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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

Nuvendil said:

Being under 1 year old is not a help.  Consoles peak at year 2, 3, or 4, not 1 typically.  

And no one is saying DBFZ and MHW are massive system sellers.  But they were the biggest sellers of the month and they were more than the Switch had pushing systems.  That is, nothing.

But thats the thing isn't it? It doesn't matter if they were the biggest sellers of the month if they aren't system sellers. They have just sold really well to an already existing install base. 

And this talk about being under one year or it peaking here or there.... the way i see sales is that sales are sales until it isn't. 

My point is, I strongly doubt there was anyone saying the PS4 would win the month because of this or that game; hell I think more than 99% of this site probably all felt the NS would win. So the only people that seem to be surprised about it are seemingly basing it off something that no one really actually thought would be a factor with regards to driving sales.

Which makes very little sense to me. The NS won, thats great. Its not somehow better because MHW released in the same month.



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Alkibiádēs said:

That doesn't matter in the slightest. That's a normal price for a home console. $300 for a handheld however is very expensive and the Switch is currently competing against a cheaper PS4 and Xbox One. And it's still kicking ass despite all this. 

PS4 had it very easy actually. Its main competition was a weaker home console that was $100 more expensive and the Wii U.

First, I guess this is the beauty of the switch. When its convenient its a handheld or a home console or a hybrid. Literally.

Cheaper PS4 and XB1. Nice observation...... 25M and 22M respective install bases and 4+yrs old each vs under 1Yr old 5M strong console. Yeah, none of that matters at all.

PS4 had it easy? Its main competition also shared more than 90% of its game library and for the most part had feature and function parity. There is a reason they are called HD twins you know? Heres a question...... do you think sales of the NS would be as it is now if it were a dedicated home console? Think about that one.



SWORDF1SH said:
Nuvendil said:

Being under 1 year old is not a help.  Consoles peak at year 2, 3, or 4, not 1 typically.  

And no one is saying DBFZ and MHW are massive system sellers.  But they were the biggest sellers of the month and they were more than the Switch had pushing systems.  That is, nothing.

But you have to admit that the PS4 in its 4th year to be selling at 299 and selling pretty well is impressive... no?

It is, never said it wasn't. But that doesn't mean the Switch isn't also doing something very impressive.  Those two facts aren't mutually exclusive. 



Intrinsic said:
Nuvendil said:

Being under 1 year old is not a help.  Consoles peak at year 2, 3, or 4, not 1 typically.  

And no one is saying DBFZ and MHW are massive system sellers.  But they were the biggest sellers of the month and they were more than the Switch had pushing systems.  That is, nothing.

But thats the thing isn't it? It doesn't matter if they were the biggest sellers of the month if they aren't system sellers. They have just sold really well to an already existing install base. 

And this talk about being under one year or it peaking here or there.... the way i see sales is that sales are sales until it isn't. 

My point is, I strongly doubt there was anyone saying the PS4 would win the month because of this or that game; hell I think more than 99% of this site probably all felt the NS would win. So the only people that seem to be surprised about it are seemingly basing it off something that no one really actually thought would be a factor with regards to driving sales.

Which makes very little sense to me. The NS won, thats great. Its not somehow better because MHW released in the same month.

Many of the people who thought PS4 would win used MHW & DBZ as reasons.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic said:
Alkibiádēs said:

That doesn't matter in the slightest. That's a normal price for a home console. $300 for a handheld however is very expensive and the Switch is currently competing against a cheaper PS4 and Xbox One. And it's still kicking ass despite all this. 

PS4 had it very easy actually. Its main competition was a weaker home console that was $100 more expensive and the Wii U.

First, I guess this is the beauty of the switch. When its convenient its a handheld or a home console or a hybrid. Literally.

Cheaper PS4 and XB1. Nice observation...... 25M and 22M respective install bases and 4+yrs old each vs under 1Yr old 5M strong console. Yeah, none of that matters at all.

