy actually. Its main competition was a weaker home console that was $100 more expensive and the Wii U.

How many consoles in their 5th year are sold at $299? So no, it’s not normal. The Switch is also a console so $299 in its first year makes sense. And based on Amazon, it seems that the Switch is currently cheaper than the PS4. I think the Switch has it easier now - its biggest competitor is a similar priced console in its 5th year. Should be easy sailing.



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LipeJJ said:
Farsala said:

Unless the Switch sold more than 340k, PS4's 1st January was actually better with stock issues.

271k/4 weeks, 67.75k/ week, if extrapolated to 5 weeks then it would be ~339k @$400.

Switch 5 weeks? 340k @ $300?

You mean... Jan 2014? And... what does a specific month has to do with what I said? I said the first year (12 months) were the worst for PS4. It just got better and better sales over time, which is usually the trend for a console. Doesn't make a difference if it sold more or less in one month, which it even didn't btw, when we're talking about a year.

What are you talking about worst? The first 12 months for the PS4 were pretty good in the US. I would be impressed if Switch pulls off a month like Destiny month. (540k in 5 weeks) And it has been pretty steady and close otherwise.

First 12 months PS4: 4.8m

2nd 12 months: 4.5m

3rd 12 months: 5.53m

4th 12 months:  5.36m* more estimated



 

Farsala said:
LipeJJ said:

You mean... Jan 2014? And... what does a specific month has to do with what I said? I said the first year (12 months) were the worst for PS4. It just got better and better sales over time, which is usually the trend for a console. Doesn't make a difference if it sold more or less in one month, which it even didn't btw, when we're talking about a year.

What are you talking about worst? The first 12 months for the PS4 were pretty good in the US. I would be impressed if Switch pulls off a month like Destiny month. (540k in 5 weeks) And it has been pretty steady and close otherwise.

First 12 months PS4: 4.8m

2nd 12 months: 4.5m

3rd 12 months: 5.53m

4th 12 months:  5.36m* more estimated

I mean... worst worldwise. Sorry, I should have clarified that. Anyway, even in US first and second years were almost tied and then it went up. That's the normal. and that was my whole point (that PS4 being 3 or 4 years old is actually good for it, not bad, like Celador suggested in my quote).



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

LipeJJ said:

 

Farsala said:

What are you talking about worst? The first 12 months for the PS4 were pretty good in the US. I would be impressed if Switch pulls off a month like Destiny month. (540k in 5 weeks) And it has been pretty steady and close otherwise.

First 12 months PS4: 4.8m

2nd 12 months: 4.5m

3rd 12 months: 5.53m

4th 12 months:  5.36m* more estimated

I mean... worst worldwise. Sorry, I should have clarified that. Anyway, even in US first and second years were almost tied and then it went up. That's the normal. and that was my whole point (that PS4 being 3 or 4 years old is actually good for it, not bad, like Celador suggested in my quote).

I would be very happy if I were Sony and the console went up in its 5th year, but that would be abnormal. But like I said it hardly went up in the US. WW of course it did, and in Japan it went very far up.

A console on its 51st month / 5th January at this price in the US certainly shouldn't be doing this well.



Very pleased to see the industry thriving! Best January since 2011 for both hardware and software. Revenue of over $1 billion in just 1 area and in just 1 non-holiday month.

All of the big 3 had a strong month.
1. Nintendo: Switch was the best-selling console
2. Sony: PS4 generated the highest revenue
3. Microsoft: XB1 had its best January since its launch in 2013

 

The publishers and publishing units are also thriving these years.

Capcom: Monster Hunter: World fastest selling Capcom game ever
Nintendo: Breath of the Wild fastest selling Zelda game ever + Odyssey fastest selling 3D Mario game ever
Square Enix: Final Fantasy XV fastest selling Final Fantasy game ever
Sega: Persona 5 best selling Persona game ever
Blizzard: Overwatch best selling Blizzard console game ever
Sony: Uncharted 4 fastest selling Sony game ever + Horizon: Zero Dawn fastest selling new Sony IP ever
Bandai Namco: Dark Souls III fastest selling Bandai Namco game in the west ever
Ubisoft: The Division fastest selling Ubisoft game ever + fastest selling new IP ever
Bethesda: Fallout 4 fastest selling Bethesda game ever
Warner Games: Batman Arkham Knight fastest selling Warner game ever
Activision: Destiny 2nd fastest selling new IP ever
Take-Two: Grand Theft Auto V 3rd best selling game ever with 90 mill sold
Microsoft: Minecraft 2nd best selling game ever with 144 mill sold



peachbuggy said:
Megiddo said:
PSVR is not a console, it's a peripheral. Really doubt NPD takes it into account for console sales.

It was mentioned on their notes on venturebeat.

The PSVR has be been counted separately since it came out.