PS4 had it easy? Its main competition also shared more than 90% of its game library and for the most part had feature and function parity. There is a reason they are called HD twins you know? Heres a question...... do you think sales of the NS would be as it is now if it were a dedicated home console? Think about that one.

Hybrid consoles are superior to traditional home consoles, so obviously it sells more. 

If they share 90% of their library and one console is $100 more expensive and the games run worse to boot... Yeah, that's what they call easy competition. No console in the history of gaming had easier competition than the PS4.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

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Nuvendil said:
SWORDF1SH said:

But you have to admit that the PS4 in its 4th year to be selling at 299 and selling pretty well is impressive... no?

It is, never said it wasn't. But that doesn't mean the Switch isn't also doing something very impressive.  Those two facts aren't mutually exclusive. 

The Switch is doing amazing. Never said or hinted it wasn't. 



RolStoppable said:

Assumption: Switch sold exactly 300k units at an average selling price (ASP) of $300. Switch hardware revenue is $90m.
Modifier: Switch and PS4 hardware revenue was identical. The public NPD release says the consoles were within 3%.

If ASP of the PS4 was $320: 281k units.
ASP of $330: 273k.
ASP of $340: 265k.
ASP of $350: 257k.

A PS4 SKU split of 70% Slim at $300, 20% Pro at $400 and 10% MHW bundle at $450 results in an ASP of $335.

Nice work 



SWORDF1SH said:
Nuvendil said:

It is, never said it wasn't. But that doesn't mean the Switch isn't also doing something very impressive.  Those two facts aren't mutually exclusive. 

The Switch is doing amazing. Never said or hinted it wasn't. 

Perhaps not but a lot of people seem to be implying that somehow this month was insignificant.  First it's, "it didn't beat the 3DS's first January!", then it's "well the PS4 is old!" And when you compare the Switch's 2017 to PS4's 2014, it isn't fair because even though the PS4 had 12 months it was . . . more expensive?  

But the facts are these:  the PS4 has come off it's strongest year yet, regardless of what age it is, and the Switch has been competitive with that.  And the PlayStation brand is at its peak.  The Switch, in it's first 10 months, went toe to toe with a system in its peak year that is trending to be one of the best selling home consoles of all time and has a massive backlog and a host of 3rd party partners and held its own.  Just as it's impressive the PS4 has managed to be at peak strength this late in its life, it's impressive the Switch has held its own against it in that time.  And it would be impressive for any system.



Alkibiádēs said:

Hybrid consoles are superior to traditional home consoles, so obviously it sells more. 

If they share 90% of their library and one console is $100 more expensive and the games run worse to boot... Yeah, that's what they call easy competition. No console in the history of gaming had easier competition than the PS4.

Lol... now you are just trolling...... unless I am mistaken tho. Didn't the XB1 get a price drop less than 4 months after launch and another a few months later?

Lastly, you do realize that the XB1 held its own in NA right? So obviously it wasnt that easy. However if we are talking worldwide? Then sorry to break it to you, the PS4 is still the best selling console on most months....especially january 2018.

RolStoppable said:

Assumption: Switch sold exactly 300k units at an average selling price (ASP) of $300. Switch hardware revenue is $90m.
Modifier: Switch and PS4 hardware revenue was identical. The public NPD release says the consoles were within 3%.

If ASP of the PS4 was $320: 281k units.
ASP of $330: 273k.
ASP of $340: 265k.
ASP of $350: 257k.

A PS4 SKU split of 70% Slim at $300, 20% Pro at $400 and 10% MHW bundle at $450 results in an ASP of $335.

I could be mistaken.... but when they say hardware, don't they also means console related hardware like controllers and stuff?



zorg1000 said:

Many of the people who thought PS4 would win used MHW & DBZ as reasons.

Many? Well then i must have been living under a rock being that this thread was the first I ever heard of it.